The Simplicity of Y2K: Infrastructure Threats

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It is likely, though not certain, that Y2K will not result in anything WORSE than a depression, though this will not console people who lose loved ones due to supply chain breakdown if such happens. Also, I won't rehash the differences between our culture and the culture of the 1930s. That is OT for purposes of this thread.

It is at least as likely, though not certain, that successful attacks by foreign powers or terrorists (international or domestic) will be made on U.S. infrastructure over the next decade. These attacks may be localized, regional or national.

If our government is to be believed (never certain), this threat is real and imminent (in the sense that attacks could be launched this very day). Some data suggests the Russians have been successfully penetrating our infrastructure throughout 1999. Experiments by our own military indicate that the utility grid, to take one instance, could be brought down successfully by attackers with reasonable access to money, time and knowledge.

Consequently, whether the grid is collapsed by Y2K or not, all key segments of infrastructure (utility, telecom/Internet, other energy, finance) are at risk until at least 2010 (ie, while efforts are made to understand and resist such attacks). Even identifying the perp is a major cyber challenge.

A wise social policy would call for a gradual but increasing set of measures to enhance urban, suburban and rural capability to function safely for significant periods of time should a successful attack be made. Beginning with rational civil defense/recovery against suitcase bombs (cf mainstream media coverage of Bin Laden), this should include encouragement for all reasonable civilian preps.

IOW, the efforts underway at the sister Y2K prep forum, while totally targeted for now on Y2K, should have a longer horizon in view. We need to frame a steady, wise, patient cultural "philosophy" of self-reliance that is suited to the technical age we live in (ie, not Luddite).

If we're lucky, a Y2K BITR will give us more time to do this, though it will sadly lower the urgency that might protect us better in the long run. More realistically, Y2K impacts will open a window, duration uncertain, to jump-start this process.

Y2K isn't complicated. Our global infrastructure has been revealed to have multiple exposures that we did not understand before (I speak as an IT professional with 20+ years deep experience).

Meanwhile, far from questioning your preps, take the long as well as the short view. Most likely, your Y2K preps represent the start of a new way of looking at your relationship to the technology that surrounds you. Whether you realize it or not, you are doing your fellow citizens a future service.

It's Y2K, stupid. But not only Y2K.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 13, 1999

Answers

Big Dog

Well said. It's no suprise that I agree with most of what you posted. Teaching people to be prepared and self reliant as a cultural norm would greatly benefit the United States. Having achived a measure of self reliance for myself and my family, I intend to stay that way. In the event of a national disaster, I will take cae of me and mine. And a few others. They are my family, my responsibility. I accept the responisbility of providing for them AND keeping them from being a burden on the rest of society. It is one of my duties as a citizen of this great country.

Watch six and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), August 13, 1999.


Hey Big Dog,

I was thinking similar thoughts during lunch today about the paradox of an organic species's ever-incrasing reliance on complex technologies. Regardless of the outcome, Y2K has DEFINITELY changed my view of that relationship. I'll never take the purely biological aspect of the human condition for granted again!

Best,

-- M.C. Hicks (mhicks@greenwich.com), August 13, 1999.


Good start. As complement to the re-evaluation of our relationship to technology and technology owners, a re-evaluation of our relationship to others is also needed (or at least, a discussion of productive possibilities for now). It has been said that no man is an island unto himself. I would take this further... ontologically. I would argue that with rare exception, human beings can not be fulfilled or live fully without others and without relationships with others. The retreat to the anonymous apartment complex is not only problematic a la the anonymous apartment dweller's significant vulnerabilities to technological failures, but the anonymous life poses problematics that affect the very soul or personhood of the anonymous apartment dweller.

Alas, vacation is over. Care-free hours to post on the board are gone. Until another intentional lull...

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), August 13, 1999.


Big Dog,

You make an excellent point.

Yesterday during the Chicago power outage Paul McCoy President of ComEd was asked at a press conference if sabatoge had been ruled out. He said that it had not been ruled out.

I think being prepared for this possible eventuality is prudent.

A couple of weeks ago Taiwan had a major outage in the midst of their sabre rattling with China.

I remember that people were terrified (who could blame them?). If a nation & it's citizens have effective contingency plans for this type of situation I believe that it would render this type of 'terrorisim', bullying, & harrassment impotent.

