Monday September 6 1:50 AM ET

Computer Experts Say 9/9/99 Problems A Myth

By Neil Winton

LONDON (Reuters) - Stand by for another dud millennium computer bug warning.

Thursday, September 9 may be represented as 9999 on many computer software programs. In theory this string of nines might disrupt systems and provide a preview of the millennium bug chaos predicted when computer clocks click over into the next century at midnight on December 31, 1999.

Many programmers on old computer systems dating mostly from the 1960s used bunches of nines to instruct a computer program to shut down, or prepare for maintenance.

So the theory is that Thursday, computers will come across a series of nines and grind to a halt, throwing a spanner into the works of a huge range of businesses from banking to electricity generation and car manufacturing.

You can relax, for the next 100-odd days at least.

Experts say there is almost no chance that 9/9/99 will have any impact at all.

``The reality is that 9/9/99 is one of the persistent myths of the year 2000 problem. It's not quite a unicorn, not quite 100 percent mythical, we've only been able to identify two instances of 9/9/99 coding in extremely obscure systems,'' said Andy Kyte, analyst with the U.S. information technology research company Gartner Group.

ONE OVERHYPED WARNING?

This looks like becoming another example of a warning of computer chaos that fails to materialize.

So far this year trigger-date warnings which turned out be firing blanks have included April 9, 1999 -- the 99th day of the year. January 1, 1999 was supposed to be a danger because many contracts, insurance policies and loans would reach ahead one year and trigger the millennium bug.

Before the Dow Jones Industrial Average burst through 10,000 earlier this year, some experts said computer programs might be unable to handle the fifth digit in 10,000 correctly.

Either the figure generated very little chaos, or companies and organizations did a great job suppressing bad news.

The popular navigation tool, the satellite-based Global Positioning System, reset its computer clock late last month. Although not strictly a Y2K problem, it was heralded as a threat to light planes and yachts. In the event only a few Japanese taxi drivers using computerized maps apparently had any problems.

SPURIOUS WARNINGS MAY INDUCE COMPLACENCY

But Kyte worries that this string of non-events may induce a fatal degree of complacency ahead of a very real problem at midnight on December 31.

``This is not going to cause a significant number of failures or breakdowns. But it may well reinforce the complacency of those that currently should be acting to deal with the real year 2000 issues,'' Kyte said.

The year 2000 (Y2K) computer bug problem stems from the once common programmer practice of using only two digits for the year in dates, such as 97 for 1997. There are fears 2000 will confuse computers and microchips embedded in machines, causing them to produce flawed data or crash. Corporations and governments across the world have been spending billions of dollars to fix their computers.

Tim Johnson, consultant at the technology researcher Ovum, agrees that 9/9/99 will turn out to be a damp squib.

DIFFUSE FAILURES ATTRACTED LITTLE ATTENTION

But Johnson said there had been computer problems generated by Y2K trigger dates and Y2K system testing. They generated little publicity because of their diffuse nature, with problems including Swedish customs and passport control hit in Gothenburg, the Bank of Scotland losing its international payments system for a day and Japanese taxi drivers getting lost because of problems contacting the GPS satellite system.

Johnson said that when December 31 arrives, isolated problems are the most likely scenario.

``Complacency is a danger, but a lot of people will be able to say 'what was the fuss all about?' I'll be very surprised if there is a critical mass of events which make people say this a disaster,'' Johnson said.

CORPORATIONS TESTING ANTI-Y2K PLANS ON 9/9/99

According to Mitul Mehta, Senior European Research Manager at technology consultant Frost & Sullivan, there will be isolated, small scale problems. He expects many big corporations to use September 9 as an opportunity to test their systems against the Y2K threat.

The U.N.-backed International Y2K Cooperation Center, a global clearing house for millennium bug data, is using September 9 to rehearse a plan to track how the world's anti-millennium bug plans are stacking up. The outfit will update its web site, www.iy2kcc.org, to show the input of 170 or more national Y2K coordinators.

ANY Y2K PROBLEMS LIKELY TO BE CUMULATIVE, NOT

EXPLOSIVE Gartner Group's Kyte said those looking for explosive evidence of computer failures on 9/9/99, as well as January 1, 2000 are missing the point.

``The majority of errors are going to happen in the few weeks running up to (December 31) and a few weeks after, with gradual inefficiency building up over computer networks.

``This reinforces the fact that year 2000 is not a pyrotechnic event. It's going to be like putting sand in a Rolls-Royce engine, it isn't going to explode, just work progressively less efficiently,'' Kyte said.

======================================== End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 06, 1999

Answers

There is only one date that's gonna cause Y2K problems and that's January 1, 2000 (actually every date past that will create problems). All these other dates occur before the century rollover and are not Y2K problems; they only get in the way of a full understanding of the Y2K question.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), September 06, 1999.

Myth, or Rare Problem? With two examples, it's not a myth. By the way, wonder where the GartnerGroup got those....probably here:

UK Nuke Alert on 9/9/99 date.

If the two examples in the article are valid, then the 9/9/99 date problem isn't a myth, it's just a rare date problem that won't be of much significance. And if the GartnerGroup has two different examples (which I doubt) that's a total of four instances reported, which qualifies as a "crisis" to some Y2K experts, lol...

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), September 06, 1999.

There are many previous threads regarding this. There may be some isolated problems in some mainframes. But I think the consensus is that the 1999-09-09 date will be a non-event, especially on PCs.

Because these other threads exist, the only reason I am responding is to warn you of pollies seizing on little or no problems ocurring due to 1999-09-09, so as to "pooh-pooh" the likelihood of major problems starting 2000-01-01.

-- vbProg (vbProg@MicrosoftAndIntelSuck.com), September 06, 1999.

My local "mullet wrapper" newspaper in the Capitol of a Major Southern State had a big front page article on the 9 9 99 problem like it was a big deal. Either the editors and writers are stupid, which is very possible or even probable or it was a deliberate lie so that when nothing happens, they will say see nothing happened therefore Y2k is all hype and nothing will happen then either and the people will go back to sleep. Shame on them. They do not seem to understand that when the power goes off, they can not publish, revenue will decrease and they could be bankrupt in a month. Amazing. Truly amazing. I plan to renew my subscription for 3 months for Sundays only so they do not fail with any more of my money than is absolutely necessary. Send them a message. Renew thru 1 1 2000 only.

-- Tom (Tom@notstupid.gom), September 06, 1999.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19990906/tc/yk_nine_2.html

...is the link for "Computer Experts Say 9/9/99 Problems A Myth".

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 06, 1999.

C'mon now you guys!!

I guarantee everyone reading this thought that Jan.1,1999 would bring problems. (None)

And again in July 1st 1999 (none)

Soooo---as logic would have it, since everyone here and elsewhere is saying no big problem!!

Get ready to be surprised!!!

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), September 07, 1999.

Yup, that's what most of the "experts" here have neen saying all along. But the media doesn't think so. All kinds of 9/9/99 stories out now.

Get ready for the next round of "Well, xxx came and went, and NOTHING HAPPENED, so Y2K is nothing."

It ain't Y2K yet, folks.

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 07, 1999.

Right on, Sysman.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), September 07, 1999.