Stopped by my insurance agency today. While my agent (a young woman) filled out the various forms, I made small talk about doing something or other "if Y2K doesn't stop us all in our tracks". She stopped typing imediately, glanced at the boss's office, lowered her voice and said, "Oh I know. They promised us we would be O.K., and now they say we're going to get all new software."

I said, "Five months to go, and you're getting a new program?" She just nodded her head, and I swear she looked on the verge of tears. She has a seven year old daughter.

I also stopped by the feed store, and I noticed they finally got some diatomaceous earth. I mentioned it, and they didn't have a clue as to what to do with it. I started telling them about organic gardening, pest control in livestock, etc., with little interest on their part. But then I said, " Some folks are putting up grains and dry foods these days, and it's good for that as well." Immediately the two women who had been sitting at a desk behind the counter, having their own conversation, got up and came over to hear what I had to say.

My point is just this: A year ago, no one knew anything about Y2K. Six months ago, no one took it seriously. Three months ago, it was laughable, politically uncorrect. But today, I'm seeing an undercurrent of concern/fear that is only whispered about in public.

In my area, still absolutely NO news coverage, NO public meetings, NO civic or church mettings, NO preparation leadership or discussion of any kind. And NO obvious prepping by the general public. I think the news people are finding it so hard to report Y2K news, good aor bad, with a straight face, that they are just saying nothing. Perhaps they are as scared as everyone else.

But whether or not Y2K is the end or the world or just a bump, whether we should be frightened of it or not, it is a truism that people are frightened of the unknown. The underlying fears of a population kept in the dark may be the true time bomb of Y2K.

Lon Frank

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999

Answers

I said, "Five months to go, and you're getting a new program?" She just nodded her head, and I swear she looked on the verge of tears. She has a seven year old daughter.

Wow, I never knew that software could be that traumatic. Doesn't sound like this person ought to be holding any job of responsibility if she flies off the handle at every little thing. Companies get new software apps all the time, so what?

Undercurrent of fear only to be whispered about in public? Well in my experience everyone seems willinging to put in their "two cents" regarding the Y2K matter and I hardly detect anything other than mild anxiety. But then again I talk to IT professionals ,Programmers and Consultants and not flaky insurance agents... so that might be the difference.

-- (xyz@abc.123), August 12, 1999.

xyz,

Do you talk to any day traders?

Maybe she shouldn't hold a job of responsibility. For that fact, maybe neither should I, but it still doesn't matter. We're both just people, and like it or not, we as a species are afraid of the dark.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999.

xyz: If there is no problem, then why read this newsgroup? If I were that certain of my position, I'd be outside riding my bike in the sunshine or down at the local watering hole with all the other computer profesionals, talking shop. It sounds to me like somebody is "whistling past the graveyard".

-- Greg Lawrence (greg@speakeasy.org), August 12, 1999.

Thanks for the post Lon, here's what caught my eye:

"They promised us we would be O.K., and now they say we're going to get all new software."

I believe we will be hearing MANY comments like this in the near future.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 12, 1999.

Now, Greg, don't get started flaming xyz. He made an honest post of his opinion, and didn't call me any of the names my mother-in-law does.

However, I think he just missed my point of the thread. Whether or not Y2K is something to worry about, people ARE getting worried because they are still not, for the most part, hearing reliable news or advice. I don't know if the government even can educate the public now, but what we're getting is very little, and that alone is very dangerous.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999.

This message is a crock. "she looked on the verge of tears"?. WHY?.

And Feed store owners dont know what DE is for?. Only a y2k nut thinks DE is for feed protection. Farmers and feed store people use DE for slugs, roachers, ants, for decades now. People posting garbage "scare" messages to get the doomers frothing more.

-- Crap detector (crapdetector@watchingthestink.com), August 12, 1999.

OK, OK! Maybe she wasn't on the verge of tears, maybe she was just batting her eyelashes at me. She was a young woman, and I after all , am an agreeably handsome, if somewhat bald, scroungy and overweight, older gentleman. But she was definately concerned. And she definately wanted to talk about Y2K.

As for the feed store, I had asked them about DE six months ago, and they had never heard of it. I even went back with a print out about DE that I got from the other supplier I use. So, I'm sorry to break your crock, but, whatever.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999.

We enjoyed your post and opinion Lon. Thank you for expressing your experience and opinion. Ignore the DWIs.

