WHAT I EXPECT TO HAPPEN

Just my GUESS, not a prediction, not a prophesy.

I'm making this guess concerning the one and only thing I am an expert on. A better expert than anyone else in the world. My Life. Just remember it's a guess, only a guess, nothing but a guess. Do not attempt this at home, unless you want to and would like to share as I am.

This is what I EXPECT to happen. In my mind, odds about 75%. I'll write more on the other 25% and our plans.

We have a home mostly owned by a bank. I run a small business. Wife works in County Govt. services and part time at Radio Shack. Three boys in school, two separate buildings. Our finances are Tiiiight, we are typical consumers. SPEND earn SPEND earn SPEND SPEND.

ROLLOVER.... snore. I fully expect to sleep through it just as I always do on New Years Eve. (Snort... Wha? It's 2000?.. Great yipee hurray....snore snore snore.)

NEW YEARS DAY 2000.... Probably we'll have family over, or better yet we go there for a meal. That way we can leave when they start throwing insults and food. I'll spend the rest of the day watching the tube and listening to shortwave. IF the net is up I'll be watching the world via Internet too. Why should it be down? Congestion. That's one day when every single person with a phone will either be trying to make calls or surf the net. (Hi! Grandma? It's Billy. BILLY! Your grandson! Yes you DO have a grandson. I'M your grandson. BILLY! Yea, that one. I just wanted to say Happy New Year! What do you mean what year is this?)

I recognize there is some small chance that my electricity will be off. If that's the case the inlaws can bite me, we aint going to their house. I'll let the wood stove die down a bit and fire up the cookstove for a New Years feast. Wouldn't do to let the food in the fridge go bad. If the power does go off, and stays off for whatever reason, then we are into plan B with all it entails, but that's not what I EXPECT to happen so I won't go into it in this post.

DAY AFTER (NEW YEARS).... Back to work. Just like everyone else around here. From that first day back to work for maybe the next year I expect irritating annoying pain in the backside glitches from our bank and credit card company. I have them now, why shouldn't I have them then, and more as well? Lots of people will pay in cash the next month or two after New Years. They took it out of the bank. Other side of the coin, the bank will ask us to make multiple deposits thruout the day and rush cash BACK INTO the bank.

I also expect to start having parts and supply headaches starting just about the day after and stretching for an indeterminate time. This is only a problem to me personally if I can't finish the work and don't get paid. I fully expect to have cars stacking up around here waiting on parts. It happens sometimes now, I expect it will get worse. I also expect many more parts will become 'special order' and I will require deposits before ordering them. People are NOT going to like this, but I cannot let our business get stuck with tons of parts customers refused because it took weeks/months to get them.

There will be some people that simply won't get their cars fixed. I will work around what I can. We'll have a new form for customers to sign releasing us from responsibility when we do what must be done to get them moving down the road. Won't be worth much but we'll do it anyway.

MONTH to a YEAR after THE DAY......

I may be job hunting. Our business is just eking by now for many reasons. Throw in parts headaches, a down turned economy, banking errors, intermittent services, etc. , and we might go belly up. This will have me job hunting. My skills are way up there but if other shops have the same problems we'll suffer. Luckily (???) there is a HUGE shortage right now for people with my skills and that should carry over somewhat. Worst comes to worse I will work out of home. I can do that. It'll be ugly but I can make a living.

Wifey may be job hunting. She works County Govt. It's a position mandated by law, they are REQUIRED to have these people but if there's reduced tax income then somebody will have to go. It sure won't be the admin people. It will be the ones who actually work with citizens, like my wife. When it comes right down to it the local govt would love it if people just paid taxes and then went away. They don't really care if services are there or not as long as they can play with money and look important in the mirror. Not sure if wifey's skills work in a depression world. They'll be in demand but maybe money won't be there to pay for them.

UTILITIES..... We are dependent only on electricity. Should it become undependable that first year for any reason, well, we're all set. We simply don't NEED them. I expect occasional blackouts and brownouts. Stuff happens. I expect we'll become accustomed to leaving sensitive stuff unplugged unless we are using it right at that moment. This will effect all business's in our area and will contribute to the general downturn in our economy. I expect there will be water and sewer problems, as well as gas. These won't effect MY family directly but they'll be scary to read about and maybe friends will be over using our shower.

All this said, I fully expect to be without electricity much of the time next year. Why? Money. I think the price of electricity is going to rise to the point we as a family will have to chose to do without. Wifey and I have discussed this already. If it becomes a budget buster then the breaker gets thrown. An hour in the morning, an hour in the evening, the rest of time we go Amish sort of. Kiss the big side by side fridge good-bye and the chest freezer becomes the fridge. Run a few hours a day it will keep food cooled just fine thank you. If it comes down to pay the light bill or pay the mortgage, we'll fire up the kero lanterns and the coal cookstove.

Why do I think juice will cost so much? Fuel supply lines. Everyone here can add up the numbers.

