Experts' August Ratings - 1 to 10 Scale

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

The following ratings for August are posted on Russ Kelly's page:

http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html

Joe Boivin 10.0, Karl Feilder 8.0, Mark Fraustchi 6.8, Dr. Reynolds Griffith 7.2, Russ Kelly 9.1, Roleigh Martin 5.5 - 9.0, Dr. Scott Olmstead 8.0, Harlan Smith 7.0, Timothy J. Wilbur 9.5, Ed Yourdon 7.0-9.0, and Dr. North 10.0 (his never changes). There are new statements from some of them that are very interesting.

-- Nadine Zint (nadine@hillsboro.net), August 03, 1999

Answers

Just wondering why there aren't any female "Y2k experts". Maybe Y2k is just a "guy" thing.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 03, 1999.

R,

Lest we forget Paula Gordon!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 03, 1999.


"Dr" North, that's a good one, LOLOLOL!!!

So if you had a problem with your heart would you go to a pediatrician? No... So why would you go to a Doctor of History to solve your computer problems?

Maybe because, your a sensless, mindless DOOMER CULT FREAK!!

-- (downloading@boboli-workers.jpg), August 03, 1999.


So if you had a problem with your heart would you go to a pediatrician? No... So why would you go to a Doctor of History to solve your computer problems?

Maybe because, your a sensless, mindless DOOMER CULT FREAK!!

Maybe so, but what about all of the OTHERS who are "experts" in this field?

-- John Beck (eurisko111@aol.com), August 03, 1999.


Nadine -

You left some out of the picture here.

I included the ENTIRE list of Russ Kelly's Y2K "Experts" and their ratings. I also added something to this that is rather curious. The "$" sign in front of each name indicates those who make a substantial amount of their income or profit from the Y2K Arena (books, speaking, food preps etc). Notice how those who stand to make a profit from this rate the problem as being far more severe. I wonder why that is.

$ Dave Bettinger 7.5

$ Joe Boivin 10.0

Dr. Douglass Carmichael 6.0

$ Dennis Elenburg 7.1

$ Thierry Falissard 8.5

$ Karl Feilder 8.0

$ Dr. Mark Frautschi 6.8

$ Dr. Paula Gordon 4.0 to 9.5

$ Dr. Reynolds Griffith 7.2

$ Cory K. Hamasaki 7.0

$ Russ Kelly 9.1

$ Roleigh Martin 5.5 to 9.0

Michael Maynard 3.0

$ Dr. Gary North 10.0

$ Dr. Scott Olmsted 8.0

Charles Reuben 1.0 to 1.5

Alan Simpson 4.0

$ Harlan Smith 7.0

$ Timothy J Wilbur 9.5

$ Ed Yourdon 7.0 to 9.0

Nicholas Zvegintzov 0.5

Yours in COBOL... Dino!

-- (COBOL_Dinosaur@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.



Dr. downloading - unlike your good self Dr. North has played a major role in saving lives - by getting people to comprehensively prepare and THINK about what may happen (I know *thinking* must be a strange concept for you), he hastaken those folks "off the grid" - thereby in a miniscule way alleviating FEMA from more mouths to feed...

I do find it pretty worrying that the general prognosis of all these experts seems to be about an 8 or so. And I've also noticed that it has been creeping up over the last year or so as it is dawning on some of them that time has almost run out and the expected progress has not materialised.

In anyones's book this points to a CATASTROPHE at rollover...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 03, 1999.


Kelly's notion of "expert" leaves something to be desired. Note the inclusion of Charles Reuben (CPR), who is known primarily for his incoherent rantings on the "Bonkers Board". If he's an expert on anything other than (possibly) selling commercial real-estate, then I'm Marie of Roumania.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), August 03, 1999.

I didn't leave out anything! All I did was quote the AUGUST ratings. Some are not in yet; and the ones that are remain the same or have gotten worse. Are you absolutely certain that Joe Boivin has anything to sell. It was my impression that he left a lucrative position to form a non-profit organization but I may be mistaken - I often am.

-- Nadine Zint (nadine@hillsboro.net), August 03, 1999.