-- Every Day (LurkingLongTime@123486.com), August 12, 1999.

Crap detector, you have obviously NEVER been down on the bayou. You might be surprised to find out what people do and do not know there! Besides, they wouldn't talk to you anyway. They would just stare! :-)

If I were the woman at the insurance company and had a daughter to take care of, I would be concerned about my job, too. I think one of the greatest impacts of Y2K will be economic. I expect unemployment to hit double digits early in the spring (if not sooner.) Many people are already being laid off in Houston.

Lon, your last paragraph was very thought provoking, and you are absolutely right! It's so much better just to tell people the truth. They can handle it better than the "government" thinks they can.

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), August 12, 1999.

Lon--I think your exaggerating about your physical appearance, I really do think she was dumb struck by your intellect and wisdom, women do like that in men--at least I do.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 12, 1999.

I consider myself to be a reasonably intelligent, reasonably insightful person; a bit of a tech head. I have a fascination with all manner of gadgets and can even maintain and repair quite a few of them. I've looked at a wide variety of material on Y2K. But I'm still at a loss to say exactly what will happen, come the new year.
Computer professionals of all types give opinions that are all over the place. Of course, each "side" (There is no "side". We are all on the "side" of keeping ourselves warm, clothed, fed, and happy) accuses the other of dangerous distortions, rumor mongering and outright lies. Who to believe? This is why the secretary, with the young daughter may have been close to tears. We could all be dead this time, next year, are we could all be saying what a grand new (almost) millenium it is.
Uncertainty is always very stressful. It's always more comforting to believe you know what will happen, even if what you know will happen, is that it's all going to hell. the certainty gives us a sense of direction. That's why you get Doomers and Pollies flaming each other. Each represents a threat to equilibrium, to the other. The whole thing can best be compared to weather forecasting. This is not done, contrary to a fairly wide spread opinion, by voodoo. No, really, I'm not kidding, here. It's a science that takes years of study. No tea leaves involved. Yet mention The Weather Channel, and nine out of ten people* will say, "Those morons don't know what they're talking about!". Weather forecasters are wrong, quite a lot of the time, because they are dealing with a complex system, or actually, set of systems. A complex system breeds complex results, and predicting those systems quite frequently makes fools out of the wise and knowledgeable. *Not a verifiable statistic, so don't ask for the link...

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 12, 1999.

Gayla, Thanks. I believe I've got the bleeding stoped now.

bardou - B b b but, just which part do you think I exagerated; the scruffy, fat and bald part, or the agreeably handsome part? I'll give you a hint. The neighborhood kids always want to "borrow" me for trick-or-treating.

But, seriously, we talk of "sheeple", and the "herd mentality", but you know, they're mostly just folks trying to get by. Trying to keep their jobs or do what's best for their kids. We on this forum are greatly advantaged in having the time and opportunity to learn about Y2K and the associated problems we may face. But what about that single parent, who's working everyday, getting the kids off to school, calling the plumber, and trying to get the brakes fixed on the car? Maybe they've heard a little about Y2K, and maybe they're acared without even knowing what they're scared of.

All I'm saying is my own observation that I am seeing more people who are concerned about Y2K, and are still clueless as to the true nature of the possibilites, or where to turn to for information. And fear, combined with a feeling of being disenfranchised, or left out of the loop, are key ingredients for panic.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999.

Bokonon: There's a 50-50 chance that something will or will not happen. Now if I were a gambling person and had the cards stacked in my favor, that is preparing for what may happen, then I would gamble on preparing. If nothing happens, I still come out a winner so what do you have to lose if your prepared?

Lon: Neither, I think smarts overrules looks.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 12, 1999.

Lon, You can't be bald. Only pollies are bald. I read it on this forum.

Today in the bank I was getting some money orders and told the teller, a young black woman, that I'm trying to prepay my bills for the end of the year. She gave me a knowing look. She said, "We were just talking about that..." We spoke a bit more and she said she is buying supplies. We agreed that "they" can't tell us the truth.

I think there is an undercurrent of fear and that Y2K is being spoken of only in whispers because it is not the consensus reality--yet. But people are starting to prep. Watch the shelves...