FOOD......... Ah.... Food... one of my favorite things. I like to eat as I pointed out to the doctor last night during my physical. He and his broken scale agreed. SPROING! We have food. We won't starve. In fact we'll eat pretty well. How about everyone else? I 'expect' there to be shortages through at least the spring if not fully into summer as well. Some things will become hard to find or impossible to find. Coffee and Chocolate are going to get expensive. In fact most food is going to get more expensive. I think the locals around here will eat pretty well but you can kiss the pickled artichoke hearts and Pate Foi Gras goodbye. The grocery stores will have (GUESSING) maybe 60% of their normal variety. Some things there will be lots of, like potatoes and onions and chicken and beef. Some things will go short like processed meats and boxed crackers, M+M's and frozen OJ.

Us? We'll be able to, if we wish, stay away from the stores when things get iffy. We won't be part of the tuna wars and the hershey bar riot. (we might sneak in during the coffee uprising though). Stocking now will let us ride out the worst of whatever happens food wise. In fact, we could ignore the stores for 5 months or more if we have to and still eat Ok. Make that 12 months plus if you are talking non-starvation rations. I expect we'll chose to help some family and friends who have suffered from year long brain farts. They won't like the diet but they'll eat if things get bad for a time.

If things go bad for us financially, as I expect them to, then the food stocks will be money in the can. Every meal we eat from the closet is one that doesn't come out of the budget. Been there, done that. Been out of work in the past where having a months worth of food saved us from borrowing till paychecks started coming in again.

DEFENSE / UNREST.......

Yup, I think there will be some headaches. Around our home we'll have security measures 'heightened' somewhat. The same at work for me, but wifey is at counties mercy. Their idea of security is to turn on an extra light at night. Sokay, wifey shoots fast and low but I'd rather she didn't have to. If it gets THAT weird she'll be home with the kids. I expect to be reading/viewing lots of news about welfare riots and such. In our area? Probably not, but slightly possible. We stay away from that part of town now as it is. Should it spread.... should it spread anywhere near our home..... it won't be pretty. Simply put, our home will not be invaded or looted, period. Tell the coroner to bring the big truck.

To sum up, I think we will be facing a depression plus. The 'plus' being results from our changed society. During the depression lots of folks still left doors unlocked and even the bums had a code of conduct. Today your door can be smashed in and you don't know if it's thieves or authorities, they all dress and act alike. I expect we'll be staying much closer to home. The garden will become critical instead of relaxing. The mortgage will be all consuming and everything else will fall by the wayside as we pile up that monthly payment.

Wifey and I will work longer hours, but probably closer to home. Gas will cost too much and the second vehicle will have to go. $100 earned in the driveway tax free is likely to beat $200 earned in town and taxed. I think I'll see a lot more barter.

How long? A year, year and a half of hard times. Five years of recovery. Not that I expect glitches past the first year, but recovering from them...... I expect the single greatest impact will be economic. Companies are going to fail-falter and people will lose their jobs. This will cascade, but I expect will stop at depression level hardships.

Limiting factors that can blow this wide open: Food, water, social unrest. Knock over any of these cups and we go straight to 9-10.

I am talking the highest odds guess we are working from at the moment. Like I said, 75% chance in our eyes. I don't see it being better than this no matter how you cut it, but this comes from OUR perspective. The other 25% gets worse right up to Infomagic which gets 1% or less (And that's WAY higher than I like!)

I'll write more about that other 25%, but first I'd like to hear what other people are 'expecting' their lives to be like next year.

-- Art Welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), September 21, 1999

Answers

Art:

Not too far off from my feelings. I run a bit more pessimistic. Maybe a bit more food on hand (all *really* boring).

I'm expecting more electrical trouble earlier than you are. Just from "listening to the rumbles". I'd rather be wrong.

I would call your scenario about an 8.0. Based on that, I think I would shift the chances of an 8.0 or less to about 50% to 60%, with the chances of something worse being in the 40% to 50% range.

But, given the amount of uncertainty still extant, you and I are on the same page.

I certainly don't expect to be doing next year what I do today.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 21, 1999.

Good post Art. A global depression is the *best* we can hope for. Like I've been sayin since last year ... Bank runs / Market CRASH by 12/99 at the latest, major oil problems by 1/00.

my moneys out !

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.

Thanks, Art. This description has the feel of my own "highest probability" scenario. Like you, I think the odds of getting an outcome better than this or worse than this are smaller than the odds of getting this kind of outcome. It is what I expect, too.

However, whenever I can think of anything that might help my family survive something worse than this, without it being too costly, I do it. No sense in not doing it. I figure you are doing the same. Good luck.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), September 21, 1999.

