U.S. Says Any China Move On Taiwan Would Be Grave

http://news.excite.com/news/r/990813/11/news-china-taiwan

Updated 11:39 AM ET August 13, 1999By Steve Holland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States said Friday that any military action by China against Taiwan would be of "grave concern" in the face of increasing Chinese threats to make an aggressive move against its cross-strait rival.

Chinese government officials were reported Friday to have warned President Clinton's administration that Beijing may be compelled to take military action against Taiwan to punish it for what China has construed as recent moves toward independence.

Wen Wei Po, a Beijing-funded Communist Party newspaper in Hong Kong, said the "military situation was a lot more serious than what the outside world was aware of." It said China's military had identified 200 key military targets on Taiwan. The Global Times tabloid in Beijing said a military conflict could erupt at any moment.

The Washington Post and the New York Times reported Chinese government officials have conveyed a threatening message to U.S. analysts and experts apparently to measure the likely response of the United States to some limited military action.

"Any effort to resolve the issues in the cross-straits by other than peaceful means would be of grave concern to the United States. That hasn't changed," said David Leavy, spokesman for the White House National Security Council.

Beijing has been outraged at the declaration last month by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui that relations between the two rivals should be "state-to-state." China took the words to mean Taiwan was thinking about independence. It considers Taiwan a renegade province bound some day to be reunited with the mainland.

China's rhetoric has become increasingly volatile since the Taiwanese declaration, and over the past 10 days military aircraft have been flying close to each other over the 100-mile (160-km) Taiwan Strait.

The Post said possible military steps included a blockade of some of the small Taiwan-controlled islands, a seizure of Taiwanese supply ships, a limited air clash or an incursion by Chinese fishing boats, submarines or naval vessels into Taiwanese waters.

"We have not received any specific threats or ultimatums from the Chinese," Leavy said.

Leavy said the United States had been cautioning both sides that the military flights carried the risk of an accident.

"We've made that clear," he said. "The best way to lower tensions and avoid accidents is to get back to the dialogue between the two sides." He declined to speculate on whether the United States was prepared to send naval vessels to the region as it did in 1996 when the Chinese fired missiles near Taiwan.

"We have important strategic interests in the cross-straits. We're watching it closely. We're certainly cognizant of the developments there. I think both sides recognize the dangers. We've made that clear to both sides. Our policy hasn't changed," he said.

A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "We've seen nothing extraordinary in terms of any military buildup" by the Chinese.

Clinton supports the "one China policy" in which the United States recognizes that mainland China and Taiwan are part of the same nation headed by communist Beijing.

At the same time, the United States has unofficial ties with Taipei, sells it defensive arms and has an ambiguous commitment to help defend against aggression.

The Post said Clinton administration officials and China experts believe it is unlikely that Beijing would launch military action before October because such a move would spoil a scheduled mid-September meeting between Clinton and Chinese President Jiang Zemin in New Zealand and the Oct. 1 celebration marking the 50th anniversary of the communist takeover in China.

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-- Forum regular (focus.on.the.world@t.rollover), August 13, 1999

Answers

tum tum tu tu tum tum rattatat rattatat

-- drumbeats (canu.he@rthe.drums), August 13, 1999.

Clinton administration officials and China experts believe it is unlikely that Beijing would launch military action before October because such a move would spoil a scheduled mid-September meeting between Clinton and Chinese President Jiang Zemin in New Zealand and the Oct. 1 celebration marking the 50th anniversary of the communist takeover in China

funny...I get the exact opposite feelings...what a better way to celebrate than snatch back a breakaway province?

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 13, 1999.

It would spoil a party?

That sounds like Clinton thinking, I dout the Chinese look at it quite tha way.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 13, 1999.

We will do nothing. Oh, maybe there will be some heart-felt hand-wringing (I feel your pain, No, really...) and "severe" (cosmetic) diplomatic reprisals-delay the arrival of the National Dance Company or something, but basically, I think it's already been decided-Taiwan is on it's own. Laws and treaties be damned.

For their sake, I hope the Taiwanese haven't been depending solely on our support.

-- Greg Lawrence (greg@speakeasy.org), August 13, 1999.

From the NY Times:

August 13, 1999

China and U.S. Are Reported to Trade Threats on Taiwan

By JANE PERLEZ

WASHINGTON -- Chinese government officials have warned the Clinton administration that Beijing may be compelled to take military action against Taiwan to "punish" Taiwan for what Beijing sees as moves toward independence, administration officials and China experts said Thursday.

In reply, Washington has warned the Beijing officials that action by the Chinese against Taiwan would bring retaliation by the United States, officials said. In the last week, the administration has also publicly and privately urged the two sides to resolve the situation between themselves. The message from the Chinese has not come from the very top of the government but from Chinese officials in meetings with administration officials. It was not clear, administration officials said, whether a firm decision had been made by Beijing what precise action would be taken.

If military action was taken it could range, they said, from striking at Taiwan to seizing an unpopulated island belonging to Taiwan.

Military action against Taiwan itself appeared to be the most unlikely course for Beijing, several administration officials said.

But an administration official said the military situation in the Taiwan Strait was "dangerous" and "very delicate." For more than a week military aircraft from China and Taiwan have been flying close to each other over the 100-mile-wide waterway, he said.

"The chances are very real for inadvertent things or something more ominous," the official said.

The United States was preparing for "contingencies" in the Taiwan Strait, another official said. But he declined to elaborate what those preparations were.

In 1996, the United States came to the closest to a military confrontation with China since the Eisenhower era after the Chinese fired a ballistic missile toward Taiwan and the Clinton administration moved two aircraft carriers into the area of the Taiwan Strait.

This time, the government in Beijing, whose top officials have just returned from an annual conference, appeared to be divided on how to respond to the statements by Taiwan in the last month. "The hardliners want to be tough, others are saying let's wait," an administration official said. He added that overall, China appeared to be "waiting to see if Taiwan could be put back into the box."

The charge d'affair at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Xiao- Min, was summoned to the office of assistant secretary of state for East Asia, Stanley Roth, last week.

In testimony the following day before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Roth said that the Chinese and the Taiwanese had been given six demarches by the United States urging them to restrain their military activities in the Taiwan Strait.

The Chinese government may also be sending their warnings about taking military action to test the United States, several China experts said. The government has used the South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong newspaper, to float stories about pending action. Thursday's edition of the paper said that 500,000 troops of the People's Liberation Army were being mobilized in a southern province.

But Pentagon officials have said in the last several days that they have seen no sign of such massive mobilization.

An effort to take a smaller island belonging to Taiwan would not need such a large mobilization, however.

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), August 13, 1999.

Let's get real.

The Chinese government will do whatever it wants to do so long as it won't lose out on incoming American dollars.

The day the dollar dies and Wall Street crashes will herald a new China policy.

You won't be amused...

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 14, 1999.

Our administration will do little more than fire off some verbal barbs if China decides to take back Taiwan. We're spread way too thin to even consider doing anything serious militarily. Hell, we don't even have a carrier group in the Pacific anymore.

Bill Clinton will do whatever his Chinese masters tell him to do, and we'll suffer in the process.

I also doubt that China has the capability to actually take Taiwan back anyways. Not much troop transport capability. It's possible that they could cause quite a ruckus with paratroops and smuggling in a couple of divisions in freighters though.

-- Bill (billclo@msgbox.com), August 15, 1999.