Western Half of the US need not worry about Y2K

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Before the end of November, the awaited big one will finally occur. Yes, that is correct. The major fault lines in California are going to slide to the tune of an 8. The repercussions will cause a ripple/domino effect in that the major fault running through Northern Utah will also reverberate at such a magnitude that the faults running through the Yellowstone park area will do likewise. Entire cities are going to collapse. (Parts of SLC were built on top of a dry river bed beneath the city.) The severe shaking will cause a sink hole affect.

The ensuing damage will include tsunami's that will wash away 100's of 1,000's of homes within miles of the western coast of the Pacific Ocean.

There are going to be millions of casualities, and millions of homeless citizens. There will be no electrical power in the western half of the United States for several weeks, except perhaps in Montana, which is one of few states that has no nuclear energy sources, and is one state that creates hydro-electrical energy. This being that any of their own rivers and dams survive.

The massive amount of refugees that will attempt to flee towards the midwest will so overwhelm local resources that road blocks will be set up, and military bases established to create refugee camps along the borders.

For the survivors of this catastrophe, if they managed to create a bug-out-bag ahead of time, and have some stored provisions that they are able to salvage, they will survive, if they live through the ensuing pestilence. The rest are going to experience hunger and thrist,...and death.

-- C. Gerges (seismicstudy@quake.sci), September 23, 1999


Well gee whiz thanks for that cheery picture.

Gonna go visit a burns ward now & have me some good laughs.

Sick sick sick...

-- doom (gloom@doom.gloom), September 23, 1999.

Thank You Jean Dixon...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 23, 1999.

That thrist'll getcha every time.

-- Ranger (OneRanger@OneRiot.net), September 23, 1999.

Do tell us what this prediction is based on. Did this come to you in a dream, is it based on scientific research, did your dog tell you, bones creaking, or was it during a drug enduced haze? Jim Berkland says Dec 23, something about the tides and moon, so why are you a month early?

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), September 23, 1999.

Cascadia is expecting a Big Subduction Shaker @ 9+. We're ready for that. But not for Y2K, which has a different humanimal reactionary element.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 23, 1999.

WOW!!! Really???!?!?!?!?! OH MY GOD, I'm glad I prepared!!! Thanks for the info Mr. Gerges!!! I know you wouldn't steer us wrong. Please keep us updated on any more details you might have about this. Millions of lives could be saved!!

-- (another@stupid.doomer), September 23, 1999.

If this is a joke,you are sick!If you are serious what are your credentials and what lead up to this scenario?

-- maggie (aaaa@aaa.com), September 23, 1999.

Brian saved articles about Cascadia expectations. Founded on scientific geological studies. But they all say they can't predict the exact time or place.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 23, 1999.

Interestingly, CAL TECH was out yesterday (9/22) in the local media warning about a heightened chance of a large magnitude quake.

C.G., I'm planning a little surprise b-day gathering for my wife's #35 around the 8th of November. Hope it isn't until after =^)



-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

I just found out we are all going to die. It is totally true. Statistics support this. Almost 100 percent of the people born before 1900 are ALREADY dead. Oh my God. It seems inescapable. Any ideas?

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

Is this a psychic prediction, or is it based on some scientific theory that the majority of us are clueless about?

We have the death toll in Turkey, and now Taiwan. Could Tinseltown be next? I for one, do not believe in any of the psychic mumble jumble. If all of the psychic powers to be can't produce the knife that slashed Nicole, then it's all a bunch of lies.

However, let's not dismiss Gerges entirely. Seismology, like all sciences, has evolved tremendously in the past 20 years with advances in technology that allow scientists to learn new truths about our world that were just guesses a few years ago. There may be hidden truth in what is actually stated by C. Gerges. Does anyone else that reads here know "for a fact" about the sink hole allegation?

-- Julie (Psychichotline@talk2me.com), September 23, 1999.

Could someone give me the longitude and lattitude for the Turkey (earthquake epicenter)and Salt Lake City ? Please.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.com), September 23, 1999.

