Given that EVERY single prognostication about when we would start noticing Y2K effects have been incorrect, at which date, in your opinion, will effects become apparent? August 21? September 9? January 1? May 15? When?

"On January 1, 1999 they will experience many more, and it will be much more difficult to sweep them under the rug. On April 1, 1999 we will all watch anxiously as the governments of Japan and Canada, as well as the state of New York, begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year; at that moment, the speculation about Y2K will end, and we will have tangible evidence of whether governmental computer systems work or not."-- Ed Yourdon

"... I believe we'll start seeing [disruptions] by this summer, and I believe they'll continue for at least a year. As many people are now aware, 46 states (along with Australia and New Zealand) will begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year on July 1, 1999; New York (and Canada) will already have gone through their Y2K fiscal rollover on April 1, and the remaining three states begin their new fiscal year on August 1, September 1, and October 1. We also have the GPS rollover problem to look forward to on August 22nd, as well as the Federal government's new fiscal year on October 1st.

There is, of course, some finite probability that all of these rollover events will occur without any problems; but there's also a finite probability that pigs will learn to fly."

-- Ed "Flying Pig" Yourdon

April 1, 1999. On this date, Canada, Japan, and the State of New York begin their fiscal year. This will, of course, include dates beyond Y2K. As a result, planning systems, especially budgets that have not been repaired will fail as they attempt to process Y2K dates. Since New York City is the media capitol of the world, problems there will grab headlines worldwide. Problems in Japan will remind everyone again of how interconnected our world is. The Japanese will also be forced to admit that there systems might not make it. I expect the stock market to react and begin (or continue) its downward spiral. Public confidence will continue to wane and the number of Y2K optimists will continue to dwindle.

July 1, 1999. On this date, forty-four U.S. states begin their fiscal years. The problems that began in New York will now spread exponentially across the country and around the world. The public will feel the global and pervasive nature of the Y2K Problem for the first time. This will be further exacerbated by the fact that many states have not had the resources to adequately address their Millennium Bug problems. Consequently, the failures will be real and widespread.

From the 12 Oct 1998 issue of Westergaard - Michael Hyatt

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 16, 1999

Answers

Thank you for your inquiry. At this time, your question has been judged as somewhat premature. Please ask us again after January 1, 2000. Thank you again, and have a nice day. Dumbass.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 16, 1999.

In answer to when we would start noticing Y2K effects.

We are already noticing Y2K effects. The question is not when they will be noticed - the question is when and if they will reach critical mass.

-- Jean (jmacmanu@bellsouth.net), August 16, 1999.

We knew it was a problem in 1970. (Well, I didn't. I was 8 years old.) We know it's a problem now. We'll know more for certain on January 1, 2000. We'll know if it's a "show stopper" by April or May. There were problems on 1/1/99, 4/1/99/ 7/1/99, and with testing. There will probably be problems on 8/22/99 and 9/9/99 as well. If the past is an indication, then luckily, they won't be too bad. Big whew! Does that mean we should let our guard down for 1/1/00 and beyond? If you're comfortable doing so, then by all means, do so.

In the long run, however, I suspect that it will most likely come down in a way that none of us has imagined. Not too difficult to understand, in my opinion.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 16, 1999.

When you are deemed non-mission critical and people like me decide not to pay you on 2/29/00.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001AWz

====================================================================

Oh yes, my Precious, we shall see.

LOTR, JRR Tolkein (BBC adaptation)

-- Nelson Isada (isada@alaska.net), August 16, 1999.

Jean: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 16, 1999.

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001AdE

Government's top Y2K expert predicts failures for weeks, months

July 30, 1999

Web posted at: 12:06 PM EDT (1606 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Don't expect the Year 2000 technology problem to disappear after Jan. 1. President Clinton's top Y2K expert said failures could extend well beyond New Year's Day.

Although John Koskinen predicts there will be a national "sigh of relief" in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.

Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press that some failures may not become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card bills and other financial paperwork.

