Yardini

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on CNBC at 3:20 PM Thursday.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), August 05, 1999

Answers

Yardeni-sorry

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), August 05, 1999.

He didn't really say squat ( I caugth the last 2 mins or so)... blew over his "70%" recession position???

Does he have the deJager sickness???!?!?

"Elec/Phone/IRS..should be ok....I don't see the major disruption I looked for before..." WTF is this....

Were the first 2 mins better??

I live on North/Yardeni/Yourdon......I'm middle to bad in my views 6- 9 anyway...

What happened.....I wonder what Yourdon is thinking now?

ED WE MISS YOU....GIVE US A SIGN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jim

-- Jim (a_234@hotmail.com), August 05, 1999.


Mike,

Thanks for that heads up on the Yardeni spot. Caught it just in time! True, he is saying that he now expects Electric, Telephone, IRS, FAA, all to pull through *here* in the US. However, he is still looking for a big stock market correction in the Sept-Oct period and for Govt bonds to outperform stocks for the next year. And, he still predicts a recession next year based on the international Y2k problems hitting us on our supply side picture. So, he hasn't totally backed off, yet I do wonder why he thinks telecoms, IRS, and FAA are going to be OK.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 05, 1999.


Could it be perhaps that he has done his research and come up with the conclusion that "he now expects Electric, Telephone, IRS, FAA, all to pull through *here* in the US"!!

Nah....can't be, that would be good news.....

The only reasonable alternative is that he is a secret shill planted by the powers that be, who has been instructed to deliberately mislead the people in order to prepare the way for martial law and the eventually imprisonment of all free thinking Americans......It's gotta be that right guys!!

Just like De Jager who used to be worshipped, he has gone to the dark side.......the force is powerful.........

Keep the faith my friends.....Y2K will kill us all, and we will fight to the death to ensure that it will kill us all...........

Down with the pollies, down with De Jager, down with Yardeni, up with Ebola, up with black helicopters, up with white vehicles, up with nasty evil earth-bound asteroids and up with gray aliens that want to stick their probes up our anuses!!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), August 05, 1999.


Mike,

Thanks for the post.

Sorry some shmuck had to rain on the parade. (What you afraid of? Mortality? Like the rest of us?)

Craig,

I don't want YOUR wife to come crying on MY doorstep, cause you were too CHEAP to buy a few hundred thousand $ in life insurance!

Hmm. Making any more sense to you pollies out there?

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), August 05, 1999.



On a side note, I heard the exact same kind of predictions at my office today. USA looking good, but India is the main concern for Y2K related failures. Why? hard to tell but they ARE exporting hordes of programmers to fix Y2K bugs within the US. Maybe they don't have enough workers to fix their own problems now or maybe they were always in a bad situation. But anyway, sort of backs up what Yardeni is saying from a small business perspective.

-- (just@a.civillian), August 05, 1999.

I am preparing for y2k to be at least an 8 and sometimes I get the feeling that nothing is going to really happen. It just can't. It is impossible for everything to just stop. Not be able to get up and go to work? Not be able to fulsh the toliet? Neighbors killing for food? It all sounds so sci-fi. Yet, I am still preparing. I think Mr. Yardini is having a hard time coming to grips with just what might happen. The closer the time, the harder it is to think about. If I had just discovered the y2k problem, and it being this close to happening, I don't think I could accept it. I would laugh about it right along with the rest of the DGI crowd.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), August 05, 1999.

I am preparing for y2k to be at least an 8 and sometimes I get the feeling that nothing is going to really happen. It just can't. It is impossible for everything to just stop. Not be able to get up and go to work? Not be able to fulsh the toliet? Neighbors killing for food? It all sounds so sci-fi. Yet, I am still preparing. I think Mr. Yardini is having a hard time coming to grips with just what might happen. To go on national television and declare the end of the society as we know it would be too much for any one person to handle. The closer the time, the harder it is to think about. If I had just discovered the y2k problem, and it being this close to happening, I don't think I could accept it. I would laugh about it right along with the rest of the DGI crowd. I feel like two different persons, one who is preparing for the worse and one who is laughing at how silly I am for doing so.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), August 05, 1999.

Don't know how my posts got all mixed up. dodododododododdodo

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), August 05, 1999.

Since we import practically everything we purchase, why worry if the other countries aren't Y2K ready? It won't impact us one bit will it? Now isn't that good news? I'm so happy the electric utilities, telephones, IRS, FAA, financial institutions, and all the other service industries in this country are Y2K ready! Who needs foreign auto parts, Nike tennis shoes, Liz Claiborne clothing, camping goods, oil, year-round fruits and vegetables. We can all very well live without these things now can't we? As long as we have jobs here, the lights are on, and I can talk on the phone and pay my taxes, I don't care one bit if other countries aren't ready. I'm sure glad I can have a peaceful nights sleep tonight!

-- tongueincheek (tongueincheek@tongueincheek.com), August 05, 1999.


tongue:

That is kind of comical. I especially enjoyed the assumption that if a "country isn't ready" (whatever that means), there will be no way to import any products at all from them. Of course, the company I work for has plants in 27 different countries, and all of them are thoroughly remediated and tested. Most of these countries won't be ready. So what?

