Satellite Glitch May Hit Yachts, Private Planes

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Satellite Glitch May Hit Yachts, Private Planes

Updated 12:21 PM ET August 12, 1999By Neil Winton

LONDON (Reuters) - If you are going anywhere remotely adventurous in your sailboat or private plane this month, be sure you dust off your old sextant and check the chart locker.

You could be in trouble if you have been relying on the ubiquitous hand-held satellite navigation device to plot an instant course to avoid dangerous rocks. Finding a tiny island over the horizon in your plane could also be risky.

At midnight on Aug. 21, the 24 satellites of the Global Positioning System, which provide navigational data from 11,000 miles out in space, switch their timing system back to zero.

When the GPS system started operating in January 1980 it was designed to record time for 1,024 weeks. Experts say that when the "rollover," or return to zero, happens, at 23:59:47 GMT Aug. 21, up to 1.5 million of the 10 to 15 million GPS navigational devices around the world may be unable to handle it and fail or start producing dangerously unreliable data.

The possible glitch promises to provide a dress rehearsal for the millennium computer bomb, set to explode inside an unknown number of computers at midnight on Dec. 31.

If Aug. 21 passes without serious incident, the next big technology test is less than three weeks away. Sept. 9, 1999, is recorded on some computer software as 9/9/99. But computer programmers often used a cluster of nines to signal to a program that it should switch off.

The U.S. Air Force set up the GPS to provide precise timing and navigation data for the military. Civilian users around the world have been making increasing use of the system, which provides at least four satellites for a receiver at any time anywhere on Earth and can pinpoint a location to within 100 yards on mobile phone-like receivers.

The receivers gauge location by measuring time it takes for a radio signal to travel from the satellites.

ROLLOVER COULD UPSET TRANSMISSION OF DATA

"If a GPS receiver has difficulty determining the correct date before, during and after this rollover, it may process data incorrectly. In fact users who depend on GPS data for geographic locations on land, at sea or in the air could face serious safety hazards," said John Lovell, Director of Quality at Trimble Navigation, a market leader in navigation devices.

It is not just leisure activities that are under threat. Businesses such as power and telephone utilities and even international banking use the GPS to establish accurate timing of some processes.

Experts say airlines and shipping companies are not in danger. They use more traditional methods for navigation and have cross-checking built into their processes.

Lovell, in a telephone interview from his office in Sunnyvale, California, said he is confident his company's devices will work during the changeover, but others' may not. Some depend on compatibility of software and work with embedded chips that will not be able to interpret data correctly.

"Some GPS receivers are hidden, embedded in a host of other products from car navigation to timing devices for electric and telephone utilities, vehicle and vessel tracking, surveying, environmental protection, agriculture, mining, construction and scientific research," he said.

"I'm concerned but pretty confident overall."

Experts say that in the field of navigation any GPS failure should not present a problem if sensible practices are used.

"A prudent mariner will not solely rely on GPS to determine his position. I would expect anyone operating a craft on the water to use all available means of determining where they are. The simplest form is to look, use your eyeballs, match what you see from what's on the charts," said Lt. Lee Putnam, public affairs officer at the U.S. Coast Guard navigation center in Alexandria, Virginia (www.navcen.uscg.mil).

Putnam said depending on one navigational method never made any sense. Mariners should use the range of aids available including radio, compass and dead reckoning.

UP TO 1.5 MILLION DEVICES IN JEOPARDY

Ron Stearns, defense and aerospace analyst at Frost & Sullivan, believes the risk to the traveling public is small but reckons that around 10 percent of GPS receivers are susceptible to "rollover" problems.

According to the U.S. government, there are between 10 and 15 million receivers in use worldwide.

"Boaters, private pilots and climbers all use GPS for navigation. Yes, if there is a problem with GPS rollover and any of these users is totally reliant upon GPS in a critical situation, then there is the possibility for a problem," Stearns said in an e-mail message from San Francisco.

Sensible users will not have a problem, though.

"There is a great deal of resistance to using GPS as a sole means of navigation. Experienced boaters, pilots and, I would assume, outdoor enthusiasts believe in several redundant forms of navigation, whether it be ground-based radar, a compass and paper map or a sextant," Stearns said.

Peter Dana, GPS expert at the University of Texas, said it was hard to see the problem causing accidents.