"It won't evaporate until after that," Koskinen said. "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem." But he also slightly hedged his predictions: "None of us are really going to know until after January 1."

Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when those machines will assume it is 1900.

Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may take weeks to notice.

"The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing it correctly but it's doing it all wrong," Koskinen said.

Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Monday, Jan. 3, as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the first time.

Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even though most years ending in "00" don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.

A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign governments.

Koskinen urged people to prepare for possible trouble as they might for a winter storm or a hurricane: Buy flashlights and batteries, keep enough cash, food and water for several days and make copies of financial and medical records.

But he also cautioned against stockpiling supplies, which could lead to local shortages, or draining bank accounts, which could strain the nation's financial system.

"If we get a couple hundred million Americans doing anything differently, we're going to create economic problems," he said.

An AP poll this month found most Americans don't expect major problems, but nearly a third plan to stock up on food, water and other supplies. About one-quarter of Americans planned to withdraw cash in case of trouble.

Koskinen predicted the most widespread problems will occur in developing nations that were slow to begin repair work. He named certain regions that recently suffered financial problems, including Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Russia. But he acknowledged that parts of Africa, Central America, South America and the Caribbean also were likely to suffer.

"Clearly, some of the developing countries of the world are going to have some difficulties," he said, adding that only 25 to 30 of the world's nations were well prepared. "Many more countries are going to have problems than not."

The State Department will begin issuing travel advisories in September for U.S. citizens about which countries to avoid.

Koskinen also disclosed that the government will consider evacuating American citizens from countries with widespread failures. He said each U.S. ambassador will make that decision.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 16, 1999.

Now let's not be too hard on ole Y2K Pro. You can see how confused he is about this matter and how hard he is trying to pin down the extent of the problem and the warning signs. Be gentle with him. Tell him slowly, slowly.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 16, 1999.

The TinFoils are just going to be pushing back the window. If 1/1/2000 comes around and all we see is little snafus then they will say "Wait, its not over yet, some things wont materialize until (a) the end of January, (b) the end of the first quarter, (c) the end of the window for embedded chips to fail 12 to 18 months later, etc..

They will say "Everyone is lying, they are having terrible trouble but are covering it up, it WILL all fall apart very soon, sometime in February or March of 2000".

They will say "We are running out of supplies but because companies stockpiled before 1/1/2000 they are just running out now, it will become obvious early in the Spring and there will be PANIC!!!"

I think some of them will realize how pitiful their lives will be without the constant Y2k preparation and drum beating that they will find any reason to drag this out for at least a full year.

-- watcher (watcher@looking.com), August 16, 1999.

What has been said is true: there have been demonstrated Y2K failures with every one of these dates as well as production implementations and live testing. What has not happened is such a large scale volume of failures as to overwhelm the support staff responsible for minimizing their interruptions. Add to that the spin campaign (yes, it's real) that is minimizing or hiding these impacts. Also, in many cases, there may not have been a noticeable disruption, but rather, something that may have impacted cost or revenue and it was just "written off the books." In any event, Y2K related failures are happening and are increasing.

As far as when will we "know" if Y2K is a "problem": it depends on what you mean by "know" & "problem." Some know there are problems right now; some will never know. Some may think there are no "problems" (only annoyances or inconveniences); some may think their whole lives are problems.

Y2K is objective in its root nature - but is subjective (as all things are) in its interpretation. How much you view it as a problem depends upon where the impacts are and how self-sufficient one is (among trillions fo other factors). I am beginning to be less concerned about Y2K, primarily because of my preps and my revised mental outlook on material things, most of which I now find are worthless and would have no problem living without. Notice I said "less concerned about Y2K," not "more convinced that Y2K will be a non-event" or some crap like that. Y2K will happen however it happens, but the more prepared one is the less impact it will have on them.

Short answer: you'll know by Summer 2000. But remember, Y2K does not happen in a vacuum. In fact it may well be relatively insignificant in its own right, but serve as a catalyst for more devastating problems.

