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World Future Society Holds Y2K Conference
By Jim Lord, Jan. 4, 1999

http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Tip/Lord/lord9901.htm

[snip]

On the second day, Dr. Harrison Fox, Professional Staff, U.S House of Representatives, subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology (Rep. Steven Horn's subcommittee) gave what many considered the most sobering session of the conference.

Dr. Fox indicated that,

-By this time next year, the panic factor will be in full force and rationing will be in effect.

-Of great concern are DOD, FAA (them pesky guys again) healthcare and state and local governments (especially water systems).

-Within DOD, nuclear weapons management and logistics systems were cited as most critical.

-Three of the five oil refineries in Venezuela (which provides some seventeen percent of the oil supply in the United States) will not be compliant in time and will have to be shut down. These and other problems "will lead to disruptions" in the flow of oil.

-Medicare will "fail massively."

-The State Department is still in the "Quill and Scroll" age

-Unsatisfactory performance in dealing with Y2K is indicative of the poor management systems and practices in use in the federal government.

-A comprehensive national level strategy is still needed.

-Everyone needs to prepare for Y2K and they need to start now.

[snip]

-- mabel (mabel_louise@yahoo.com), August 31, 1999

Answers

I wonder if Dr. Fox would claim that he had relied on "old data."

-- mabel (mabel_louise@yahoo.com), August 31, 1999.

I have discussed this matter with Dr. Fox.

With regard to this quote: "By this time next year, the panic factor will be in full force and rationing will be in effect," Dr. Fox said that the context was not quite proper.

I spoke to him in January or February. I'm going on memory alone, but he told me that he was concerned that people would do their prep work at the last minute and if so, then grocery stores and other suppliers would put limits on certain items to keep a handful of customers from walking off with all the supplies. He was definitely not trying to communicate that January would bring total societal breakdown and government imposed rationing.

He did confirm that Venezuela will shut down 3 refineries, but other posters confirmed that most of our imported product is crude, not refined product.

I frankly can't recall what he said about Medicare.

In my book, Dr. Fox qualified as a GI, but not as much of a doomer as Jim Lord's piece made him out.

I'll try to find and link the old thread.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), August 31, 1999.

Thanks Mabel, doesn't look like much has changed. Medicare will fail massively caught my eye.

These committees have been extremely quite lately.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 31, 1999.