This guy may be on to something. The only problem is when it will happen!

-- r.restaino (rrest@rjr100.usa.net), September 23, 1999.

In that case, I hereby bequeath my duct tape to Deedah. My vitamins are to be evenly distributed among Chris's husband and Flint's wife.

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

I'm not really into this stuff, but FWIW, I heard a guy on Art Bell last night talking about a major "worldwide" quake on May 5 next year, something to do with the planets being aligned. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

Julie, In answer to your question, the answer is YES. I live in the Salt Lake Valley. Back in the late 80's when N. Calif. had their quake which collasped the freeway, there was a week long special on the local CBS affiliate KSL T.V.

The Wasatch fault line holds the potential to do as much damage to Salt Lake City Utah area, as does the San Andres does to California. Yes, much of Salt Lake City was built over an underground dry river bed. The Great Salt Lake was once a fresh water lake that covered much of the region. It was discovered in the 1800's by Captain Bonneville and named Lake Bonneville. It receded long ago and is now just a stinky dead sea of sorts. But in answer to your original question, the answer is an affirmative yes, and according to the experts, the scenario that C. Gerges painted is very likely.

-- Michael (KSLTV@SLCUT.com), September 23, 1999.

Gerges, I can act on my feelings when I hear something like this. Just like y2k, I heard about it and instantly knew this was for real. I get the same feeling from your post, because I have heard about this fault line many years ago, being predicted to cause major tragedy before the year 2000. I use to read everything I could find on earthquakes because I lived in southern California during one of the larger quakes in the seventies. Made a believer out of me to hit the road.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), September 23, 1999.

There was a geologist on television last night who is an expert in earthquakes......he stated that 1999 has been an average year for the number and severity of earthquakes so far.

Unfortunately some of the more serious ones have occured near major population centers.

Statistically speaking, yes, we will likely experience some more large earthquakes later this year.....could be more or less than normal.....who knows!!

We could all pull a 'St. Francis' and name some cities.......if enough of us try it, by the law of averages some of us will actually correctly name a city.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 23, 1999.

This info is from an astrology magazine(1986).

Salt Lake City has one of the largest fault systems in the world.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.co), September 23, 1999.

Last spring, the scope of the Marine Corp's urban training gave coastal cities as the environment of the exercise.

-- if (memory@serves.right), September 23, 1999.

Is it any wonder that Ed Yourdon moved to a secluded area of New Mexico to start over? Hmmmmmn.

-- Marc (Marc@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

...the Velveeta goes to Gayla; field guides to Lon's evil twin; canned honey to Paul Davis; the old dog to Old Git - along with all my worldly tinfoil, including loafpans and roast pans...

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

Why would an 8 mag earthquake cause a tsunami,with such damage but,the 7.6 mag EQ in taiwan caused none?

If this is true, it would explain to me about the preps for mass evacuations.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.com), September 23, 1999.

Folks on the left coast,

I picked up a brochure about tsunami risks and preps from our local fire department within the last year { I KNOW it's around here somewhere }. It is definitely something to become aware of and factor into personal emergency plans and preps.


The USGS has some interesting links dealing with this topic. Here is a links page I turned up quickly that looks like it has info for those of you on the Atlantic:


-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

Maggie, To the untrained eye the difference between 7.6 and 8.0 look like four tenths of a whole number. Not so when talking about the damage that is caused from an earthquake. The difference is phenomenonal! The damage difference is horrific. And BTW, an 8 could cause a tsunami, so prepare accordingly.

-- Floyd (seismology@quakestudy.sci), September 23, 1999.


New Madrid, Missouri Seismic Zone Information & History

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), September 23, 1999.

Remember when the doomsdayers were saying that the "big one" in Calif. was going to cause everthing west of the San Andreas Fault to fall into the Pacific? NOT! Everything EAST of the San Andreas is going to fall into the Atlantic. Sorry guys, but I READ this somewhere. Darn, I know that that rag is around here somewhere.


-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 23, 1999.