-- Jim (x@x.x), August 16, 1999.

King of Spain:

I have often wondered about that question that you ask. Is that a question about preferences? Likes? Dislikes? or an invitation?

In any event, it always makes me smile. But even so, the answer is no.

-- Jean (jmacmanu@bellsouth.net), August 16, 1999.

KoS, Where do you live? I have been training by lifting 55-gallon water barrels--full of water, of course.

Y2K Pro, watcher...like, duh. We are having failures, wake up. You want an exact date at which it will sorely impact your lives? It would be impacting your lives right now if you had any smarts. You would be shopping already and preparing for a world that will obviously come. I wish you guys no harm. I hope you can pick up on the reality. God bless.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 16, 1999.

>> When will we know if Y2K is a problem? <<

Although I have never gotten the hang of shaping a tinfoil hat (too technical for me) I think I can give you some guidance on this.

Y2K is a problem today. It is already pulling a massive amount of IS resources from projects that companies might prefer to pursue - to the tune of more than $400 billion in the USA alone. That meets my definition of "a problem".

So far, remediation efforts have found and solved many individual problems related to Y2K. For instance, the port authority in my home town (Port of Portland) found one embedded chip that failed its Y2K test and had to be replaced. The chip was in a gigantic loading crane. Had the testing not been done, that crane would have stopped functioning at rollover. That meets my definition of "a problem". It is now a fixed problem, thank goodness.

It is also apparent to me that, while the existance of such Y2K problems have been demonstrated beyond a doubt, an unknown number of these problems have not been discovered or fixed. Although the number of such unfixed problems is unknown, their existance is completely certain. The fallibility of humans is statistically demonstrable.

That certainty is why I know today that Y2K rollover will be a problem. The only real question is not "is it a problem", but "how much of a problem will it be".

I don't know. That remains to be seen. I do have my guesses, though.

Based on the extent of economic activity affected by computers, and the nature of the known Y2K problems, I think it is a fairly safe prediction to forecast that Y2K will slow down the economy for at least one quarter, at a minimum. Given the precarious position of the global economy at present (I greatly disagree with the popular view that things are mighty rosy) I think there is a significant chance that even minimal Y2K effects could serve as a trigger event for more serious economic trouble. Like a full-scale depression. This is far less than certain, but far more than remote, to my thinking.

As for your quotes from authority -- you clearly think that these represent some sort of standard by which the reality of the Y2K problem may be judged. You're wrong. Prediction is a nororiously erratic process. Yet, that doesn't stop us from finding value in foresight.

Instead of trumpeting the unsurprising fact that some Y2K predictions have turned out wrong, why not give us your own considered opinion of what might happen, and why you think so? Sure that is risky. You could be wrong! But it is intellectually more honest, and practically more useful in a discussion about the shape of the future. In such a discussion, everyone risks being wrong. We don't need you to tell us that.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), August 16, 1999.

One more time, for the "special" people in the audience.

IT'S CALLED THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM!!! (Keyphrase: year 2000)

I went to my local grocery store for more Reynolds wrap, alluminum foil, and to my horror they were OUT!! My new puppy ripped apart my hat and I just HAVE to make another. I think my puppy is a Mason.

Your funny Pro. To you there is only black and white, or should I say tinfoil or notinfoil. Did it ever occur to you that the truth(not as you see it, but the REAL truth) may be somewhere inbetween? Kind of a tinfoil half hat. Oh well, just thought I'd try to bring you back from candyland.

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), August 16, 1999.

The recently adopted Y2K liability act will apply to any Y2K failure or potential Y2K failure that occurs prior to 2003, and it applies retroactively to any Y2K action brought during 1999.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), August 16, 1999.

Some well thought out and considered opinions here (excluding poor ol' Gord and the king of pain) Since one is almost always confronted with the Andy/Milne/Invar nonsense, it is easy to forget that there are diverging opinions in the "GI" camp.