I always enjoy the notion that coffee beans won't be grown by the noncompliant trees, nor be transportable by noncompliant burro, since both are in a noncompliant country. Maybe they'll suffer embedded muscle cramps? Time will tell.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 05, 1999.


I was a little surprised at his belief that the FAA and the IRS would be OK, but his statement on the global situation was very strong. Nor is he backing away from his position on a 75% chance of a severe recession.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), August 05, 1999.

The market is over valued and is due for a correction Y2K or no Y2K. There will probably be a recession even if Y2K is a big dud. The question is when (October 1999 or sometime in 2000?), how deep, and for how long?

-- Mr. Money (money@mo.com), August 05, 1999.

Folks, folks, .........Ed Yardeni is a Wall Street Lackey plain and simple. He is paid to SPIN the happy face news for Wall Street.

You will Never hear him utter the term "Bear Market" until AFTER the fact. Please DO NOT lend any credibility to what he says, he has a VESTED INTEREST !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 05, 1999.


Ray:

You're not clear. Are you saying Yardeni is the only economist "they" got to, which is why he's the only one who sees problems? Or are you saying that "they" have gotten to *all* the economists, but "they" shortchanged Yardeni, so he's getting back at "them" by being half- honest?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 05, 1999.



Flint, in the simplest terms possible for you to understand. Have you ever watched the SHILLS on CNBC, be they economists analysts commentators or what have you telling folks why stocks and bonds are the only investment to have. It does not matter if interest rates are going down or going up they ALWAYS have a reason to buy stocks.

The Wall Street "POWERS" don't have to get to anyone. They pay their salaries and they do what their told. Ed Yardeni is no different than the rest of the herd on Wall Street. He talks about a correction but will never utter the words "BEAR MARKET". If you listen to him long enough one will go away thinking about the same as after having read one of your posts.

PLEASE understand this, these folks ALL have a VESTED INTEREST in seeing to it the bubble NEVER bursts.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 05, 1999.


Let's see here.........who do we believe, who has more credibility:

Ed Yardeni or Ray.......hmmmmmmm.........toss up......tough one........hmmmmmm......respected economist or funny feller from the cheap seats......hmmmmmmmmm

Nah, gotta go with Ed! Sorry pal...........

At least Ed can write intelligently about the issues as opposed to Ray's two sentence jabs he has become famous for.......kind of a Muppet clone of Waldorf (one of the old men who shout out stupid wisecracks from the peanut gallery).

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), August 05, 1999.


Holy Cow, the paid/unpaid TROLLS really get upset when you start talking about one of their favorite SHILLS.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 05, 1999.


Doomers are really panicking now. Nobody believes what they believe. "It can't be a 2 or 3 or 4, its got to be a 8, 9 or 10." But nobody believes them and they are terrified of something but cant figure out what it is. Doomers, take the rest of August off. See if you dont relax a bit. You DO NOT have to prep every day and search for more stuff to scare the crap out of you.

-- Easy (easy@hard.com), August 05, 1999.

Speaking as someone who can think for myself (unlike Craig who needs to betold what to think) I'll side with Ray every time on matters of the economy and Wall Street. And taliking about muppets you see them all day and every day on the financial shows and segments - liars one and all...

Some of you guys are so NAIEVE it's not even funny anymore.

Sheesh!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 05, 1999.


Easy has it right on! It's true Easy, the Doomers are panicking now! Ed Yourdon can't make any more money off of being a doomer, now he's become a recovering doomer, he's writing a book about AFTER Y2K. Doesn't matter what the outome of Y2K is now, he's got 5 months to write and sell his new book and he's asking for everyone's help in writing it! There's no end to what some people wouldn't do to scare the public and make a buck.

-- freetospeak (freetospeak@freetospeak.com), August 06, 1999.

OK, so maybe it's only going to be a "4" or a "5", not "BITR" OR "TEOTWAWKI".

Prep STILL makes sense, unless you like standing in long lines to finally get that food, water, gasoline, etc.

AND you have to wonder if it won't be CHEAPER to burn firewood, petromax lantern, Coleman stove, etc. than to use traditional utilities if supply lines are delayed.

-- greg (balzer@lanset.com), August 06, 1999.


Uh, Flint. "transportable by noncompliant burro." From Columbia?

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), August 06, 1999.

Yep.

Ol' Ray knows his poop. Much better than this Yardeni character.

Just ask'em, he'll tell ya!!

Good one Ray.........

Ray?? Which one of the scare mongers do you work for??

Best laugh in a long, long time......

Here we had a Wall Street expert all along and didn't even know it!!

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), August 06, 1999.


Don't believe Ray or Yardeni - there's no such thing as a "Wall Street expert." Stock market is almost as hard to predict as Y2K - too many variables. You'd have as much luck throwing at a dart board as listening to one of the "experts."

If Y2K is a 2,3,4 it will still be regarded as "severe," because it is going to be much worse that the general population's expectations. If there are minor disruptions, the panic will ensue and probably exacerbate the situation to a 4,5,6.

Just my thoughts .....

-- Jim (x@x.x), August 06, 1999.


Jim, best ADVICE I've read so far !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 06, 1999.


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