A magnitude 8 quake in the U.S. would cause a Tsumani that comes INTO the West Coast??? I don't get it. I though Tsumanis were caused by large OFF-SHORE quakes.

Oh well, live and learn...


-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), September 23, 1999.

1 0 Largest U.S. Earthquakes

And each one of us could blow an aneurism in our brains at any second. Ain't self-awareness grand? LOL

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), September 23, 1999.

In the words of a classic 60's song:

"Day after day, more people come to LA. Shhhh! Dontcha tell anybody, the whole place shakin'away! Where can you go when there's no San Diego? Shhhh! Better get ready to tie up the boat in Idaho."

FYI reference the Marines training for "coastal incursions":

If San Diego gets whacked by an 8.0, the Corps loses both Camp Pendleton and MCAS Miramar (i.e., a fairly significant part of its forces) and the Navy loses one of its primary ports. Increased quake risks will not go unnoticed by .mil types 'round here.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 23, 1999.

Thanks for the information,I really appreciate it.

Flora and Floyd the information you provided answered my question.I understand now how bad it could be when a large earthquake happens.I"m not concered about me but for otheers that live on the west coast.

Donna,the info is close to home.I live in the SE part of Missouri.I moved here after the Northridge earthquake,then had to laugh when I remembered about the New Madrid fault.

What do you all think of the chances the original post is true?

I know for a fact a friend of mine could tell (within 3 days)of an earthquake coming and the intensity.He would have physical symptoms before the event.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.com), September 23, 1999.

If this was St. Francis, I might buy it. If not then are you a .mil who's aware of the Tesla Quake Ray story?

Story told to me by former dot.mil goes like this:

Taiwanese quake was man-made. Defocussed the sabre rattles in a hurry. It's either us or the Chinese who did it.

Sorry but this conspiracy shit's getting a little thick for me.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999.

I'm scared shitless as hell and I won't take it anymore!

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), September 23, 1999.


Quite right about my page

Quake forecast shifts to land

It only deals with the Pacific northwest but we could have the biggest disaster in recent memory. C. Gerges seems to be more of an alarmist, predicting quakes is a rather foolish waste of mental resources. But preparing for one is not.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 23, 1999.

Flora, fine on the dog--does he like cats?--and we always need tinfoil (those hats wear out fast, as you know). BTW, do you happen to have any dehydrated mud?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 23, 1999.

An alarmist (a), can be a very positive thing. (Paul Revere) Especially if it wakes someone into taking positive action to increase their chances for survival through sound preparation, (p). This can lead to survival (s).

Therefore, (a) + (p) = (s) in this equation.

-- GeeWiz (imaginery@numbers.math), September 23, 1999.

Could the San Andreas fault slipping also trigger any under the ocean faults near the pacific coastal area? Just wondering.

-- Marc (Marc@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

Gee thanks Donna.

Look how many times California shows up in your 1 0 Largest U.S. Earthquakes list.

I kinda like keeping an eye on this puppy, just to see the global shaker scene...

Global Seismic Monitor (great map) ...


Phew... awful lot of action along the other side of the Pacific Rim.

One wonders if its catching.

Diane, sitting lightly in CA

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.


He adores everybody & everythang, a truly precious beast.

Alas, my mud is all rehydrated at the moment. The midden mud has a particularly lovely effect with tiny shell flecks reflecting sparkles of light contrasted against the dark grain of the dirt, but I don't think it has the staying power of your clay.


We're in fault heaven out here, check out John Mcphee's "Assembling California". The author has written some other terrific titles regarding the geology of other areas, give yourself a treat and check one out.

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

Ok..I gotta jump in hear. Raised in LA area, lived in Wa and Alaska so been around a few quakes. Y'all remember reading Edgar Cayce's predictions and the map that cut through just south of Canada on the west coast and goes east over into Nebraska and then runs south and cuts back west around San Diego? Every thing west of there was to fall into the ocean. He foresaw ocean going ships in the ports of Nebraska. My question has always been where is it going to fall to??? I do follow my friend Jim Berkland who does predictions but does it based on scientific stuff, primarily earth tides, which are different than ocean tides. There are usually two "windows" a month, one usually stronger than the other, for earth quakes. These are based on earth tides. He is pretty darn accurate too. You can check out his web site at www.sysgyjob.com/index.shtml.