My wife and I have spent the last year getting ready for this. I have changed occupations and am now a full time homestead farmer. We live in a rural area with very few homestead type farms, most all farms are grain, a few beef around, but not many. We do not have our place paid off, but my parents do have the family farm free and clear, only 8 miles away so we feel protected with a back up plan if it should be a 7 or worst. As we found out with Floyd, we are dependent on elect because of the sump pump in the basement. Have generator, but do not want to store six months of gas. Have lots of grain and other food stored, and grain is available from local farms. We figure if Food Lion closes, (12 miles away) we will be the place to come to in the area. We have one cow, 70 laying hens, and some small pigs. We also have a grain grinder. My wife has a good job with a hospital 45 miles away, has lots of friends close by the hospital which we could trade food for lodging for her if gas becomes a problem. Her job does not rely on Medicare reimbursement, but does rely on disposable spending by patients. Her hospital has enough reserve capital to equal 3 years of cash flow, so it will be one of the last to close. Finances: we have a good equity but do have mortgages and with out selling some property, (which is on market) we can not pay off mortgage. We would most likely have a house full of friends and family if TSHTF. My parents or her, would have first priory on sleeping arrangements, the friends may have to camp out in the basement or barn.

-- chicken farmer (chicken-farmer@ y2k.farm), September 21, 1999.

Late last night, Meg asked me what I am going to do next year if Y2K is a non event or just a bump in the road. How am I going to judge all that effort, time, and money I spent on the forum, off line, and also preparing? I haven't given it too much thought before, so this is as good a place to sort out my thoughts and, maybe, Meg will get a decent answer tonight. Or she can log in and get it here. (grin)

I can easily imagine that we will be tuned into the internet and cable television from the morning of December 31, doing last minute things. We'll be watching the countdown in Australia and as it continues west through Asia and Europe, chatting online, sipping cups of Fish House Punch (a potent concoction whose recipe comes to us from Meg's sea captain ancestor), and preparing a New Year's feast.

Assuming that the stock market hadn't corrected below 9,000... that there weren't bank runs and no state of emergency was declared ... that Dick Clark's New Year's gig kept on going into the morning without a hitch... that the first two weeks of the New Year went well except for the most minor of inconveniences, I would assume that the greatest risks to our life and happiness were now past.

If foreign nations weathered Y2K well, I'd take this all as fantastic news and focus intensely on leading our small company to increase profits and market share. The Year 2000 would be a year of significant opportunities and I would be confident that shareholders will be well rewarded for their previous investments. I would considering bringing on new employees as we came to support more clients as their first line of document production.

The food stored would be divided for our use and for donation to local food banks (May) assuming that Y2K turned out to be the great fizzle. Most of the gear is practical enough to keep for camping or common emergencies and I suppose that I would be picking up some great yard sale deals on other gear. We'd have a lot of romantic fires through the winter. As dog shows come up, I'd hope to meet more of my new friends up and down the East Coast.

The money saved from the stored food that we use... should be still be significant. A month's vacation and art-collecting in India would be planned for the late fall, spring trips to Europe and the Middle East might be on the horizon. More immediately, a new a/c and furnace would replace the old, and the inside of the house might get some fresh paint. Of course, we'll have some intensive gardening going on. We have plenty of seeds for the next few years.

In some ways, my life will be forever changed. I can't imagine being without one month's supply of stored food and at least 14 days of water. I will work hard to get less dependent on public utilities. Getting 50% solar powered would be a 5 year goal. A well would be dug in the next 2 years. There will always be bug out bags in the closet. In general, I'll want to spend less money, save more, and chip away at personal debt. In general, I'll live frugally compared to my peers.

Of course, there will be other wind mills to battle. But I think a year of rest would do me some good. I have a few books to write and also a science fiction idea that I'd like to get working on. There will be time for all of this and also for the intellectual life that gives me so much pleasure. Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Aquinas, Kant, and Wojtyla patiently wait my return on the dusty book shelves.

That doesn't mean that I wouldn't have a big sheepish grin whenever someone mentions how silly they thought I had acted in regard to Y2K. While I'd be grealty gladdened that it turned out to nothing, I think I will also be satisfied by the course that I took in light of the serious risks that Y2K posed. Prudence does not require that an action was the best action in view of what came to pass; it only requires that an action was the best action given the circumstances and at that time.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 21, 1999.

Very nice post(s). Thoughtful. I agree Art. This is what I call my "Russian Economy" model (which, by the way, I used on a friend over lunch about an hour ago).

-- Dave (aa@aaa.com), September 21, 1999.

Art, you are an expert, and a perfect example of yourself. Hehe......Tim

-- Tim Johnson (timca@webtv.net), September 21, 1999.

Thanks Art & Stan for great posts. If y2k turns out to be a non-event, I will take the ribbing from my DGI friends graciously and remind them gently that I am out of debt, I learned how to can and bake bread. I won't have to go to the store for a looooooooooooooog time and I will smile alot using the money I save for retirement. As I write these words I know it's just a pipe dream, but if you are someone who prepares for anything, you have to be prepared for the possibility of it being okay, too. :)

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), September 21, 1999.