Nadine -

The Church you go to is a Non Profit Organization - Your minister enjoys a salary which is drawn from the proceeds of that NPO. Your minister would not do well in the God business if he started preaching for the devil now would he?

To the other people and Andy, it is Russ Kelly's list of experts not mine. If you have a problem with one person's name on the list, then maybe you need to challenge all of the names on the list.

Gotta beef? Take it up with Russ Kelly. I am sure there are more than a few who will be looking for him too come the end of January.

Yours in COBOL... Dino!

-- (COBOL_Dinosaur@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


I remember feeling really confused, and as a result rather upset, about the happy-face media reports that proliferated last spring. As I recall, there was substantial talk on the forum at that time as to whether perhaps things really were much better and perhaps we could lay off our preparations somewhat. But was there really a basis for that conclusion?

Clearly Russ Kelly's survey is not based on a random sample, so the group average doesn't mean much to me. To me, the real value of the survey is how the participants have changed over time. I realized about May or June that the survey participants had not been swayed much at all by the feel good press.

If you look at the first and last survey for each, my take of the 21 is that 9 have pretty much retained their original range, 5 are down somewhat, 5 are up somewhat, and only CPR and Simpson are notably changed (both down). (CPR managed to go from a 8.0 to a 1.0-1.5 during that time.)

I think many share my view that far more progress has been made than seemed possible 6 to 12 months ago. I don't see that apparent good reflected in the survey. It keeps me centered on completing my preparations for whatever lies ahead.

Wondering if anyone else has ever examined the survey from this angle?

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), August 03, 1999.



Brooks, thanks for your input. Here is another tidbit, Ed Yourdon had been absent for three months. He just came back with his 7.0 to 9.0 scenario. Doesn't appear that he has been swayed much by the SPIN!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 03, 1999.


The best bet I would ever make in my life would be to find someone that would give me 1 1/2 odds that it will not be an 8-10. I don't know nothin. But I know a good bet when I am looking at one.

Because the track is dry and the crowd is cheering dosen't mean that they have the winner, only fear of not having the winner.

A 10-because I can read and think and see the fear in the eyes of those that are hoping for a bump.

Thanks for all your postings. I enjoy them all.

Lon

-- Lon (Lon1937@aol.com), August 03, 1999.


Too many people believe that any involvement with money automatically corrupts the person and the opinion they have. When your doctor says "You need this operation or you will die" it does not automatically mean that it was said only for the doctor's fee. Are there corrupt people? Yes. Is it within reasonable probability that every person on this list with the $ sign is corrupt and only saying these things for a profit?The desire of some to smear the entire lot with this line of thought speaks volumes IMHO.

-- smfdoc (smfdoc@aol.com), August 03, 1999.

Dr. Carmichael was on a talk show Sunday talking about Y2K. I would put a dollar sign in front of his name, I am sure he didn't go there for free.

-- observer (observer###@observer###.com), August 03, 1999.

COBOL,

I have never considered the argument about Y2K experts making money from Y2K to be very valid.

If I want to purchase a book about, for example, baking, I am pretty much wasting my money if I bought a book or video or vist a web site about baking written by an auto mechanic. He or she may make excellant chicken soup, but their advise may not be worth the time for their bread receipts.

By the same token, if they wrote a book about auto tune up, would we expect them to give it away?

Mr. Download and I at least agree on that, take your car to a mechanic for advice, and get your Y2K news from someone working in or at least doing serious study of the computer situation (such as North or cpr for the sake of balance...real estate, history, how can you discredit one without discrediting the other? or accepting one without excepting the other?).

My dad was a minister for a little country church, $25.00 a week; and I know he earned every dime of it with the phone calls in the middle of the night, couseling every family feud that came up, busing kids to softball games and museum trips. Of course only the bookkeeper knew ever dime of the check went directly back to the "till" and then some. :-)

When we use blanket examples for specific situations, we must always be open to accept the exceptions, where ever our personal opinion falls.

Russ Kelly's page is one among many sources for Y2K information, I think that is the angle I look at it from. It's up to each individual to determine for themselves which opinions seem most likely to themselves.