-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

Couple of answers - though the same could "general" prediction could be made for several areas - on a line about under the St Lawrence River, for example, there have been a series of small quakes for years. Does this mean the Canadian Shield is breaking apart and we should expect to see Canada go north any time soon?

Yes - a quake in CA (on the San Andreas - if it were close to the ocean, could cause a tsunami in the Pacific. For example, the Easter Sunday quake in Alsaka caused waves in both Japan, the Northwest, and in CA. Where any given quake does or does not depends on local conditions: the Taiwan quake just didn't happen to cause one. In any case, Salt Lake City doesn't need to worry about a tsunami, but if the dams and fill near the Salt Lake degrade, there could be local problems.

Yes. There is a "pattern" of major quakes from the Yellowstone Park in Montana down through IH and NV to Southern CA. (The new volcano brew in the Mammoth Lakes area is a symptom of this.) This "zone" of faults intersects the San Andreas fault just east of Los Angeles and San Diego. Theorectically, yes, the US could divide there, but look for it in the next 250,000 years, not in the next millinium.

Tsunami's rarely exceed 50-75 feet in height above sea level. damage in CA, WA, and OR from any earthquake would be limited to the "low" areas - though of course this does include thousands of acres in the LA and SFO areas that are vunerable.

While on duty in Vallejo, we regularly got tsunami warnings from any sea-side earthquake in the Pacific Rim. These warning times range from several hours to several dozen hours. (The wave damage from a quake close by (within 30-60 miles) couldn't be warned about ahead of time, but then if it were close by, you could feel the earthquake itself.)

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 23, 1999.

Another thought to those people that are actually preparing for Y2K and do not believe your government is being completely forthright with the entire truth of the matter...

Let us suppose that there were some validity to this argument that a scientist in seismology could with a fair degree of accuracy predict within a fourteen day window, where an earthquake would hit, and approximately how hard it would hit.

Do any of you honestly believe that the "powers that be" would really and effectively try to mass relocate millions of citizens from their homes and businesses based on the scientific communities probable hunch? No, even if the "powers that be" knew this to be true, they would be silent about it, and use mop up procedures later. Hurricane Floyd was the largest evacuation in U.S. History. In retrospect, it would pale compared to even trying to relocate 1/10th of the state of California.

We alone are responsible for us. I totally disagree with Mara Wayne's cynical attitude posted near the beginning of this post. Yeah, we are all going to die, this is a fact. So what? In the meantime lets live, and take out some life insurance in the form of personal preps, whether it is Y2K, hurricane, tornado, flood, whatever.

I guarentee you that even though Hurricane Floyd and the flood aftermath destoyed about a billion dollars worth of property, I guarentee you that someone there went back to what is left of their home and found their plastic drinking containers intact, along with properly prepared food storage, and other preps. Not everything there was completely destroyed. These people are not going to be near the drain on the tax payer as those who were preparing for Y2K properly, and I am quite sure they are darn glad they did.

-- Marc (Marc@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

The SoCal article referred to...

Wednesday, September 22, 1999

Future Quake Toll to Worsen, Experts Say
By ROBERT LEE HOTZ, Times Science Writer

http:// www.latimes.com/search/findcgi?action=View&VdkVgwKey= %2E%2E%2F%2E%2E%2Fvol7%2FCNS%5FDAYS%2F990922%2Ft000084913%2Ehtml& DocOffset=13&DocsFound=34&QueryZip=earthquake&Collection=Hunter& SortSpec=Modified+Desc&ViewTemplate=search3%2Ehts

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

The death and devastation caused by major earthquakes around the world can only worsen in the years to come, as growing urban development and unprecedented population growth compound the lethal effects of natural seismic hazards, experts said Tuesday.

