1.E-MAIL MESSAGE DATED JULY 18, 1999 FROM ED YOURDON TO PAULA GORDON PRIOR TO THE GW Y2K CONFERENCE:

My gut instinct is that..all of the top-level government and industry leaders are simply unable to provide the kind of leadership and inspirational rhetoric of, say, a Winston Churchill rallying his nation to face the acknowledged life-and-death threat of an imminent invasion by Germany. Who knows -- perhaps even Churchill would have had a difficult time if the threat had been "internal" rather than "external." It's very difficult to acknowledge that the threat you're facing is your own damn fault, and that it can't be blamed on an evil enemy; perhaps the most clever political approach to all of this would have been to blame Y2K on Saddam Hussein, and to call upon every man, woman, and child in the country to seek out all of those evil Y2K bugs and crush them...The reality, unfortunately, was best summarized by Pogo: "We have met the enemy, and they is us."

One of the scariest things about this is the possibility that official government reaction to Y2K will resemble the reaction to the 1929 stock market crash. Not only did all of the top leaders adamantly deny that such a thing could happen BEFORE the crash, but they continued to say the same thing for at least a year AFTER the crash. Lots of politicians continued making speeches well into 1930 that essentially blamed consumers and the public for maintaining such a bad attitude about the consequences of the crash. The gist of the message was: stop whining and complaing, be happy, and increase your level of confidence; if we're all feeling confident, then everything will be okay. Meanwhile, Washington did little or nothing to rectify the situation throughout 1930, 1931, and 1932.

FDR obviously took strong measures once he was sworn into office in early 1933, but that was approx 3.5 years after the "trigger event" of Black Tuesday in October... It's bad enough that the lack of leadership prior to Jan 1,2000 is going to make the consequences far worse than they had to be; but if we continue to see dithering and dawdling and blame-casting during the immediate aftermath, it could turn a "5" into a "9" on the Y2K Richter scale.

Ed

http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon/1999conference.html

-- a (a@a.a), August 25, 1999

Answers

Ed.... is it your position now that Y2K will be a 5 (as opposed to your 7.0-9.0 rating on the August edition of "Ask An Expert"?)

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), August 25, 1999.

Sandman,

I don't think that's what he's saying. He's saying that the wrong response from the feral gubbmint turns what would have been a 5 (properly handled)into a 9 (typically handled).

An all to likely outcome in my opinion.

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), August 25, 1999.

Just as there are consequences to actions, there are also consequences to inaction. Y2K leadership has been relegated, by default, to the grass roots level.

What are the consequences? If we dont change the direction in which we are going, then we will end up where we are headed. Five instead of nine? Perhaps that will be the major consequence, sadly.

It may be an idealistic notion but is there any hope left that if enough people lead, then leaders will follow? Doubtful. People are followers, not leaders. Human nature. If they do end up finally leading it will not be by choice, but rather because they were forced to. More likely, leaders will blame anyone and everyone, except themselves, of course.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@com.net), August 25, 1999.

a:

I don't think the depression will last ten years.

IMO, the United States will be destroyed within several years when nuclear missiles hit our cities.

I'm glad Ed Yourdon is more optimistic, but it won't stop the bombs.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 25, 1999.

Hmmm. That may explain why he moved to the desert SW...

-- a (a@a.a), August 25, 1999.

Ed, you say, "My gut instinct is that..all of the top-level government and industry leaders are simply unable to provide the kind of leadership and inspirational rhetoric of, say, a Winston Churchill rallying his nation to face the acknowledged life-and-death threat of an imminent invasion by Germany. Who knows -- perhaps even Churchill would have had a difficult time if the threat had been 'internal' rather than 'external.'"

Actually, "Winnie" had a difficult time trying to rally people against the Nazi threat, when then-British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain wrought his disastrous so-called appeasement {"happy face") with Hitler at Munich in November 1938. At the time, Churchill said, "By this time next year we shall know whether the Prime Minister's view of Herr Hitler and the German Nazi Party is right or wrong. By this time next year we shall know whether the policy of appeasement has appeased, or whether it has only stimulated a more ferocious appetite." And of course by that time England had declared war on Germany--sometime in the autumn of 1939, can't remember the exact date, September perhaps. It was about another year befor Churchill was elected to replace Chamberlain.

And in the "how soon they forget" department, Clement Atlee (Labour) was elected to replace Churchill just a few months after the end of the war.

I see a distinct parallel between Chamberlain's "peace in our time" and "Y2K is only a bump in the road." If Y2K turns out to be catastrophic, I hope a Churchill will arise--and I hope I can be as kind as Churchill, who later said of the British and French agreement with Hitler and Mussolini: "A sad tale of wrong judgments formed by well-meaning and capable people."

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), August 25, 1999.

All of this makes the mistaken assumption that government in our society today has anything at all to do with leading the people. In the first place, most politicians are poll-driven followers.