What fun is terrorism without the terror?

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), August 13, 1999.


That's the basic difference between other countries and the U.S. As Deborah said, the people in Taiwan "were terrified (who could blame them?)" Power outages annoy us, but Americans seldom think of terrorism. How much would have to go down before it got people's attention?

Here is a little excerpt from Tom Wolfe's book In Our Time entitled:

"The Fall of Nixon." The chief lesson of Watergate: the stability of the American political system is profound. If has a center of gravity like a 102-inch High Point Vinyleather sofa. The President of the Republic was forced from office, and as a result . . . nothing happened . . . The tanks didn't roll, the junta delivered no communiqu'es from the Pentagon, the mobs didn't take over the streets, either before or after . . . . Instead, everyone sat back and watched the show on television and enjoyed it tremendously."

The same could be said for the Clinton Scandal. Talk shows flourished, as the sordid details were discussed, and everyone enjoyed it immensely.

Of course, depending on how much of the grid went down, would determine how much TV coverage we got.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), August 13, 1999.



Right on! Prayerful self-reliance and preparedness should be a lifestyle, not a momentary aberration do so a single potential disaster. Right now, on Kauai, we are in a stage 4 storm warning (hurricane 72 hours away). That one may not hit us, or even the storm just behind it. Another storm has (mostly) dissipated. But one or more of them will eventually make it through...just as unemployment, natural disaster, or similar problem will eventually hit most of us. Some of us more than once!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 14, 1999.

Big Dog

Research the Chinese thesis and new stance towards battling the US. It is called Unrestricted Warfare. In the Vain of The Art Of War by Sun Tzu. This new darivation of War is both effective and appropriate in a Global world and economy.

If you think Taiwan was the victim of an "accident" you wouldn't be far from the mark.

Still this doesn't diminish the President's obligation to serve an protect the country. (of course reader's the man is a liar.) So take it at face value and do what you can.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), August 14, 1999.


From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr near Monterey, California

I very much intend to never again be as profoundly full of dread as I was the moment that I realized the possibility for Y2K to have extreme impacts on my family's ability to survive. At that moment, I was already pretty far along the curve of self-sufficiency on some of the peripheral dimensions, such as: making home repairs and inventions, educating myself and my son, representing myself rather than relying on agents such as Realtors, lawyers and stock brokers... I merely hadn't realized our vulnerabilities with respect to the survival basics of water, sanitation, fuel, etc. I believe that is probably true of most of us, here. It's probably what allows us to accept this bad news without throwing up protective psychological barriers.

Yes, I do plan to continue to improve in self-sufficiency. I had, in fact, already planned to author a web site about generalized independence. That got immediately put on the back burner when Y2K reared its ugly head.

If Y2K is merely an inconvenience, I assume that continuing efforts at self-sufficiency will be characterized as being due to an inability to admit having been wrong. I don't see us as being an apocolyptic community in search of a disaster, though. There's a thin line between justified malaise and clinical depression.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage.neener.autospammers--regrets.greenspun), August 15, 1999.


Big Dog,

(Applause)Well said!

Being more self sufficient does not necessarily equal Luddism.

I was dragged, kicking and screaming into Y2K awareness, by my wife. I didn't even want to look at the data. I liked my life and wanted it to stay that way.

After the initial depression I suffered, I began to realize the potentials offered, for changing my life style. Come next year, if Y2K turns out to be a BITR, we will be debt free and living a lifestyle that leaves more money available for fun stuff. How much does it really contribute to your quality of life, to spend all your hard earned cash on food and utility bills? We've become wise shoppers and much more "solar-aware". We live in a neighborhood that has suffered mystery outages for decades, and we've had our share of mid-winter outages. Not much fun. We always put off thinking about disaster preparedness until the next mystery outage occured. The Y2K issue has sharpened our focus. Delving into the issue has had the ironic effect of reducing, not increasing our anxiety.

Of course, a lot of people will say that I'm a victim of the "Patty Hearst" syndrome; that I have been co-opted by my "captor". What (heavy sigh!) could I possibly say to convince you? Believe what you will, but I'm really kinda having fun, with all this.

-- Bokonon (bokonon@my-Deja.com), August 15, 1999.


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