Big earthquakes strike the Earth with the regularity of an alarm bell- -with about 18 earthquakes measuring 7.0 or greater every year on average, and four or five above the very dangerous 7.6 level. So the recent rash of destructive temblors in Turkey, Greece and now Taiwan does not signify any increase in quake activity.

What has changed, however, is that more and more people are living near faults. With the global population estimated to surpass 6 billion this year, there are fewer unpopulated quake-prone areas. With ever more people to accommodate, there is more multistory construction in vulnerable fault zones as well.

As a result, destructive earthquakes such as those of the past several weeks "are the wave of the future," said Caltech seismic expert Kerry Sieh. "There are 40 cities of a million or more people within 100 kilometers of a major plate boundary, and all those are good candidates for a large event. Our exposure to the hazard is increasing."

Moreover, some experts suggest that in recent decades the world has actually experienced a lull in the most severe earthquakes--those of magnitude 8.0 or greater. If so, even more destructive temblors are to be expected when the lull ends.

Although Taiwan is shaken by dozens of earthquakes every year, the tremor early Tuesday was the worst there since a magnitude 7.4 temblor in 1935, which killed 3,276 people. This week, more than 1,700 people died and 100,000 people were left homeless. At least 2,700 people were still missing.

The predawn quake was caused by the inexorable crush of two major tectonic plates that squeeze the island from the east and west at the relatively rapid rate of several centimeters a year, building up seismic energy like the tension in a coiled spring.

Southern California is caught in a similar tectonic vise that has generated about 300,000 earthquakes of measurable magnitude in the past 20 years, according to Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson.

The disaster in Taiwan was the most recent in a series of damaging urban earthquakes in just over a decade.

Devastating tremors killed at least 16,000 people during a 7.4 earthquake in Turkey in August. At least 143 people died during a 5.9 temblor in Athens several weeks later. More than 6,400 people died in a 1995 quake in Kobe, Japan. The 1994 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles and the 1989 Loma Prieta temblor near San Francisco were among the most costly natural disasters in U.S. history.

Millions of earthquakes occur around the world annually. Most are too small to be felt. An average of 3,000 magnitude 5.0 quakes are recorded each year.

The destruction caused by any single earthquake is unpredictable.

Tuesday's Taiwanese earthquake, at 7.6, was roughly twice as powerful as the 7.4 quake that racked Turkey last month. But the death toll may be only one-tenth as high, in large part because construction codes in Taiwan were more strictly enforced than in Turkey, several experts said.

Other factors can also make a huge difference. Had the epicenter of the Northridge earthquake been located a few miles south, more directly under the downtown area, or had it occurred during the daytime, the death toll might have reached the thousands, rather than the dozens, with damage totaling $100 billion or more, several seismic hazard experts say. In the same vein, government officials in Taiwan on Tuesday said the temblor could have been even more deadly had its timing and location been slightly different.

"We roll the dice every time," said earthquake hazard analyst Charles Kircher in Mountain View, Calif. But as urban boundaries expand to encompass growing populations, those dice are being weighted for disaster. "We get closer to known faults and put more people on top of the faults," Kircher said.

"There has been a fourfold increase in the world's population since the 1906 San Francisco quake, and, if you look at the numbers, most of the million people who have died this century in earthquakes have died in poorly built urban areas."

While better construction can clearly save many lives, some experts worry that quake-specific engineering solutions will foster the belief that it is safe to build in areas with large quake hazards--thereby making the long-term hazard worse.

"We think technology can make us totally safe, independent of the planet we live on," said Dennis Mileti, a sociologist who directs the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center in Boulder and was lead author of a recent government analysis of natural disaster risks. "The problem with that approach is that there is always an event in nature that exceeds what we designed for."

Consequently, "almost everything we do to protect ourselves only ends up postponing losses into the future," Mileti said. "When a larger event in nature comes along, there is more to lose."


