Kemal Yildirim, foreground, was pulled along with his wife from the rubble Thursday in the town of Derince, but three of their relatives are feared dead. View recent images from the Turkish tragedy. Quake death toll could reach 40,000 Official toll rises over 10,000, but estimated 35,000 still buried MSNBC IZMIT, Turkey, Aug. 21  Fears that Turkeys final death toll might top 40,000 overshadowed Saturdays rise in the official tally to more than 10,200 dead and 34,000 injured. And while the rescues of three children Friday created some hope, the battle against time led one rescuer to describe the chances of finding many more survivors as very slim. Ron Allen reports from Izmit Friday on hazards that include disease and irritating smoke from an oil refinery fire AN ESTIMATED 35,000 people are under the rubble, U.N. official Sergio Piazzi told reporters, basing the number on what Turkish authorities have estimated. If most of those are found dead, the toll would easily surpass 40,000, given the official tally of 10,204 dead. AERIAL SURVEYS The estimate was made based on aerial surveys of thousands of collapsed buildings matched against population density figures. Practically one-third of the Turkish population lived in the area affected by the earthquake, Piazzi said. I can only add that in the Golcuk area alone, 10,000 people are expected to be under the rubble. Asked whether the final death toll could soar above 40,000, Piazzi replied: My answer is it is a possibility. In Turkey, basic human needs cannot be met, and there's a real fear that the dead may overwhelm the living, because the sheer volume of the carnage is a crisis in itself.

An official of Turkeys crisis center declined to comment directly on the estimate, but added: The figures are horrendous. Very many people are under the rubble. Many more than anticipated. And an American Red Cross worker in Turkey told NBCs Today show that in two towns alone 20,000 people were missing and presumably buried under rubble. Frank Donaghue described the emotional rollercoaster of finding survivors but also dealing with the death and the fear of diseases like cholera spreading among the corpses. A rescuer on the U.S. team shared that feeling, telling MSNBC of how they were able to free one boy but had to abandon another site even though a woman pleaded with them to stay. Greg Bunch added that the chances are really slim now that we will find more survivors. ... the devastation in this area and what the people have gone through is probably the worst Ive seen. GIRLS RETURN TO LIFE Thousands of survivors and rescuers refused to give up the search, though, and several new rescues were reported Friday. Tragedy in Turkey  The latest news  Dreams defiled: Nicole Pope reports  Burials overwhelm survivors  Israeli team are rescue pros  Islamic groups in U.S. help  Hope for predicting quakes  How U.S. cities prepare  Slideshow of the tragedy  NBC affiliates report  5 Americans die in quake  Threat of disease looms  Bill Nye: Science of quakes

Hungarian specialists with sniffer dogs pinpointed where a toddler was trapped after workers heard a voice under a collapsed house in Izmit. After five hours of digging, the girl was pulled out, frail, thin and barely moving, to cheers from the gathered crowd. She was rushed by ambulance to a nearby medical camp. A few miles away, Russian rescuers saved a 16-year-old girl in the port town of Golcuk. And Israeli rescuers reported having pulled an 11-year-old girl from the rubble alive. An Israeli army statement said the soldiers dug for 17 hours to reach the girl, who was trapped under a collapsed building in the town of Cinarcik, near the city of Yalova in western Turkey. The girl was receiving medical treatment. Her condition was unclear. In Turkey, hope is fading as the death toll continues to rise after Tuesday's devastating earthquake. Tens of thousands are still missing and time to locate survivors is running out. NBC's Ned Colt reports.

Its surprising that she managed to survive, said a doctor on the Israeli team. He said that only the girls left cheek and mouth had been visible when searchers first heard her voice. During the long hours while we rescued her, we managed to teach her a few words in Hebrew and we built a lot of trust, the doctor told Israel Radio. He said he had hugged the girl when she was pulled free and admired her beautiful big blue eyes. NBCs Ned Colt reported Friday that such rescues are becoming less frequent, however, and in many cases are undertaken by desperate families. HEALTH FEARS There were growing fears of diseases like typhoid and cholera breaking out given the thousands of decomposing bodies under the rubble. Rescue workers were being immunized as a precaution. Perhaps the greatest problem now facing us is that of epidemic, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit told reporters in the capital Ankara. The stench of decay pervades flattened towns like Adapazari, where at least 2,800 people were killed. Crushed sewage lines and the thousands of homeless living on garbage-strewn streets without portable toilets or fresh water compounded the risk of cholera or other infectious diseases spreading. We cant cope with this, Oguz Titiz, a doctor, told local television. Vomiting and diarrhea started showing up last night, especially among children and the elderly. MORE TREMORS And hundreds of thousands camped out again overnight in case of new collapses brought on by aftershocks. NBCs Ron Allen reported from Izmit Friday that some 200 aftershocks were measured overnight in just a few hours. MSNBCs Nicole Pope reports on growing anger at the Turkish government On Thursday, officials in the province of Bursa ordered 2 million people to abandon their homes for fear of another large quake. Our citizens have been warned to spend the night outside against any possibility of an earthquake, said a spokesman for the governors office. The appeal came after the chief of Turkeys main earthquake observatory warned the public to be on alert because of what he called unusual seismic activity. Bursa, Turkeys fifth biggest province, is home to scores of leading industrial plants. MOOD OF DESPERATION Dwindling food supplies on top of crippled power and water lines in some areas added to the mood of desperation. Crowds mobbed a convoy of bread trucks that entered Izmit.

