Does anyone know how Y2k will effect the manufacturing industry? A lot of machine tools used in manufacturing are CNC which stands for computer numerical control, which I would assume would have some type of imbedded chips thus having some danger of defect before, on or after Y2k.

Everyone knows that the average business (or person for that matter) does not take y2k seriously or does not have the capital to fix the problem (which includes the 10,000's of machine shops around the country). Now should these machine shops machine tools malfunction this would unable them to fulfill purchase orders which means that they will not get paid. This has many consequences but I will just use one. I will use the banking industry.

Now lets ASSUME that the entire banking industry is Y2k ready (only because of the billions of dollars theyve used to fix the problem). The banking industry has many different facets which one is equipment leasing and financing (a mere $300 Billion dollar a year industry). Now if these machine shops can't fulfill purchase orders and in turn they don't get paid because they don't have product, this will cripple the cash flow of any company. This will lead to defaults on loans and leases on these very machine tools that these machine shops are financing and leasing. Many banks have billions and billions of dollars of hard assets like machine tools on their portfolios. If banks survive internal malfunctions of Y2K how in the world can they survive the consequence a non-performing portfolio scenario.

Looking at this logically you will see the government, utility companies, major corporations and so on and so on are spending billions of dollars to be Y2K ready. IF THERE WAS NOT A Y2K PROBLEM THEY WOULD NOT BE TRYING TO FIX IT, I hope we all agree with that statement. Why isnt the backbone of are economy doing the same? Small companies are the backbone to our economy. If these small companies arent ready for y2k that would, at the very least, sink us into a recession. Some say nothing will happen but when I take a logical approach to the y2k matter and see small companies ignoring it, I cant see the logic of one saying y2k is a hoax or nothing is going to happen.

Sometimes reading these post, I feel like people are just playing a game who can come up with a more fancier way of articulating their side of it. Everyone should really examine both sides of the coin and be open minded. The truth is going to be somewhere in the middle of the world is going to end and ha ha ha you weirdo, what are you going to do with 100 pounds of wheat?

If we resort to ignorant slandering of individuals on something so small as to others opinions on Y2k, how will we all act if there were to be a Y2k crisis or any other national crisis for that matter??

Boz

-- Boz (boz_inc@yahoo.com), August 25, 1999

Answers

Saying that the truth will be in the middle sounds like a reasonable position that no one can argue with, but in fact you do not know where the truth lies. It could be a non-event, it could be TEOTWAKI. It could be a non-event for some and a cause of death for others.

Advocating a middle path is reasonable, but you have no grounds at all to predict a particular outcome on any level.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), August 25, 1999.

Your right,if you into splitting hairs of the meaning of a word.

-- Boz (boz_inc@yahoo.com), August 25, 1999.

Boz:

I can't speak for CNC machinery, but large, complicated assembly type machinery that is controlled by PLC's and programmed using Ladder Logic has been shown to have a fair number of "glitches". This based both on reading and on conversations with companies and candidates during the course of my job.

Many of these are multi-million dollar custom built machines, and are buggy as all get out NOW. Whether the turnover causes too many errors and thus impacts production or not we will soon know.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 25, 1999.

BOZ:

Good question. Think "Big-3 Auto Manufacturers." They have literally tens of thousands of suppliers, many of whom are small machine shops that turn out parts and tools for them. If the big 3 can't get their parts, their production lines shut down (Just-in-time = no inventory). If their lines shut down, they may survive for a short while on their cash reserves, but they will eventually (sooner than later) shut down. If Ford, Chrystler, and GM fall, they will take a significant portion of the economy with them. Banks will fail, regional unemployment will skyrocket, anciliary (sp?) businesses (retail, services, leisure and entertainment) will fold. This is what normally happens in a recession, and the potential for economic damage in this scenario is much higher. It will affect all areas of the economy, not just discreet industrial sectors, like most recessions do. When you think "big-3", also think "airlines," "manufacturing," "chemical," "oil," "etc, etc, etc...."

Well, that's my cheery thought for the day. I think I'll go to Sam's and buy more beans.

-- rob minor (rbminor@hotmail.com), August 25, 1999.

Boz (Of Necropolis??)

Would CNC machine tools be date aware? It would only make a difference if the chips kept track of the date AND depended upon it being correct. This sounds unlikly in systems that would be considered important enough to track time for maintenance intervals. (But that's just my guess.

Oh yeah, and if any disaster does strike I bet most of the little people (Meaning, non politicans) would suddenly start think of "us and thems" as "us and us". However, those currently in power might try to find some nasty right-wing cyber-terrorist hoarders. Of course, the pollys at that point would say "Hey wait a minute. we were wrong and they were right. we can't blame them for looking ahead and preparing. Our sorry predicament is our fault and the most we can expect from the doomers is what they can afford to give." And they stand up for us at that point. They will. Just wait and see.

So shoot me, I like happy endings.

Watch six and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), August 25, 1999.

You have hit upon the most likely event that may assure y2k is a disaster. Huge % of Americans and American businesses up to their ass in debt. Failure will flow thru the econony quickly.

-- rambo (rambo@thewoods.com), August 25, 1999.

I was just talking to a machine tool dealer who had a 1988 CNC Mill in inventory and they said it was run off a 386 computer and probably would not work at the year 2000.

-- Boz (boz_inc@yahoo.com), August 25, 1999.

So, let me add this tid-bit to the fray. My Dh is a VP for a manufacturing company based in Belgium & France. He has, thus far, been unsuccessful at getting those arrogant French and Belgians to see that the whole company, including the American division Dh runs is at risk. Something as simple as a single very important component that is manufactured in Italy could kill production. Well, I guess most of you know Italy is at the bottom of the non-compliant heap. These people just don't get it - even worse than the ostriches who live in my neighborhood. We are making contingency plans but we don't expect Dh's company will be making machines in January - no machines - no sales. Hmmmm, how many other American companies have similar tales to tell? More than you know.

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), August 25, 1999.

Speaking of machine tools, this is a grossly overlooked area of Y2K preparedness. Basic non-CNC tools, such as lathes, mills and drill presses could be critical to long-term survival/rebuilding if things go Infomagic. As you make lists of local area specialists such as doctors, nurses, veterinarians, etc., don't forget to add a good local machinist/metalworker to your list. If there is no machine shop around, it's almost a certainty that one of your neighbors will have a small hobby machine shop tucked away in a garage somewhere. This might consist of only a little 3-in-1 machine (like a Smithy) or a inexpensive Chinese metal lathe. Get to know this guy! He could be very helpful down the road.

Good luck Doc

-- T.H. "Doc" Toups (ttoups@aol.com), August 25, 1999.