Copyright 1999 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

this is a total hoot! now don't get mad at me but i was just doing some observation of the interactions with regards to this post. and honestly i do this too but here we have this wild, horrible statement made by mr. gerges. just slam, bang--put right out there with nothing to back it up. lots of people ask reasonable questions, others frantically respond with reasonable answers, probably others have this statement lodged in the back of their brains now indelibly (whether it is for real or not). mr. gerges is however nowhere to be found--nor did he ever respond to the questions. so much effort expended for a statement that had no facts to back it up. so is this how the masses get manipulated? some one plants an idea--true or not- -then runs while mayhem ensues? mr. gerges, from what facts do you make this prediction??!!!

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

...floss, thimbles, needles, & wet wipes go to His Majesty; Mr. Michaels, I hope that I can entrust to you the heavy {heady?} resposibility of appropriating the contents of the wine cellar; sledge hammer to Greybear; maul to Big Dog; Gaines Burgers to Mr. Decker...

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

Who said "He" ran away? Who said Gerges was "Mr."? Just watching and waiting. More later.

-- Christina G. (seismicstudy@shaker.sci), September 23, 1999.

flora, I'll take whatever plastic grocery bags you've got, if nobody else stands up for them... only have about 2000, running low....

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 23, 1999.


They're yours! I also thought you might be interested in my sturdy yet beautiful antique cherry coffee table, there's enough room for two atop {we cut it down in height from a library table}.

I'm betting on a Libra rising for No Spam, and Flint's gotta be a Gemini.

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

no, I've pegged Flint as a Libra, Hoff as a Virgo, CPR as an Aries and cesspool as a Sagittarius.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 23, 1999.

C. Gerges, you aren't fair. We here are worrying about one catastrophy at a time, which has a definite date, Y2K.

Earthquake dates are quack predictions at this time, nothing foul-proof invented for it yet. It's in Mother Earth's hands, she'll get you when you least expect it.

Heard on CNN last night that SF had a 4, that was interjected by Woodruff while she was reporting on Y2k...go figure.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 23, 1999.

Hey, I already made my earthquake predictions on another thread. Leska might remember where it is? I said the next major earthquake would be in Oregon, followed by Kentucky, then Alaska. My hangman game told me so! :-)

Flora, I am touched! I LOVE Velveeta! Now I gotta run to the store and stock up on some more Rotel tomatoes & green chilies. Chile con queso! YEAH BABY! :-)

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), September 23, 1999.

Chris, Who on earth told you life was supposed to be fair? Plan for it, it is going to happen.

-- C. Gerges (seismicstudy@quake.sci), September 23, 1999.

...vinegars and rope go to Taz; dried porcini mushrooms for Jon; hot pepper sauces to SOB; quilts for Tricia & Brian; Hardliner gets a big pile of books...

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

You got a lot of nerve making cesspool a Sagittarius. I resent that! And Flora if you're making your will because of an earthquake, you're wine bottles will probably be cracked, but that's not the only thing on this thread that is cracked!

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

...the spoon goes to Craig; the pitchfork to A&L; the hoe for Mr. Friendly; leatherman to Stan; trauma pack to the night driver; perfumes for catsy; gold coins to Andy { I hope you don't mind, they're filled with chocolate}...

-- flora (***@__._), September 23, 1999.

Well, golly C. Gerges. Thank you for sharing. Those of us, including moi, who live close to the Loma Prieta fault are hopeful that the pressure is eased. I am most concerned for the East Bay people on the Hayward fault. I told my kids I would throw my body in front of their car if they bought a house over there.

Of course if California broke off, we would take a good chunk of the U.S. GDP along with us. I would still rather live here and I have lived and done business travel all over the U.S.

Large earthquakes in other parts of the world always bring implications and concern for the next big one here. But that is also why one should store food, water, alternative heating and lighting, etc....

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999.


As a native Missourian, I can assure you that earthquakes do occur in the Show Me State--lots of them, but mostly small.