When are they going to come and help us? When we are all dead? cried Zeyfettin Kus in front of a collapsed apartment in Izmit where three neighbors were buried. He could no longer hear cries for help. The Radikal newspaper blasted officials in a large headline: The rescue is a pure fiasco. The dead included five members of a Marietta, Ga., family, the first Americans reported killed in the disaster. MORGUES OVERFLOW Throughout western Turkey, bodies overflowed hospital morgues and were stacked in refrigerated meat trucks. Ecevit warned unclaimed bodies would have to be buried immediately, even if it means not giving relatives a last chance to positively identify loved ones. If this is not done, very serious health and epidemic problems could emerge. For that reason our unclaimed citizens will be identified by photographs, he said. At the American Hospital in Istanbul, nurse Lynda Mikalauskas told MSNBC that the injuries theyve seen there include many cervical and spinal fractures. As for the disaster zones outside Istanbul, she added, they are in desperate need of body bags and other morgue tools. MANY QUAKES, LITTLE CHANGE Criss-crossed by seismic fault lines, Turkey suffers frequent earthquakes and tremors. Some 96 percent of the country and 98 percent of the population are in a high risk area. Nearly 33,000 people died in the eastern city of Erzincan in 1939, some 2,400 were killed in Varto in 1966 and another 653 in Erzincan again in 1992. A further 145 people died around the southern city of Adana last year. After the 1992 quake, a project was begun with World Bank support to review construction regulations and recommend changes to tighten laws. But the project is still unfinished. Moreover, those familiar with Turkish building laws say it is not the lack of regulations, of which there are many, but patchy enforcement. Some 40,000 dead would make the Turkish quake the seventh deadliest on record worldwide. The deadliest quake claimed 240,000 lives in China in 1976. Burials overwhelm the survivors MSNBCs Nicole Pope, NBCs Ron Allen, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report. In Yalova, dreams turned to dust Threat of disease looms in Turkey Israeli team races to rescue in Turkey 5 Americans die in quake Burials overwhelm the survivors Turkey -- Encarta Encyclopedia Article

Information on Turkey's tragedy via the U.N. Relief Web Turkish Daily News Online Turkey: 1998 State Department human rights report Ethnolinguistic Groups in the Caucasus Region

Complete coverage MSNBC VIEWERS' TOP 10 Would you recommend this story to other viewers? not at all 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 highly MSNBC is optimized for  Microsoft Internet Explorer  Windows Media Player  MSNBC Terms, Conditions and Privacy ) 1999 Cover | Quick News | News | Business | Sports | Local | Technology | Living & Travel | Health TV News | Opinions | Weather | Shopping | MSN | Comics | Find | About MSNBC | Help | Index Cool Tools | Jobs | Write Us | Advertising on MSNBC | Y2K Statement | Terms, Conditions, and Privacy

-- PREPARE NOW! (thisis@thefuture.com), August 21, 1999

Answers

Typical doomer fear tactics. Look at the scary earthquake!

Y2K will be like this !

Run to Sams, Run to Costco!

PREPARE FOR THE END OF THE WORLD !

-- no foil here (nofoilhere@hi.com), August 21, 1999.

Thanks for the common sense reminder - time is running out. Should something major catch the publics' imagination - you may have run out of time...

Plenty of tinfoil here...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 21, 1999.

Sounds perfectly reasonable, doesn't it? Y2K will be just like an earthquake, except the ground won't shake. About what I expect.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 21, 1999.

Poor ol' Tinfoil Andy - graspin' at straws...

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 21, 1999.

Maybe we can send Andy to Turkey.

-- Snuggle Bunny (Andy@needs.foil), August 21, 1999.

4 to 1 assholes making fun over a tragic situation...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 21, 1999.

"Crushed sewage lines and the thousands of homeless living on garbage- strewn streets without portable toilets or fresh water compounded the risk of cholera or other infectious diseases spreading. We cant cope with this, Oguz Titiz, a doctor, told local television. Vomiting and diarrhea started showing up last night, especially among children and the elderly. "

How anyone can read an article like this and make flip deragatory remarks is beyond my understanding. It betrays such an immature and callous mind that it boggles the imagination as to who or what could be SO lacking in compassion.

Children and Grandparents are dieing in the streets.

I am sitting here weeping over those poor people and these trolls are still pushing their own wierd agenda. Talk about being desperate for attention. May whatever God you pray too have mercy on your souls.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 21, 1999.

This points out a very real concern.

The rest of the world is in much worse condition today than the USA and our industrialized allies. If Kosovo, Turkey, Honduras, Pakistan, Russia, China and on and on are in such dire straits today, we all should pray for them in the event of any Y2K debacle. Even a BITR may be the last straw for some desparate nations.

I recall a speech by Shanti Feldhan (sp?) about Y2K in the industrialized world versus Y99 in the third world. The third world has ongoing severe problems today - they do not need Y2K to introduce disruptions - they are already at a 8-10 on the 1-10 scale.

At least in Turkey today, international relief efforts are available and having a beneficial aid in recovery. Post Y2K, international relief efforts may well be severely hampered.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), August 21, 1999.

"We will bury you..." - Brezhnev - 60's

"We will nuke LA..." - Chinese foreign minister, last year...

-- andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 21, 1999.