Here's the link:

Tom's Take

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 19, 1999

Answers

Re: the "Pollyanna Progression", it is noteworthy that the latest Cap Gemini - Rubin Systems survey showed that 48% of the companies will not finish their critical systems remediation.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), September 19, 1999.

Well, Tom was wrong about the stock market crash and the media focusing on the problem. This is September 1999 and neither thing has happened or is likely to happen anytime soon.

-- Doubtful (doubtful@skeptic.com), September 19, 1999.

Me - sitting in front of computer with jaw sagged open. No noise save the thumping comng from my chest and the hum of the purring of the hard drive.

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), September 19, 1999.

Doubtful, you NITWIT, any comment on Paul's Pollyanna Progression?? You folks love to dig up things that have not taken place to date but you NEVER comment on things that have come to pass.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 19, 1999.

April, aptly put !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 19, 1999.

Well, Tom was wrong about the stock market crash and the media focusing on the problem. This is September 1999 and neither thing has happened or is likely to happen anytime soon.

-- Doubtful (doubtful@skeptic.com), September 19, 1999.

Ya know it's funny. A bunch of assholes laughed at me 6 months ago when I said crude oil would hit 25 bucks again by November. Pretty funny huh? It is my sincere hope that YOU are 100% fully invested. Stay there, we need your assets for liquidity.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), September 19, 1999.

Gordon, aptly put!!

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 19, 1999.

April, Ray, Gordon & Andy, aptly put!

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 19, 1999.

"Well, Tom was wrong about the stock market crash and the media focusing on the problem. This is September 1999 and neither thing has happened or is likely to happen anytime soon."

Doubtful, he wasn't "wrong", merely that one of his speculations (and optimistic wishing?)didn't come to pass, i.e., media awareness blitz leading to crash.

If you read down further, you'll see that he allows for his "best case scenario", that is 30% chance of a depression, starting 2000/01/01:

"Those who are still with me will recall that I am using the Adjusted Yardeni scale. We have a 70% chance that it all collapses, and a 30% chance of a severe depression. As his number goes up, mine will too. It is just a number and doesnt really mean anything, but if there is a 30% chance that we will escape with depression, we need a set of circumstance that results in damages held to that.

Here is my most reasonable one:
First, there have to be enough denial-heads and Davy Crocketts, and Fatalists to delay the crash until 2000/01/01. Davy Crockett will be making this point ever more forcefully in the days and months to come. The only chance we have to avoid total TEOWAWKI is if the programmers get an opportunity to avoid it. Time is their greatest enemy, and pessimism about the outcome may steal time from them."

That scenario so far is right on the money, the Davy Crocketts are very forceful and even desperate. Take Alan Greenspan's recent spin as an example. The media has taken up Y2K, but not as Tom hoped, instead they've taken the position of denialheads and blitzed us with happyface spin.

Everything else, his Pollyanna Progression etc., was on the money also. So now we're at that "best case scenario". Read the rest. As he predicted, we're now left to wait and see what will happen on 2000/01/01. Nothing else we can do in the mean time but buy more beans.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 19, 1999.

Must be a duct-taped one.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 19, 1999.

As I recall, there was a "Toms Take 2" or something like that -- more of a rant on the part of Tom regarding the entire situation of Y2K catching everyone by surprise, the PR flaks and lawyers not allowing any thing of substance to come out, etc. Anyone have the link for that?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 19, 1999.

King of Spain,

No link, but if one emails Tom directly he will tell you he's a bit more optimistic these days.

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), September 20, 1999.

Tom Benjamin is a regular poster on CSY2K. Do a Deja search and you'll find him still posting right up to today. He also recently contributed to a number of threads on EUY2K. Do a search on that forum for all the threads he was involved in. I don't think Tom would describe himself as 'more optimistic', since he wrote Tom's Take - I can't imagine him being so simplistic in his response, even if does think the 'Tom's Take' piece was a product of its time and a particular discussion (about TEOTWAWKI and Paul Milne, I believe) . IMO Tom Benjamin is one of the most original and forceful thinkers and writers on Y2K. If you want a bang-on analysis of current Y2K events from a 'pessimist' perspective, then you'd be hard pressed to find a better guide than Tom. I say this without necessarily agreeing with all his conclusions.

-- Chris Byrne (cbyrne98@hotmail.com), September 20, 1999.

Tom Benjamin is a regular poster on CSY2K. Do a Deja search and you'll find him still posting right up to today. He also recently contributed to a number of threads on EUY2K. Do a search on that forum for all the threads he was involved in. I don't think Tom would describe himself as 'more optimistic', since he wrote Tom's Take - I can't imagine him being so simplistic in his response, even if does think the 'Tom's Take' piece was a product of its time and a particular discussion (about TEOTWAWKI and Paul Milne, I believe) . IMO Tom Benjamin is one of the most original and forceful thinkers and writers on Y2K. If you want a bang-on analysis of current Y2K events from a 'pessimist' perspective, then you'd be hard pressed to find a more astute observer than Tom. I say this without necessarily agreeing with all his conclusions.

-- Chris Byrne (cbyrne98@hotmail.com), September 20, 1999.