The main function of our government these days seems to be smoothing the way for corporate dominance of the society by crafting legislation primarily in their favor. After all, who pays for COngressmen? How many Congressmen can YOU afford?

Also, the American people seem to prefer spin and substance over real leadership. Look at the record- a second rate actor with Alzheimer's was elected twice. So was a confirmed liar, perjurer, and presumed (credibly) rapist. This doesn't even account for some of the lovely specimens of both putative party affiliations who roam our Congress and statehouses.

By our apathy and neglect, we have allowed money to corrupt our political system, and our politicians serve their money masters. Do not be surprised that they bow and scrape and bark like dogs at the behest of their owners.

Corporate America wants to downplay Y2K to save their own personal and institutional power. They have a contempt for the average citizen and no qualms about sacrificing our interests in favor of their own.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), August 25, 1999.

Old Git:

You wrote "If Y2K turns out to be catastrophic, I hope a Churchill will arise".

I don't think your wish will happen in America post Y2K.

I think an evil dictator will take control by force, killing many, and he will deceive the rest.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 25, 1999.

We've already got one Randolph...

His name is William Jefferson Blythe Clinton.

He is our current president, and our first Dictator.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), August 25, 1999.

And His Number Is 666.

Sorry ... I've been involved in a Creation vs Evolution debate on another thread. Couldn't help myself....

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 25, 1999.

KoS,

Do you like to dance the polka?

-- Anne (Anne@hitimes.net), August 26, 1999.

Our government has become as weak and corrupt as the Russian government. Are we truely free? No. We are traced, watched and pegged as sheeple or trouble makers. Those of us who see between the lines(and can read the disappearing ink) are considered trouble makers. Ever see the movie Logans Run, not a great movie but it made sense. If it was not for people like Ed, Gary North, searching, picking and bringing to light the problems that we are facing, we would going blindly into that room(as in Logans run) to die. Sheeple follow, without question. Logan questioned and was a trouble maker, he also proved to the others that they didn't have to die. Even though no one belived him until he showed them the government(Big Brother)was lieing to them. Well we know Big Brother is lieing to us..!!!

-- Cassandra (american_storm@usa.net), August 26, 1999.

Y2K will be bad enough to cause a great depression, but it won't be bad enough bring down the iron triangle and decimate the population. Y2K will destroy the economy to the point where gold rules, but it won't be so bad that an ounce gold will only buy a hand full of beans. Y2K will fry the cities but not the 'burbs. Y2K will be so bad that it will make the government an all powerful dictatorship, but it won't be so bad that it'll destroy the government. Y2K will have positive effects--yeah, if your a thrill seeker. Etc. Etc.

Makes sense to me.

-- CS Man (csm@smoke.com), August 26, 1999.

LM...

In re-reading Ed's comments, I believe you are correct--and I think he's right. A real leader could have acted forcefully to minimize the impact of Y2K, positioning the U.S. to reassume its superpower status. But doncha know, it's not PC to be a superpower. We are all just one happy global village. Right... well, come to think of it, if the Infomagic scenario plays out, we WILL all be one global village...

Old Git: You wrote "If Y2K turns out to be catastrophic, I hope a Churchill will arise". And Randolph responded: "I don't think your wish will happen in America post Y2K.

I think an evil dictator will take control by force, killing many, and he will deceive the rest." We will have decentralization for sure; whether we will have a "Postman" I don't know. I do know that nature abhors a vacuum. Someone will fill that power vacuum.

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), August 26, 1999.

We'll be here and we will be free! We win!

That's a fact.

Mark Hillyard

-- freeman (freeman@cali.com), August 26, 1999.

a snappy, yankie doodle dandy salute to ya mark!

.

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), August 26, 1999.

Cool. The b*tch is back!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), August 26, 1999.

Hey yah, welcome back corrine!

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), August 26, 1999.

Based on the "capable" government officials that I see managing various agencies, I must agree with Ed that they could easily make a five into a nine!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 27, 1999.

"His name is William Jefferson Blythe Clinton."

Hmmmm...Captain Blythe. I'm trying to remember. How did that end in Moby Dick? Did the whale win? Or was it Blythe?

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), August 29, 1999.

All that leadership with "good intentions..." God save us all from "good intentions." Some dude is quoted as saying that the road to hell is paved with 'em.

As far as i'm concerned nobody does more harm than supposedly "nice" people who are faced with "difficult decisions," do bad stuff, and feel bad about doing it. I'll bet there are tons of bureaucrats who are shredding documents, sugar coating the scope of y2k, fastidiously covering their butts AT THIS VERY MOMENT. And when asked six months from now why they did it, they will say "I'm SO SORRY, I FEEL TERRIBLE- -I DID IT ALL TO PREVENT PANIC!"

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), August 29, 1999.

The polka????????????? How uncouth! One must maintain one's dignity.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 29, 1999.

." Some dude is quoted as saying that the road to hell is paved with 'em.

That dude happened to be Karl Marx.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), August 29, 1999.