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

My 67 yr old mom told me tonight that she had started buying water. This is a BIG step for her. She thought I was off the deep end when I started talking up preparations last November. She was very recently DWGI, and still lives in Los Angeles. This tells me Joe Six Pack is not far behind.

-- mommacarestx (harringtondesignX@earthlink.net), August 12, 1999.

Bokonon... Your comparison of weather prediction and y2k prediction was on target. Both events are very complex to predict because of a lack of verifiable or changing data.That's perhaps the best analogy I've heard. It doesn't help me predict any better, but it makes me feel like I understand the dynamics a little better.

-- citizen (lost@sea.com), August 12, 1999.

Bokonon, (what does that mean BTW?)

I, too, liked your weather channel analogy. But perhaps, it makes my point better that I did. Even though people think "those morons" never get it right, we still tune in. Want to see a bunch of folks get antsy real quick? Just let a big cloud come up in the Texas panhandle, and take the weather forcasters off the air.

And Mara, I am SO relieved to hear that I am not bald after all. (Or, wait, can it mean that I have suppressed polly tendencies? Heaven forbid!)

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999.

I work in a grocery store. In the warehouse, is a huge amount of new computers. I suppose they are y2k "compliant". this is a huge chain.

-- ed (edrider007@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

Ed: Aren't you worried that they aren't installed yet? Are they for your store of for somone else?

Lon: My husband is bald and he's smart too!

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 12, 1999.

Funny you should mention that awareness is rising.

The guy that owns the house I live (seriously) asked me for the first time how bad I figure it would be where we live. He has known about it for 18 months and as he was taught cobol and fortran as well as basic in collage the problem was easy to understand. But he had no consept of the ripple effect and seriousness of the problem till now.

Accually his biggest fear would be a lack of Beer or a job. Both pretty important in my books to :o)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), August 12, 1999.

bardou, my dear, isn't that redundant? :)

ed, tell us more, please.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 12, 1999.

"As for the feed store, I had asked them about DE six months ago, and they had never heard of it. I even went back with a print out about DE that I got from the other supplier I use. So, I'm sorry to break your crock, but, whatever. "

You REALLY need to get to a new feed store! PRONTO! 1) I live in farming country, every feed store stocks DE and even those of us who do not get our hands dirty know about it.

2) *hum* a business who stocks a product they know *zero* about? Customer:Why should I buy this Feed Store:*shrug* well we rightly don't know Customer:SOLD! Load up my truck!

puh-lease

-- Country Boy (corn@feed.boy), August 13, 1999.

The site I work at is mostly "ready", but we are still awaiting fixes by some vendors. When we have done all that we can, we expect to still have some problems...

I am still concerned about long term viability, except I know how vital the services we provide is...

I know that there are those who are less prepared, and I really worry about them.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 13, 1999.

Lon,

Re: Bokonon. Ref: "Cat's Cradle" by Kurt Vonnegut (recently mentioned here). But, perhaps I ought to let Mr. B explain it to 'his' satisfaction.

Hallyx

"This is the way I think the world will end: with general giggling by all the witty heads, who think it is a joke."--- Kierkegaard

-- (Halyx@aol.com), August 13, 1999.

WHAT is the problem with the feed store incident? Oh. wait, I think Country Boy has the answer. Rather than think about the meaning of the thread, just pick out a detail, and call someone a liar, instead.

I LIKE IT! It can work on other things as well. It may be the solution to all our worries.

Maybe the other FOUR feed stores I go to in the area really have DE, they're just lying so I won't buy any.

Maybe the folks at the store yesterday really knew about DE all along. They were probably just lying to appear dumb. But, maybe they stocked it because I, and others had asked for it? Nah, I don't think so; they were just liars, like everyone else.

OH, wait. Maybe the insurance agent was really lying too. I get it; she wanted me to think they might have problems, so I would take my business elsewhere. (They were pretty busy) OR, maybe she didn't actually get any insurance for me after all. I think she really took my money to buy a plane ticket to Vegas for the big New Year's bash. Yeah, yeah, thats it. LIARS, liars, all of them.

Come to think of it, I don't know Ed Yourdon either. He must be a liar. (This is SO cool) And Halyx, and Big Dog, and Hardliner, and bardou, and, and, omigosh, everyone! Gayla, you're all LIARS, just LIARS.