An interesting note: Several years ago some "experts" were predicting the Big One to hit on a particular date (I forget exactly when). St. Louis emergency preparedness personel, together with city and county planners, tried to put together an evacuation and rescue plan just in case. They were largely unsuccessful because of the number of non-earthquake hardened bridges in St. Louis and surrounding counties. We tried to map out a route from my parents house to anywhere but couldn't because EVERY road leading to their neighborhood had at least one bridge. Southeast Missouri has a similar problem because of all the streams that run through that part of the state. If you canoe under some of those bridges down there you can get a very clear understanding of the risk. Assuming the bridge doesn't fall on top of you while you're looking, of course.

-- Sam Mcgee (weissacre@gwtc.net), September 23, 1999.

Hey, all you Californicators, don't get uptight about all the easterners' concern for your health. I used to live there; we had three earthquakes around 5.3 to 5.5 in one night. My mother in law had come out to spray lysol all over the place, as my son had just been born two or three days before. After the quakes, she packed up and headed back to Northeast Texas, saying, "I don't see how y'all can live out here!". I wish I'd known then what I learned a few years later, namely that she had fled back toward the eye of the storm, earthquake-wise. Notice that three of the top ten quakes in the 48 contig's were in New Madrid. All within a three months period, if memory serves. Felt as far away as Misoula, Mont. Rang church bells in Boston, Mass!

We're in Oregon now, and have only felt one earthquake in twenty four years. I kinda miss feeling them once or twice a week (in Eureka, Calif). I keep thinking that if we don't have 'em here, maybe they're just building up steam.


-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 23, 1999.

Flora, Your too kind. Thanks for the hoe! LOL :) P.S. Ya gotta love a girl with a sense of humor!

-- Mr. Friendly (savinmynickelsndimes@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

I don't know where C.Gerges gets his information, but he is not the only one saying this. Just for a comparison the truly curious might want to check out this link which will take you to "Gayle's Story." It's a bit lengthy, but eventually you will get to the California/Utah Earthquake part with possibly the same time frame (Oct/Nov). This prediction has been out on the web for several years, and its author has apparently spoken several times on Utah radio broadcasts. Other than that I know nothing about her. You'll note several interesting additions like a stock market collapse that will happen first, foreign invasion, etc. Not for the faint of heart; and the world-view is definitely religious. http://www.eagle-net.org/enoch144/GaylesStory-ver2-0.htm

-- Claire (earthquakesyousay@aol.com), September 24, 1999.


If this is true,will the people be given official warning of some type?If you think they will,how do you see it being done?I have alot of friends and family living in California.


I know of the man that said there could be a large EQ on the New Madrid fault,in California or Japan.He later dropped New Madrid from his forcast and focused more attention on the other two.Japan was the one that had the EQ.

When I moved back to Missouri,I had EQ insurance put on my house.I feel safer where I live now then in California,with all things concidered.I was born and raised in the bay area(Ca.)and also lived in southern Ca.I know what you mean about all the lakes around here.I have done my best to be prepared for y2k and what ever may come,I hope you and your family have also.

-- maggie (aaa@aaa.com), September 24, 1999.

Lunatics like this moron are the reason I can't take anything in this forum seriously anymore.

-- Mike Childs (MChilds@hotbot.com), September 24, 1999.

Flora, thanks for the pitchfork! ;^) We're gonna tie a ribbon to a point of ours in commendoration to your thoughtful remembrance.

Here in Cascadia, there was a significant earthquake in 1993, and then 2 guys in Colorado correctly were found to have predicted and publicized it. They predicted another one shortly thereafter, and the Fire Depts moved their trucks out to safeguard them. That prediction did not materialize, so the 2 guys were thereafter ignored, but to this day if one wants to know about insider predictions, one has only to observe one's local fire station.

We're CERT & NET certified & ready ...

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 24, 1999.

I predict that it will rain somewhere in the US today. Get out your rain coat.

C'mon A&L, that's akin to read tea leaves or tarot cards to get your info.

flora, what did I do to deserve your perfume? Channel #5 I hope? ;-)

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 24, 1999.