"Any sailor, pilot, climber, or hobbyist who relies on a single navigation aid has already made the fundamental mistake," he said in an e-mail. "That a few GPS receivers might not properly handle a change from 1,023 to 1,024 weeks should not be a problem. I hope that is the case during the transition from Aug. 21 to Aug. 22, 1999."

=========================================== End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 12, 1999

Answers

Phooy on your old GPS. Don't forget to recalibrate your compass when the earth's magnetic field shifts.

-- It's (All@Conspiracy.com), August 12, 1999.

Watch out for JIT system failures too - logistics companies use GPS a lot for tracking ....

-- Rob Somerville (merville@globalnet.co.uk), August 12, 1999.

I read today that there are only 30,000 sold before 1995 that will have trouble on the rollover.Sometime after 1994 they started rollover realiable ones. Thats a far cry from 1 to 1.5 million. and I think some of those might not even be in use or been replaced.

-- Rooster (Gotitlate@wow.com), August 12, 1999.

...but tracking is just tracking, isn't it Rob? GPS reset is a short-lived event. A container is not going to jump off a ship in transit just because a tracking signal is temporarily lost. Chances are it will still be on board when the ship docks or the plane lands or the truck pulls up to the loading dock. It will still be listed on the bill of lading or manifest.

"Watch out for JIT system failures too..."

I can't come up with any plausible "JIT system failures." But, you must have thought this through better than me or have more information than me to have made the statement. What scenario would cause a "JIT system failure?"

-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), August 12, 1999.


by the way it's 09/09/99 not 9/9/99 just an update.

-- Bob909 (Bob909@netscape.net), August 12, 1999.


I'll say it again; go look at this site, which was created by the Navy & Coast Guard as a public service:

http://www.navcen.uscg.mil/gps/geninfo/y2k/gpsmanufacturers/manufactur ers.html

It's a list of GPS receiver manufacturers. Look at it. Go to some of their sites and see what they say about their products and rollover.

Then think about how little has been said about GPS rollover, and how nearly all that HAS been said refers to recreational location devices.

Please!

-- Arewyn (isitthatlate@lready.com), August 13, 1999.


I read today that there are only 30,000 sold before 1995 that will have trouble on the rollover....

That's just for one manufacturer. There are a couple of hundred manufacturers world-wide.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 13, 1999.


12 August 1999

Global Positioning System Calendar to Be Reset August 21

(Older GPS receivers may need adjustment) (530)
By Karen Molchanow
USIA Staff Writer

http://www.usia.gov/cgi-bin/washfile/display.pl?p=/products/washfile/ latest&f=99081203.glt&t=/products/washfile/newsitem.shtml

[snip]

...The GPS problem differs from the Year 2000 problem, and occurs on a different schedule, because the GPS system runs on a different calendar, the government sources point out. The Department of Defense, which maintains the GPS system, says it has conducted extensive testing to ensure that the Year 2000 and the "End of Week rollover" problems will not affect the operation of GPS satellites themselves or the system's ground control center, located in Colorado.



-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 13, 1999.


I think I can make a meaningful contribution on the JIT question here. I drive for USA Truck running 48 and Canada, and all our loads are dispatched via qualcom onboard satelite communications. This system utilizes gps to track the trucks and moniter progress and mechanical status. Will this system continue to funtion after rollover? I just don't know. I have talked with my dispatcher on this subject and bottom line is she doesn't know either. If the system does fail or experience major glitches it will be a MAJOR cluster**** for our company and our competitors as well. Each dispatcher handles 30 plus trucks. They Are already on the verge of being overwhelmed at any given moment. If they have to use the telephone system to dispatch you can cut that number in half. On the other end the drivers are able to type in a request for directions or request next load info and keep going with the unload, driving or whatever until the information returns on the qualcom reciever. If the system fails that driver is tied stationary to a telephone, probably for hours until the information is available and relayed to him. Now imagine this scenario being played out with literally tens if not hundreds of thousands of trucks nationwide at the same time. The truckstops have only a limited number of parking spaces and phones available at the present time. We're talking major gridlock here. A dispatch- and- delivery that takes a day or two to complete now could easily double or triple in elapsed time and the entire system could simply be overwhelmed coming to an abrupt halt. And we haven't even gotten into fuel purchases and such using satelite communications and credit accounts. There is a real potential here for serious disruption to the trucking industry, and one way or the other we're going to find out in a short period of time.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), August 13, 1999.

Nikoli ~ The GPS part of the system only tracks the locationof a truck. The communications is through a different satellite link.

-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), August 13, 1999.


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