Not Enough Time?

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going back to DeJaegers and others early predictions, the whole house of cards, cascading failures, series of scenarios, was predicated on the fact that there just wasn't enough time to fix everything. could the original guestimates as to how long things would take to fix been incorrect to the point that we are no longer in the severe danger zone. hold the nasty slinging of arrows folks, because i'm personally heavily prepped, armed and cranky.

Smoochingly yours,

co

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), September 17, 1999

Answers

Troll alert!

-- Ranger (OneRanger@OneRiot.net), September 17, 1999.

The danger zone for y2k could very well be passed. But the danger zone of living in these times has not. Earthquakes everywhere, hurricanes, fires, floods, terriorist, war, country being run by liars, corruption, greed, lack of natural affection, cloning, dumbing down, violence in youth, stupidity, loss of family unity, uncaring society, is enough for me to stay alert and keep preparing, y2k or not.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), September 17, 1999.

Original guestimates were conservative to fix "everything".

Most everything has NOT been fixed.

Best organizations are still finding unexpected problems.

Politicians have fixated on people reaction being the problem and are spinning like mad.

Spin is having the unintended consequence of making people think there is no problem, thus not addressing it.

Big organizations (Federal Governments, Banks, Fortune 500) are doing contingency plans, sometimes instead of fixing systems.

"Fix on Failure" strategy, embedded in contingency plans is not going to work for organizations who have not made a food faith effort to fix things in advance of the rollover.

How many people will die because of "spin"?

-- ng (cantprrovideemail@none.com), September 17, 1999.


corrine has been handing out smooches for months,she's hardly a troll.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), September 17, 1999.

Bad computer code does not care.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), September 17, 1999.


if the 'spin' keeps going, all we need is a couple of thousand feet of copper wire, some large magnets, and we can create the "Koskin-Gen", the first self powered generator that runs at 100000 R.P.M. which the only byproduct is a significant amount of bullshit.

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 17, 1999.

THis suggests a new Y2K scale; the "Y2KAMP(erage) Scale" to indicate the level and intensity of the SPIN one sees. Runs from a couple milliKAMPS to a couple kiloKAMPS.

CHuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 17, 1999.


JBD? corrine l = troll

-- (trollsquad@alert.troops), September 17, 1999.

Peter De Jaeger made a comment last year that if Bill Clinton and Al Gore had not made Y2K a national priority by November 1998 then we have just lost all hope,we are finished. I agreed with that statement then and I still do now.As for De Jaeger, the man took a lot of crap and ridicule for years regarding this subject,and it doesn't bother me what he is saying nowadays,he has to eat like everyone else,and what difference does it make? Actually, I still admire De Jaeger,he is still trying to save companies even though time ran out a good while ago.

-- Stanley Lucas (StanleyLucas@WebTv.net), September 17, 1999.

Robert Louis Stevenson: "Sooner or later in life, we all sit down to a banquet of consequences."

Not a popular notion. One can only hope that Lord Greenspan and the power brokers have their own share of "quiet (and not so quiet) desperation" as they approach the banquet table. Seems fair to me. I'm easy to please.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), September 17, 1999.



The early guesstimates included guesses on top of guesses. There were lots of unknowns, and few knowns. Among the few knowns were that large IT projects usually miss schedules, many companies and other organizations had not begun to take potential Y2K problems seriously, and that if not "enough" work was done in time, we would have various serious problems.

Of those knowns, the only one that seems to have changed substantially is than many organizations have done a lot more work than it then appeared they would do. We still do not know if it will have been "enough" to avoid almost all serious problems (I doubt it), even though we can say the obvious: that we will have fewer serious problems than we would have if less work were done.

YMMV,

Jerry

-- Jerry b (skeptic76@erols.com), September 17, 1999.


Yeah Corrine, I often wonder exactly that.

It's possible that a lot of the news we hear about things being OK is correct and not much will happen. I've even been daydreaming a lot lately about all the great stuff I'm going to do next year if it turns out to be a bump in the road. I eagerly await an "All Clear" signal in January so I can get on with my life.

I think all this Y2K preparation and worry is a pain in the ass.

But then I read something like the Sept. 14th report in which the HCFA finally admitted that Medicaid is in danger of failing in over half of the states (high risk in nine states, medium risk in two dozen others). http://www.y2kcenter.or g/news/bf09.html

Oh, and by the way, they tell us, this information was withheld from the public by the HCFA for months until the reporters filed a Freedom of Information Act request to get it.

Or how about the FAA fiasco? They are still claiming 100% compliance at their web site, despite contradictory reports of MAJOR problems that won't be fixed for years to come, near misses caused by malfunctioning "Y2K compliant" radars, etc.

There are NUMEROUS documented examples of other compliance claims that were later disproven by actual failure, or some other evidence showing that the claim was a TOTAL AND COMPLETE LIE.

With so much at stake, how can I trust anything that I hear from ANY government or business entity when such incredible lies have already been uncovered and PROVEN?

-- Clyde (clydeblalock@hotmail.com), September 17, 1999.


A lot will be fixed before January, but a lot won't be. It isn't December 31, 1998 anymore. Even assuming that there will be electricity in early January, recent info suggests that next year isn't going to be anything like this year.

Fewer than half of America's largest companies (48 percent) expect all of their critical systems to be prepared for the Year 2000, according to a new survey by Cap Gemini America, Inc., an information technology and management consulting leader.

http://www.usa.capgemini.com/news/pr99.asp?id=104

Rep. Stephen Horn's committee recently found that 36 out of 43 of the federal government's high impact programs still aren't ready:

http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/990910HighImpact.PDF

And then there was the GAO's July 1999 report on the Y2K readiness of large American cities:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001MC4

September 30, 1998 had been the target date for federal agencies to have all their mission-critical systems renovated:

http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1005/fcw-newsy2kshort-10-5-98.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 17, 1999.


If someone could give the world Three (3) more years (in other words 3yrs + 3months)would it help??



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), September 17, 1999.


No, 3 more years probably wouldn't help. People would defer fixing the problems, install non-compliant systems, and ignore those who raise warnings...just like 3 years ago!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 17, 1999.


corrine, we definitely ARE in the extreme danger zone. We don't know what will break or how long it will take to fix it, or if it can be fixed. But it's definitely too late to make any meaningful changes now in the outcome.

We have come over the top on the roller coaster, and are gaining speed, and only a few people know it. 99% of the public is on the roller coaster but have been taking a little nap. They will wake when the wind-noise wakes them.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 17, 1999.


corrine, Glad you're prepped! The thing is NO ONE KNOWS. Everyday we spend time thinking--gee, wouldn't it be nice if were all okay now. But no one knows so we have to keep on keeping on. Buy more TP, clorox, and tuna.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), September 17, 1999.

Mara--Tuna without mayonnaise? I'm going to miss mayonnaise.

-- Mayo Please (mayoplease@mayopleaze.com), September 17, 1999.

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