Brian said:

"Instead of trumpeting the unsurprising fact that some Y2K predictions have turned out wrong, why not give us your own considered opinion of what might happen, and why you think so?"

"Some" predictions have not turned out wrong - they all have. Certainly those that are considered leaders in the GI/Doomer/Tinfoil camp have provided unequivical predictions. They have been wrong every single time. I think that fact deserves attention - don't you? As far as my predictions, I've given them before. As a consultant who works for a large company that (currently) specializes in Y2K remediation, I think the date change will be the biggest non-event of the decade. (For those that live inside the IT industry it means a lot of overtime) Every industry that I have had the occasion to view from the inside is far more prepared than you would believe - the PR flaks and the lawyers are running things, to the detriment of their industry.

Perhaps my ancillary question must be: Do you believe the power will go off in YOUR neighborhood on January 1?

If you do, for how long?

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 16, 1999.

Say, this whole tinfoil hat thingy has got me to thinking. I hear the Japanese are in big trouble, both for financial and nuclear exposures. And the Japanese are masters at folding a piece of paper (or tinfoil, why not) into all sorts of neat shapes, including hats. What is the word for it, Oragami? Anyway, we maybe ought to be adding some of those books to our stockpile right now so we can have a bigger and better choice of "hatstyles" available later. Thanks Y2k Pro! You gave me a great idea.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 16, 1999.

Ask Kosky-- the polly king. (No offense to KOS....Kosky no doubt lower on the food chain than KOS)

-- bill (tinfoil@sombrero.com), August 16, 1999.

I'm glad to see you finally had one - an idea that is...

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 16, 1999.

To be sure, nobody wants a power outage. Cross our fingers and knock on wood. IMHO, failures that occur prior to the rollover give technicians more time to fix them, so in a strange way, pre-rollover failures are good news (in a way).

A programmer friend of mine is doing remediation at a large healthcare insurer in Illinois, and their efforts are going extremely well. They expect to be done before year-end, testing included. Unfortunately, many companies may not be as prepared as his company is. Not to mention companies in Asia or South America.

If anyone here has contacts with foreign companies, I'd like to hear how overseas companies' remediation efforts are going (assuming that they have serious efforts underway). How about it? Anyone?

-- cynic (cynic@skeptic.com), August 16, 1999.

Before February 1st, I didn't know one way or another if the Jo Anne Effect was going to cause noticeable problems that would end up being reported. After February 1st, when Wal-Mart and some other companies entered their fiscal year 2000 with no reported problems, I realized that what PNG had been saying was true...that problems in accounting software aren't nearly as noticeable to outsiders as problems in manufacturing or distribution would be.

We won't hear that much about Y2K-related manufacturing or distribution problems until January 2000. It was clear to me in February that we weren't going to hear much about fiscal year rollover problems in accounting software on April 1st and July 1st. Most people on this forum weren't expecting "show-stoppers" on April 1st and July 1st either, and yet the issue of few reported problems has been repeatedly thrown in our faces.

Anyone who honestly wants to learn more about the significance and non-significance of fiscal year rollovers in accounting software can find quite a few links about it on the following thread:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f

"Significance of States Fiscal Start"

Almost all non-accounting software problems, BIOS problems and embedded system problems are still ahead of us. Those are the ones with the potential of being "show-stoppers." Personally, I'm concerned the most about shortages and supply-chain problems.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 16, 1999.

>> As a consultant who works for a large company that (currently) specializes in Y2K remediation, I think the date change will be the biggest non-event of the decade. (For those that live inside the IT industry it means a lot of overtime) Every industry that I have had the occasion to view from the inside is far more prepared than you would believe... <<

Based on reports, the large companies that can afford the services your company provides are the ones most likely to weather the rollover with the fewest internal problems. I find that encouraging.

But, the view from inside may sometimes be as misleading as the view from outside. Each large company relies on a host of small and medium sized businesses. Those companies rely on still others. So, even as an insider you are only able to gain firsthand knowledge of a very small slice of the remediation effort required, and you have only a limited window into the overall (global) success of that effort.

