Check it out at still not spinning

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), August 10, 1999

Answers

Sorry about the simulpost.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), August 10, 1999.

Despite some grumbling that Yardeni isn't doomer enough from a few pwoplw, I find his steadfastness amazing.

Heres a summary for those whose computers don't like the PDF link above:

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Y2K still likely to spark recession: forecaster Updated 3:55 PM ET August 10, 1999 By Jim Wolf WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite progress fixing the Y2K computer glitch, there is still a 70 percent chance that it will spark a global recession, Edward Yardeni, a top U.S. economic forecaster, said Tuesday.

"Indeed, Y2K could cause another energy crisis," Yardeni, chief economist at the investment bank Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in New York, said in an update of his famously gloomy Y2K predictions.

Yardeni said the other most likely cause of a Y2K-related recession were possible breakdowns in the "global just-in-time manufacturing system" because of weak links in the supply chain.

"I am truly amazed by the complacency about Y2K given the lack of good data," he added in a report posted on his Web site, www.yardeni.com.

Yardeni acknowledged that he was alone among noted economists and Wall Street investment strategists to forecast a Y2K-related recession.

Two years ago, when he started to research the software problem's disruptive potential, Yardeni concluded that there was a 30 percent chance of its causing a global downturn.

About a year ago, he raised the odds to 70 percent, adding that he might scale back his forecast if developments warranted.

"I remain at 70 percent," he said in the survey posted Tuesday. He said he was heartened by upbeat progress reports but concerned that most were not independently verified.

"Even more worrisome is the lack of any good information on preparations around the world," Yardeni said. "Like everyone else, I am hoping for the best. But I think it is a big mistake to plan for the best, rather than for plausible worst-case Y2K scenarios."

He said the most serious Y2K problems were likely to occur in industries that have long and complex global supply chains, lots of suppliers and are heavily dependent on information technology systems.

"This certainly describes the oil industry," said Yardeni, who has compared possible Y2K fallout to the recession that followed the 1973- 1974 oil supply cutbacks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The so-called Y2K glitch could cause computers to misread the year 2000 and potentially cause wide-ranging systems failures.

Bruce McConnell, director of the United Nations-backed International Y2K Cooperation Center, a kind of clearinghouse for Y2K data, urged governments Tuesday to disclose more about system readiness and about contingency plans for systems that have not yet been upgraded.

"In the absence of information, markets will assume the worst," he said in an interview with Reuters in his Washington office. "We don't know whether this is going to be a 1 on the Richter scale or a 7."

John Koskinen, chair of President Clinton's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said Thursday that he was increasingly confident that basic U.S. infrastructure -- notably telephones, power and aviation -- would handle the date change without significant disruptions.

But Koskinen, in the third of four scheduled quarterly reports, said it was still "difficult to gather reliable data about other countries' progress."

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 10, 1999.

"Many DGIs believe that everything will be fixed in time because the consequences of failure are obviously so grim. They have to be naive optimists, in my opinion. I am an optimist at heart too: Unlike Bob, I had a happy childhood. However, I think I am a realistic pessimist and alarmist about the Year 2000 Problem. I am certainly not a doomsayer about Y2k. I'm not predicting Dooms Day, just a wicked global recession and a 30% drop in stock prices. Then there will be a great economic recovery starting in 2001, and the Dow Jones Industrials should be at a record 15000 by 2005." Dr. Ed Yadeni, November 16, 1998 "Commentary: Edward Yardeni on Alarmists vs. Doomsayers

-- archive buff (archivebuff@archivebuff.com), August 10, 1999.

Yardeni is no DGI weenie!

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 10, 1999.

Yardeni predicts a five percent chance of depression. No definitive word on "the end of the world" although he has joked about it. It is safe to say meltdown is a subset of the five percent chance. The way Yardeni sees it, it's a 95 percent chance we slide through Y2K taking moderate economic lumps.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), August 10, 1999.

Koskinen: John Koskinen, chair of President Clinton's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said Thursday that he was increasingly confident that basic U.S. infrastructure -- notably telephones, power and aviation -- would handle the date change without significant disruptions.

Telephones, power and aviation huh? Uh... what about banks? Or did he just pick the ones in most need of some feel good PR spin? Go! Fight! Win! J.K. our Y2K chearleader. Rah, rah, RAH!

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), August 10, 1999.

Mr. Decker, while I am definitely not a Doomer *or* a Polly (I challenge anyone to figure out where I stand), your consistent ability to twist any data to fit your preconceived notion of the truth is an amazing talent... read Yardeni's report and see if you can figure out where he stands...

Regards,
Scott Johnson
Editor,
y2ktoday

-- Scott Johnson (scojo@yahoo.com), August 11, 1999.