Yep, Chris, it's not exactly scientific, but it works. We FEMA folks gotta know how to read the local signs. Helps to be in real real good with the firemen, who no longer take earthquakes lightly. Know how much dem firetrucks cost? And unfortunately many of the older nice brick firehouses weren't built up to 8-9+ ...

EC, you still out there lurking?

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 24, 1999.

I'm planning to turn my home into a bed and breakfast because I will have beachfront property after the quake hits. Spectacular sunsets, views of the coastal range, come relax and enjoy. The only drawback will be the menu, but I am sure you all like SPAM and Dinty Moore stew. (hee, hee)

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 24, 1999.

Bardou, are you volunteering to have the Crow Party at your place if Unc continues to hem 'n haw? ;^)

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 24, 1999.

Leska--Sure, come on up, I'll even have a few bottles of wine to go with our SPAM and stew! But you all will have to get here by boat or sea plane.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 24, 1999.

A & L,

I'm suprised that nobody called me out on the fact that y'all are in range for this doozy. See, I had this intense dream once where I was taken down to meet King Neptune. I figured if it was prophesey, Ashton could use the thing as a cool trident.


I shoulda know you were a fellow #5-er. { You know the Monroe quote when they asked her what she slept in {#5}}. It must be our blood. The french was on dad's side, mom was partial to #22 - a little too floral for flora!

...now let's see...SPAM & Dinty Moore for bardou {do you want the boogie boards & surfboard too, or should they go to Deano?}; tampons for Maria { I'm sure she hasn't stashed enough}}; Hershey's kisses for Hoff; Corned Beef Hash to Cory; razors to Polly Esther...

-- flora (***@__._), September 24, 1999.

Flora, you must have some kind of ESP! Actually I salute the Holder of the Trident, and strive to be worthy of his attention: Aum Namo Shivaya, King of Yogis, Destroyer of evil and ego. Yes, we play stirring valiant Shiva chant recordings for long hours, tridents most welcome!

-- Ashton (allaha@earthlink.net), September 24, 1999.


Id accept any wine bottles... filled... not cracked. (Hint, hint!)

C. Gerges (seismicstudy@quake.sci),

Are you just playing here or do you have something to base your predictions on?

Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now),

Yeah, as a native Californian, I USED to like earthquakes. Until I went through the Northridge 94 quake 7 miles from the epicenter. Being whip-lashed, so you cant even stand up, on the third floor of a cracking building is NO fun! Although it did turn out to be quite an adventure.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 24, 1999.

yep, flora, you nabbed it: Leska's symbol is the Trident: she's of the Neptunian persuasion.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 24, 1999.

No, ASHTON is the more accomplished Yogi. Why do ppl leave him out? You wouldn't if you met him!

-- 2, Two, 2 Cascadians (allaha@earthlink.net), September 24, 1999.

This lovely stirring chant is from a Jai Uttal tape, "Beggars and Saints:"

Chant: Menoka, a Bengali Village Folk Song.

"Beautiful Menoka is wearing the wedding veil.
Flying in the face of convention she has chosen to marry the eternally naked one.
No one knows how old he is, his beginning or his end,
but with his matted hair, sackcloth and ashes, he looks like an ordinary beggar.
This man, her husband-to-be, lives and sleeps in the charnal grounds, where bodies are burned!
Nicknamed "The King of Ghosts," what kind of match is he for our lovely young Menoka?
Ah, but she alone knows the truth:
Whomever adores the holder of the trident overcomes death!
Menoka matai delo gomita. Menoka dons the wedding veil."

Recommend yogis striving to attune their sadhana to Shiva's blessings listen to this chant!

Inspiring, heart-soaring, melodic, mystical, beautiful. 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 24, 1999.

...that reminds me - the lipsticks and chapsticks should go to corrine 1 ...boy, at the rate I'm going, I'll have much more room for preps!...

A colorful smooch to y'all who have made it down this far!

-- flora (***@__._), September 24, 1999.

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