As for your contention that "all" Y2K predictions have failed, that is ridiculous (sorry). Those you cite so frequently are among the more spectacular of the failures. You somehow don't deem the less spectacular ones as worthy of your consideration.

It was long ago predicted that Y2K problems would be widespread and would require massive remediation efforts to fix. Your current job in Y2K remediation is proof that this prediction came true. Perhaps you are falling victim to the perception that, once a prediction of this sort comes to pass, it is by definition an uninteresting or "obvious" prediction, and therefore tatamount to no "real" prediction at all. Nope. Not true. This was not common knowledge at one time. It took perception to see it and to speak it. It came true.

Try to understand that you are quite as likely to be wrong as others whose views fall nearest the middle of the bell curve. Your predictions are contraverted by some pretty staid and well-informed folks, like Koskinen and other experts. Those who position themselves at the edges of that curve are pretty easy targets.

Will the lights go out in my neighborhood? Likely not. In my neck of the woods (Pacific NW) most of our generating capacity is hydroelectric. BPA isn't perfect, but they have a shallow curve to climb. I figure less than a 5% chance of power failure here due to Y2K. YMMV.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), August 16, 1999.

Pat, What does it mean when you say we shouldn't let our guard down? Just curious.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), August 16, 1999.

iNFIDeL!!!!! spEAk nOT oF TIn foIL tO dIETeR!!!!! jaCKAL!!!! wHo BUys TiN FOiL THeSE DaYS AnywAY, hyENa??????? wE ARe "tHE GUilD Of tHE foRMEd alUMInuM foIL BerETs", yOU deMENtED thREE toeD SLotH!!!!!!! as TO tHE AnswER tO YoUR INsidIOUs quERy, wILL NoT DIetER FEeL aLL iS WEll If tHE WOrLD FUnctIONs THRouGH maY Of 2000????? oF COurSE!!!!!!! iF aLL Is WEll tHEN, aLL ShaLL reMAIn weLL, sO SPeaKEtH The DieTEr!!!! buZZarD scROtUM!!!!

i HAte YoU!!!!!

-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), August 16, 1999.

Maria,

Based on the context, it seems to me that Patrick was saying this isn't the time to become complacent, and that we should continue making contingency plans for our families.

Patrick, correct me if I'm wrong.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 16, 1999.

Uh, tomorrow? No, wait, Thursday.

Idiot.

-- br14 (br14@bout.done), August 16, 1999.

Gee Y2K-Pro thats a tuff one outside of the real date to be delt with But I guess if I had to pick some nasty goings on prior to the rollover I would have to go with my Government on this one. For almost a year now the Banking boys have try to impress J Q Public with the readyness of some 200 Billion by Sept. They always said Sept. The military for almost a year now in there preps for the big event schueld completion for Sept 1. and are in fact ready to rumble. Whether they know somthing about GPS that we dont or just an educated guess on there part, who knows, but if I had to pick a month prior for me it has to be September...we shall see. sorry on the spelling

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), August 16, 1999.

Brian said: It was long ago predicted that Y2K problems would be widespread and would require massive remediation efforts to fix. Your current job in Y2K remediation is proof that this prediction came true. Perhaps you are falling victim to the perception that, once a prediction of this sort comes to pass, it is by definition an uninteresting or "obvious" prediction, and therefore tatamount to no "real" prediction at all. Nope. Not true. This was not common knowledge at one time. It took perception to see it and to speak it. It came true.

You are of course correct that the prediction "Y2K will be a problem if we don't get our asses in gear" was undoubtedly prudent sooth-saying. However, the Tinfoil liturgy since that time has been less, shall we politely say, accurate. Predictions about the date change, from the Tinfoil perspective, have been astonishingly inaccurate.

Despite unfulfilled predictions that would get you fired if you made them as part of a business plan, there are a legion of Doomers who follow these same false prophets over the cliff - all the way proclaiming; "THE CODE IS BROKEN, IT CAN'T BE FIXED...