So, see it can work. If we all just admit that we've been lying all along, we can forget Y2K and I get back to some serious fishing. Country Boy says he's gonna give up on Y2K come September 9th anyway, so let's just admit we've fabricated the whole thing right now, and he can get an early start.

Come on, CB, I'll hold the door open for you (so you won't get your hands dirty).

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 13, 1999.

Bokonon --

I think you said it: "The whole thing can best be compared to weather forecasting."

Many's the time I've gone out with an umbrella and not needed it. Many more the times I've forgotten it and wished I'd had it. (Some of us are more sensitive on the topside in this hatless age.)

Lon, your humor is contagious! Here in your company I feel like I'm joking around with my old high school buddies, the ones that made it possible to get through that three year waiting-to-escape without going crazy! The humor got very refined, very sharp, very revealing of all that was going on. You've got it, man!

(I'll even thank Country Boy for his tip about DE, if it's true. I'll just check the feed store down the street, instead of my wife calling that mail order place...)

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), August 13, 1999.

Bardou: I agree wholeheartedly and I can't stress that enough. Even though I think there's room for doubt, concerning the dire predictions for next year, there's enough of a chance that we are in for some major SHTF, that it's foolhearty not to make preparations.

Lon: The character of Bokonon knowingly invents a religion, because it brings hope to the impoverished people of a small carribean island nation. Even though it's a blatant fabrication, he also speaks the truth, without knowing it. The whole point of the book is that no one really knows what they're doing, and that's the way the world really ends...with a whole string of really stupid mistakes.
The title of the book comes from the string thingy people do (Or at least used to do) where they take a loop of string and criss-cross it into a bunch of X's. It's supposed to be a cat in a cradle, but as one character proclaims, in the book, "Parents shove this string with a bunch of X's into their kids faces and say, 'See the cat?, See the cradle?'. That's what's wrong with the world. No damn cat and no damn cradle!"

Hallyx: Thanks for the Kirkegarrd (spelling? I can never remember where those extra consonants go) quote. Hadn't heard that one, before.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

Bokonon: Of course it's foolhearty not to make any preparations, that's what worries me about my neighbors. When the time comes, I'm going to have to say to them "what part of the word NO don't you understand?"

Lon: Nothing is redundant anymore.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 13, 1999.

Bokonon, - Now, that's interesting. That's why I'm addicted to this forum. I gotta get the book. (and I was thinking of changing my handle to "the village idiot" - you put me to shame.)

jor-el (wasn't that Superman's cousin or something, I forget) - You are so lucky. When I went to high school, it was a four year wait.

And bardou, my friend. You were the very first to respond to one of my postings here, almost 18 months ago, remember? But I still disagree with you about turning away hungry neighbors in a survival scenario.

Here's a thought that's been stumbling around in my head lately: Consider compassion, charity, hospitality; all those ideals we recognise as being particularly "human". I know that they have been fostered and perpetuated by religion, by philosophers (and by grandmothers), but could it be that they came into being because they are the substance of survivial? I mean, could it be that we care about the wellfare of strangers because we have been genetically programmed through time? Is hospitality an unremembered dictum of our tribal mentality? Is the true basis of survival, of community, of continuation, that we are critically dependent one upon another?

Just a thought, Lon

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 13, 1999.

Lon, thanks for your personal viewpoint and experiences. Here's mine. My town has been talking Y2K for the last year or so. Just last week they interviewed the city who was doing a cutover for new software the next day.

Also you need to change your insurance company. Insurance companies do a TEN year look ahead. They "failed" back in 1990 and started fixing their systems back then. They are well aware of the Y2K problem and if they are as competitive as I think they are, then your company missed the boat in a big way. Or on the other hand, your agent doesn't have a clue.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), August 13, 1999.

Maria, thanks for your post.

But again, your perspective here is different than mine. My insurance agency (an independent) and it's future, does not really matter in this discussion. I just used that as an example to state that even nild references to Y2K in informal conversations are getting serious replies, and that wasn't happening to me six months ago. And maybe the agent didn't have a clue, but that's just the point I'm making. Clueless and scared is a lot more volatile than informed and scared (or informed and not acared, as the case may be)

I am certainly glad your town is at least talking about Y2K. I would feel considerably better if mine was.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 13, 1999.

Lon,
I highly recommend the book. Even though it's an end-of-the-world novel, it's also howlingly funny, in a dark sort of way. I don't know about everybody else, but I know I need a good dose of comedy along with the doom and gloom to keep from going crazy. It keeps me mentally healthy (or at least as mentally healthy as I ever was).

