Link at

http://www.dowguru.com/99crsh.htm

Got USPIX?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 18, 1999

Answers

1 MEAN-HALLOWEEN--COMING -UP.--something evil in the wind.

-- OCTOBER-FESTER. (dogs@zianet.com), September 18, 1999.

The crash in 87 happened because Wall Street had just gotten into computerized trading. Program trading made the market more volatile than the underlying economics.

By now, the brokerage houses have more experience, more computers, and have worked out those kinks, and the SEC stands ready to call trading halts when needed.

This is not to say that the current level of the market has any rationality behind it. But if it crashed, it will be for reasons other than what happened in 87.

-- kermit (colourmegreen@hotmail.com), September 18, 1999.

What happened to his Sept 13th '99 crash prediction???? Anybody who draws a 12 year old trendline, cites specific dates for a market crash, and calls himself 'Dowguru' should be found at DowBozo.com

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), September 18, 1999.

I tend to agree. Charting is a mystery to me, I don't see how past performance can correspond to todays scenario. However you have to agree that there are a lot of similarities here...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 18, 1999.

Andy, here is a two year chart of the NYSE Composite of stocks:

2 Year NYSE Composite and the Associated Advance/Decline Line

It also shows the Advance/Decline line for this period.

In a healthy stock market this A/D line should be running somewhat parallel to the NYSE Composite line. As you can see, the A/D line started to decline last year as the NYSE Composite kept rising.

Simply put this means the majority of stocks in this composite have been declining since last year. A VERY bad sign.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 18, 1999.

Downstreamer, Dowguru did not predict a crash on September 13, 1999. They predicted the Dow would make it's last all time high on that date. They were incorrect!!. The August 25, 1999 Dow high may stand.

The stock market at precarious heights. A resolution is at hand.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 18, 1999.

Andy,

I've been doing some independent research on market crashes and have observed either a fascinating symmetry or one hell of a series of coincidences.

There have been 2 major crashes this century: 1929 and 1987. You will observe astonishing similarities between the 2 if you lay them both on a chart and compare.

The AD line peaked in May, 1928 and the DJI peaked on 9/3/29. The elapsed time between the AD peak and the DJI top was 69 weeks. Regarding the 1987 market, the AD peaked in April, 1986 and the NYSE hit its high at the end of August, 1987. The elapsed time between the AD high and the NYSE top was 70 calendar weeks.

The Jewish high holy day is Yom Kippur, which always falls 4-5 days before a full moon ( the jewish calendar is a lunar calendar). The relevant Yom Kippur dates were 10/14/29 and 10/3/87. In both cases the market meltdowns began immediately after Yom Kippur and the 2 markets and crashed heavily into the full moon.

Let's look at the current market. The AD topped on 4/3/98 and the NYSE peak, so far, was 7/16/99. The elapsed time between these 2 dates is 68 calendar weeks.

Yom Kippur occured 76 weeks after the AD high in the 1929 market and 77 weeks after the AD peak in the 1987 market. Again, the crashes began immediately after Yom Kippur in each case. This year, Yom Kippur begins in the 78th week after the 1998 AD high.

Yom Kippur begins tomorrow at sundown. The full moon is a week from today. We are at the precise point in the lunar calendar where the 1929 and 1987 crashes commenced.

Interesting coincidences for believers in market cycles or just a series of coincidences? Based solely on this analysis, you might conclude that the market must crash now or it won't crash at all. If the latter, we may be in for a long, slow bear market like 1973-74. Historically, most bear markets are of the slow and painful variety and are not short crash events.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), September 18, 1999.

Typo errors in the last paragraph of my post. It should read:

"Interersting symmetries for believers in market cycles or just a series of unrelated coincidences? Based solely on this analysis, you might conclude that the market must crash now or it won't crash at all. If the latter, we may be in for a long, slow bear market like 1973-74. Historically, most bear markets are of the slow and painful variety and are not short crash events such as 1987 and 1998".

Sorry.

-- mike (Maples@voy.net), September 18, 1999.

If I could accurately predict the market I would have better things, and more money, to do than post nonsense in a Y2K forum.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 18, 1999.

Uncle Bob,

Have you been posting nonsense on this Y2k forum? Shame on you!

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), September 18, 1999.

Thanks Mike - fascinating...

BTW has anyone been reading ANOTHER and FOA on USA Gold? Any thoughts on the merits of physical gold now re. mining stocks in the next year or so?

Uncle - have you been posting crap again :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 18, 1999.

Looks like the old scheme I read about in my get-rich-quick scheming days.

• Send out X free mailings with 50% predicting A and 50% predicting B
• Wait to see which happens (lets say A). Send out X free mailings to people on the A list, again with a 50/50 split "predicting" something.
• Again, send out another mailing to the people you have correctly predicted twice for. This time, tell them you have something big, and charge big $$$ for your prediction.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), September 18, 1999.

Anony99,

If you are suggesting MY post is a scheme, that's idiotic. I'm not selling anything-just responding to Andy's interesting post.

Also, if you were referring to my post, what "prediction" did I make? It should be fairly clear to even the most casual reader that I was laying out some historical parallels. The only conclusion I offered was that a meltdown had to occur fairly soon or it wasn't in the cards in the near future.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), September 18, 1999.

Andy:

Earlier this week I had looked at the latest updates, and what I thought interesting is that the author admitted he had made his most important chart in late July.

He was only off by less than two weeks if 25AUG99 was the top.

However, a GI I know says this dowguru is all wet because he had predicted a market crash in '89 which didn't happen.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 18, 1999.

Andy:

What is your opinion of the chart at www.mrci.com/special/DSPI87.htm ?

This chart is being updated after every stock closing, and if it's in anyway accurate, a sudden plunge will commence next week and then drastically fall in October.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 18, 1999.

Very interesting, but was the plunge protection team around in '87?

Not only do we have the PPR, we also have to take into consideration the might of the collective governmental position in the markets ala CAFR.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), September 18, 1999.

OR,

You are right, also this time around any "crash" will be spread out over days/weeks as the markets will be shutdown once certain selling parameters are exceeded in a given time (not sure what this is though - 1,000 points? guessing)...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 18, 1999.

Thanks for the link randolph - again the similarities are quite bizarre... hoping for a little more room to make some "adjustments" before TSHTF :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 18, 1999.

So, in a "Market Shutdown" scenario....What happens to Open Put Options that you can't close out...SOL??

-- Larry (Rampon@cyberramp.net), September 18, 1999.