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), August 16, 1999.

You will begin to notice (if you haven't already) when you sober up and learn to read. I will gladly lend you my foil hat, if you think it will help! For your answer,,,,, let's try Jan. 1st thru the 7th. When these failures happen there will be no covering it up behind the scenes. Give it up pro,,,,,, you will be left on the dust heap of time. You can no longer support your polly position. Just go away queitly. Old pollies don't die they just fade awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), August 16, 1999.

Maria,

Good question!

Linkmeister,

Exactly the right answer!

Some guy on a thread a few days ago said something to the effect that "if nothing happens on 9/9/99, I'm giving up on this Y2K stuff." My feeling is more along the lines of, if things are still cool next May, then I'll be able to make a big donation to the local food bank. We won't necessarily know on Monday after the New Year's weekend...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 16, 1999.

Bold off.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 16, 1999.

h3 off.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 16, 1999.

dIETeR!!!!! We've not heard from you in SO LONG!! Love your posts; you always make me smile(and think)....don't be a stranger around here!!!

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), August 16, 1999.

y2k pro is so concerned about the non-event s/he haunts here almost daily. is it chained to this forum? or demonstrating a y2k pro disconnect?

-- actions speak (louderth@n.words), August 16, 1999.

Y2K Pro,

I'm assuming you're asking, "When can I laugh like a jackal (ala' Shadow), and not get flamed?". The answer is never. There will still be a few die-hards around in 2010, who will say, "Just wait! Just wait!".

As for myself, if there hasn't been any significant disasters by this time next year, I'll be pretty relaxed. There's always the possibility of something happening after that, mind you, but there comes a point where prudent precaution, becomes morbid neurosis. There's also always the chance of that errant asteroid striking the Earth, but I try to not spend TOO many nights, lying awake and worrying about it.

My expectation is for little problems to pop up here and there, like a wac-a-mole game, things will collapse, if too many of those little problems come on the same day. It's a crap-shoot, really. My biggest worries are single source disasters, like chem plant and refinery explosions, power outages and severe economic problems caused my massive small business failures. (The supply chain will be shakey, but not collapsed. We're not so far away from older technologies that we don't remember how they work. Shipments will be delivered, but forget about overnight deliveries. Large companies will be able to absorb the cost of delayed shipments and frequent power outages, small businesses will not.)

As to the second question: The power will go out sometime in early January, and be out for a week or better. If it's a severe cold snap, this is when the massive "polly die-out" will happen. Black-outs will roll after that and get of a shorter duration, as time goes on, and utilities get a handle on things.

That they will get a handle on it, is based on my faith in the profit motive. If there's money, or tins of tuna, or what ever passes as currency, to be made, it'll get fixed, one way or another.

Of course all is IMHO.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@ohI'mtiredoftypingit.com), August 16, 1999.

When will Y2K Pro know that Y2K is not a problem?

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 16, 1999.

If you are walking across the street and see someone down the road get hit by a dangerously driven car then that isn't a problem for you.

If you are walking across the street and you get hit by the same dangerously driven car, then that's a problem.

and now for something completely different.

'Little Johnny was walking home from school one day, he was about to cross the road. He thought, why should I bother looking both ways like my mother tells me too? After all I've seen no one else get hit by a car and those stories I've heard are just that stories. I've seen no evidence whatsoever that people have been hit by cars or been killed by them. So he walks across the road and the school bus turns him into a bloody pulp.'

and ...

A motorist discovers that his brakes don't seem up to par, he doesn't worry about getting them fixed. He can still stop and he hasn't hit anyone yet or had any close calls or anything. One day he drives down a hill and a car suddenly cuts in front of him, due to his bad brakes he is unable to stop in time.

Now if only they were all prepared in some way, the first one could have stopped walking across the road, Little Johnny could have looked both ways and the driver should have had his brakes checked. Just in case because you never know.

Regards, Simon

-- Simon Richards (simon@wair.com.au), August 17, 1999.