I'm more than curious...I'm in a large, large city and I am trying to determine when to leave with my grandbaby. Large family to follow (probably later.) Any time frames for evacuation?

-- meandi (Viks2000@aol.com), September 28, 1999

Answers

Chances are that when it becomes obvious, it will be too late. Before Dec. 28, sooner if you can would be my guess. Then again, your guess is probably as good as mine?????

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), September 28, 1999.

Whenever you all plan on having Christmas, hopefully OUT OF TOWN, and hopefully where you are planning to go to, would be a good time.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 28, 1999.

Personally, if I were going to bail, I'd do it the week after Thanksgiving. *IF* some kind of "preemptive" restriction on movement were to take place, I would expect it either on December 1st, or Dec 24th. (The latter for two reasons: 1) the Christmas "shopping season" is done, and 2) most people are at home or with close family.)

MOO.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), September 28, 1999.

Get a copy of "DeLorme Atlas & Gazetteer" for you area. It will show you the locations of all of the out-of-the-way roads. Begin now to move supplies to your alternate location. Make your final move no later than your common sense says for your area. Watch for public reactions to any y2k stimulus and adjust your plans accordingly.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), September 28, 1999.

I would bail out before Thanksgiving, that will give you more time to get settled in. I'm outside of S.F. and can imagine what a nightmare it is when everyone decides to bail out at the same time. I commute 100 miles round trip M-F & can write a book on the disasters I've driven around. The Oct 89 earthquake took a week before I started to commute again. Think it all out now!

-- Judy (dodgeball@aol.com), September 28, 1999.

Just one question. Where are all those people in metro areas going to bail to? Sure there are a few that will have family farms, or family "out in the country," but the vast majority of people have nowhere to bail to? Am I missing something here?

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), September 28, 1999.

Meandi,

It's truly a judgement call. The factors to consider would include whether residing at your alternate location will a major inconvenience. If not, leave the city relatively sooner than later. OTOH, if you want to stay until "the last minute", you will want to keep ever alert to any indications of incipient problems, and also to have planned alternate routes and/or alternate means of travel.

Best wishes whatever you decide.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 28, 1999.

Jim the Window Washer,

I would guess that, even if the vast majority had no particular place to which to evacuate, there could be severe congestion if only lets say 15% of the population of a large city attempted to leave suddenly. Severe unplanned congestion can lead to enough vehicles running out of fuel that highways become totally blocked. There are various ways in which things can go downhill quickly when large numbers of people suddenly change their habits.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 28, 1999.

Jerry, I agree that it doesn't take much to cut off major roads out of metro areas.

What I don't understand is why any significant portion of the population would leave the metro areas. The only thing that comes to mind is if they are scared for their lives and/or starving. It ain't going to happen before Y2K unless major failures start happening ahead of the rollover. People will bail when they understand that the cities are a lost cause, dangerous, and have no food. After the rollover.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), September 28, 1999.

Jim,

In my area (mostly farms and small towns)there are alot of young adults planning to move back with their parents when things get bad.Some have already put house trailers on their parents farms and had large propane tanks filled.

My friend in California knows she is welcome to stay with me if it starts to get rough where she is.I think there are alot of people planing quitely to go elsewhere.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.com), September 28, 1999.

Jim,

I think there might be some pre-rollover events in some cities that might encourage getting out of town. One would be a late December rush on groceries. If grocery store shelves were cleaned out for a few days, many folks may get restless, (and you can finish this sentence as you will).

Another kind of thing that I think may occur is some combination of indications that city and/or state officials are preparing for panic in the city. If such indications become evident, some folks may get the hint and .....

As for after rollover, place your bets.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 28, 1999.

Thanks everyone. I guess I'm on course according to y/our projections. Does anyone think a pre-event will happen? I keep getting the feeling that the gov does...is the military on alert? I seem to remember a New Zealand news article that mentioned the y2k rollover dates as 10/1/99-3/31/00 and that Clinton may put the mil on alert.

PS-My family went thru the evacuation for Hurr. Floyd. It took them 2 hours to get off the N. FL island--usually a 10-15 min. drive. The back roads were as packed as the interstates. My sister drove inland but near Charleston (where it was projected to hit following night), accidentally found a hotel,then returned back to N. Fl early next morning. She advised that it was like a scene from Independence Day. Theirs was the only car on the road going south. Cars littered the highway on the reverse side of the interstate...out-of-gas, radiator problems, etc. Little or no food was available (7-11 type if you were lucky) and gas was either not available or the lines were enormous. Huge problem with toilets. You might want to carry an alternate if you leave when crowded. Best of luck to everyone. M

-- Meandi (Viks2000@aol.com), September 28, 1999.