How severe y2k will be ????

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Sometime back someone posted the "Y2k Severity List" for a newbie. I have searched late last night and am still at it. I give !!!!! This is the list of #1 being a Bump all the way to #10 being ...... That's It!! The host on C Span kept referring to it. Is it in such a simple place I am over looking it? By the way, has anyone changed their position from say two months ago? Have you moved up the list or down the list?

-- Theda (ttheda@swbell.net), September 06, 1999

Answers

dogs and cats living together,mass hysteria!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), September 06, 1999.

Theda:

1-3 are essentially nothing, to a mild recession.

4-6 are ranges of much more serious recessions, with supply/manufacturing issues thrown in that we have never had to deal with before, except oil for a short period in the '70's.

7-8 are serious depressions, 8 being Ed Yourdon's one year of weird disruptions and about a 10 year depression. I'm hoping we are lucky enough to not get any worse than this. Maybe up to a 25% to 35% chance of this happening, depending on your reading of the tea leaves.

9 is basically a destructuring of the larger countries. States, provinces, trying to go it alone. Breakdown of Federal authority in many ways/places.

10 is a descent into anarchy world wide. Expect massive population die offs, many, many local wars, banditry, warlords, the reappearance of feudalism and tribalism in many places. Not my idea of fun, but a credible chance of possibly up to 5% of this very thing happening.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), September 06, 1999.


Thanks so very much. Will print it off this time Theda

-- Theda (ttheda@swbell.net), September 06, 1999.

I personally like this description from bruce Webster at Russ Kellys' experts page

SCENARIO NAME
Level 0 Just Kidding
Level 1 A Bump in the Road Ahead
Level 2 Well, Maybe a Large Pothole
Level 3 The Dow Drops Some More
Level 4 It's The Economy Stupid
Level 5 The 1982 Recession, Revisited
Level 6 Make That The 1972 Recession
Level 7 Things Get Worse
Level 8 Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?
Level 9 Welcome To The Third World
Level 10 It Can't Happen Here


-- Arachnid (spider@web.net), September 06, 1999.


Will print the second one also. That is Cute!!!!! Thanks

-- Theda (ttheda@swbell.net), September 06, 1999.


Theda,

The best 1-10 scale I've come across is at this link:

http://wdcy2k.org/survey/survey99/

It's a very thorough and finely graduated scale.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 06, 1999.


What about all you folks who have been seriously following this for some time answering Theda's second question. Have you moved up or down the scale over the last couple of months? I too am curious about changes in opinion. My own, for what it's worth, is that by this point (Sept 6th) I would have expected some back-pedaling by the "doomer" sensibility if meaningful compliance were an actuality. By the by, I have following these conversations for several months, but this is the first posting I have made. I prefer a low profile, so keep my adress a secret, OK.

-- Bill (schlieder@prodigy.net), September 06, 1999.

A poll taken on this forum in July is at this link:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0015U1

I'm a little more optimistic about Y2K than I was in, say, November of 1998, but my personal take on it has not changed during the last two months. Quite a bit will have been fixed before January, but quite a bit will not have been fixed.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 06, 1999.


The "mission critical" work is done, we will fix the rest after the rollover. We will be testing fourth quarter 99. Visions of National Guard troops with trucks playing "Don't Worry, Be Happy" driving through city streets in January. Sub-zero temps in the Midwest kill thousands (millions)of people whom can't get to shelters. It's a bad dream that never seems to go away, and with less than 120 days to go the clock continues to tick down.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), September 06, 1999.

I think what Zoobie is really tring to say is that the irritation suffered during any probably y2k scenario would be much more painful than sitting in the buffer zone of the rabid cats and the rabid dogs at your local vetinarian clinic.

-- What is he trying to say? (may@never.know), September 06, 1999.


Preparing for an eight and believe it will be a six.

Bill, I plan on putting your e-mail address in the outhouse in Nothing, Arizona...population 4...Hwy 93..near Wikieup...NW Arizona. It is a hi-tech area so expect lots of responses.

The attached message will read, As you stand/sit in this outhouse can you imagine how it will be when TSHTF at Y2k? For more info write me....bill

-- tc (trashcan-man@webtv.net), September 06, 1999.


I think the severity is also linked to other factors, such as the "ice storm of the century", how prepared FEMA REALLY IS; the SPEED in which things go down. If they go down fast, people will be really scrambling, maybe angry, but too busy trying to keep life and limb together to go hunting a rope for the gubmint. If its a bump and then continues to bump, and bump, and bump, and people start having problems re credit cards, finances, screwed up loans, inadequate medical care, WAITING IN LINES FOR EVERYTHING, unemployment, then I think we are going to see our society come apart. (Joanne effect??) "Sweet Mrs. Roth down the street, shot the banker this morning over her home loan." Her response as to why was that she just couldn't "take anymore". Turns out her husband had lost his job the day before. "Or John Smith was caught syphoning gas out of his neighbor's storage tank." Or there was a small riot yesterday at the corner of 5th and Vine st when the water truck didn't show up. When asked about it, one participant said he had gotten there at 4am and stood in line until 3pm, without food and adequate clothing for the freezing weather. People will eat the elephant a bite at a time, and not come apart.....when there is an elephant to eat! But when its Beany Babies....watch out!

Taz...who believes in a firm 7 sliding down to a 9. When you get to 6, you are on the downside of the slope and I don't believe it can be stopped. I think at that point that it HAS to wear itself out. And just like Dennis, it will go on and on. Three day storm??? Right!

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), September 06, 1999.


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