On the humanity and hospitality issue. I agree with you.
In the short run, the "bunker" mentality makes sense. Some people will get pretty whacked out, if the SHTF. It's prudent to be pretty cautious about who you trust, until you've taken a good look at who's got a relatively level head, and who's spending their nights howling at the moon.
In the long run, however, there will be a world to be rebuilt and it won't get done if we all sit shivering in our houses, with itchy fingers poised on the trigger, forever.

I can't resist tking a shot, here, at some of the GTA's (Gun Toting Apocalyptarians)on the board. They seem to mostly come from a fairly ultra-conservative political view point. Haven't they gotten a lot of mileage out of slamming liberal Baby Boomers for being too self-centered? What could possibly be more self-centered than killing someone, who comes to you for aid?But then, I have a strong bias. I like people and I like them best when they are alive. The dead ones make such lousy conversationalists...

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

there....bold off

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

Now, hold on there, Bokonon.

You're beginning to dig a hole in awfully sandy soil - be carefull of the edge you stand on! I could be put into each of the boxes you listed above, but I don't consider myself a member of any one of them.

I know we each are passionate about something, but putting lables on people only hinders the flow of opinion which we are here for afterall. Next thing you know we'll get someone taking shots at old, bald, scruffy environmentalists, who don't know perrier from potty- water.

Sorry if this sounded condesending, I fully realize it is not my place to tell anyone how to think nor what to post. But I have found that the members of this forum absolutely defy categorization. We are old, young, formally-educated, self-educated, American, non-American, (anti-American?), believers, nonbelievers, ...well, you get my point.

After all, we are all crazy except for you and I. And I'm not so sure about you. :)

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 13, 1999.

You are essentially right, Lon, but as I said, I just couldn't resist. My slamming of GTA's won't make them any less likely to kill someone, and angry posts just scare more even-tempered people away, but when I read those Be prepared to kill, if you want to survive Y2K posts, something just takes ahold of me....

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

My own momma isn't too sure, about me....

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

Bokonon, LOL.

I know, we've had some threads that were uncalled-for, and seemed based on anger alone. But Y2K is putting a level of stress on us all, and some of us simply don't think all that clearly under stress.

A couple of weeks ago, I started a thread, "Let's move on, your opinion please". It wwnt on for three continuations, and was a good discussion of post-Y2K situations. In the telling, it helped me to more fully define my own feelings. It's an interesting thing when we expose our ideas in writing. I find that quite often, I'm the one who most needs to listen to them.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 13, 1999.

Amen.

I can't tell you (well I could, but why embarrass myself) the number of times I've posted things and then said reread it and said, "You know, that wasn't what I meant to say, at all", or "That came out a lot more hostile, than I intended."

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), August 13, 1999.

Easy now, I WORK at an insurance agency......Perhaps her eyes WERE filled with tears...of JOY that you are one of the few who choose to pay their premiums on time....I am just teasing.....But, she could have been thinking how crazy we all must be as y2k has pretty much been excluded on most policies as I predicted it would a VERY long time ago. I had stated on another thread how a woman who worked for our city computer fixer lady, I'll call her that stated we arent in good shape at all. She has to be to work at 11:00 p.m. NYE per ordered by higher ups, they also have hired security to protect them, installed portable toilets and ordered food. For insurance agencies, the biggies are the ones who all use computers for everything, many companies now will no longer accept paperwork, you must download all new policies, endorsement, so forth thru a computer. With this in mind, I dont believe my job will be in place. The only good thing is the old mom and pop agencies who still keep paper files. There are many who do not. Sorry our system is down, ring a bell???????

-- consumer (private@aol.com), August 14, 1999.

Consumer, what you said is SO true! A man hit my son's truck a little over 2 months ago. The man had just purchased insurance from Allstate 4 days before that. (Thank God he at least HAD insurance!) Anyway, the adjuster who was assigned the case couldn't do ANYTHING until the man's information was loaded into the computer and she had a printout. It took a week just to get the information into the computer!

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), August 14, 1999.

OT fancy water tip for Lon,

EVIAN spelled backwards is NAIVE.

Coincidence or Conspiracy?

-- flora (***@__._), August 14, 1999.