Thanks Nadine, I had forgotten to check Kelly's site lately...about due for a dose of "the hamster dance". :-)

Keep listening and keep preparing....

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.



Lily -

I never said or meant that ministers don't earn their salary. Being a Christian, the first thing I think of when I here Non Profit Organization is my Church. All I was trying to point out here is this:

It matters not of their organizations are NPO. If these people make a substantial portion of their income off of Y2K, they have little to gain by saying Y2K is going to be a 1 or 2. Face facts. Good news does NOT sell newspapers. Bad news, on the other hand, sells not only newspapers, but Books and beans and generators and and and......

Russ Kelly and many of the "Experts" on his list make their living (or a substantial portion" by going on tour with their dog-and-pony shows. They wail about how there is so little time and not enough programmers and how 1% of the un-remediated systems will systemically attack (see Gary North) the remediated systems and cause them to fail. This is nonsense in the highest degree! But it **DOES** sell books and newsletters and generators and beans and and and.......

Like I have said before, I am NOT a Polly, but then too I am not a Doomer. I work in the Information Technology industry as I have for almost 30 years now. I am, by trade, a Computer Consultant with the Title of Financial Systems Analyst. I design enterprise systems (those computer systems that companies use to do their daily business). I also function as a Project Leader on projects dealing directly with the remediation of Y2K issues. I also take my turn in the trenches with the code itself. For my Church, I am the Chairman of the Y2K Taskforce which is to prepare policy in regard to the effects of Y2K not only on our congregation but on the missionaries that we currently have in 15 different countries (most of which are 3rd world countries).

I am no stranger to this - but then neither are many others. What I leave here with you is my opinion. We all have them and are all entitled to them. Our opinions can be based on gut instinct or on hard facts. What many of these "Experts" base their predictions on is their GUT. Few of them have any current ties to the I.T. industry in regard to Financial Systems or Y2K. Many of them spout knowledge of things that they themselves have either never seen, or have not seen in many years (Yourdon, Hamasaki, North, Kelly). I have a difficult time dealing with "Experts" that should be called "EX-experts" or "Never-an-Expert".

Yours in COBOL... Dino!

-- (COBOL_Dinosaur@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


COBOL ---- Thanks for the list. Whether they make money or not is not the issue. There are 21 names on COBOL's list, 19 had it a "5" or better. Doesn't this tell us something?

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), August 03, 1999.

The individual statements from those participating in Russ Kelley's poll are just as interesting as the final numbers given. The statements show the reasoning each participant used to come up with a final number. Read the individial statements and see the reasoning behind the numbers:

http://www.russkelly.com/statements.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 03, 1999.


Here is what Russ Kelly himself has to say:

Russ Kelly

(August 1999) "I hate going above a 9.0 in my ranking--it seems so depressing. But during the past thirty days it seems we are making backward progress. We are in 'the great denial' stage as everyone enjoys their vacation and the media sleeps on this important issue. The lack of information, awareness and concern results in little efforts by local municipalities, small businesses, and even national agencies--in the U.S. and abroad. The electric power generation and distribution utilities have done an inadequate job in the assessment phase and in actual testing. It appears to be more of a 'fix on failure' strategy than a true remediation effort, and this is likely to result in erratic electric power service for the first quarter of 2000. I'm hopeful the failures are not catastrophic on the order of 3 Mile Island or Chernobyl, and few are expecting catastrophic failure."

"Local agencies appear to be totally unprepared on infrastructure issues. Testing failure after testing failure during the past 30 days prove the vulnerability within water and waste treatment facilities, yet it appears that many, if not most municipalities and other local government agencies, have delegated Y2K remediation efforts to an employee with little or no experience or interest in the subject, and on a part time basis. I have observed time after time statements to the effect 'we're ready for 2000 because we replaced all of our PCs just 3 three years ago.' The lack of understanding of the issues is astounding to me, and is likely to lead to many failures both major as well as merely aggravating."

"Small businesses seeing little attention in the press and otherwise, simply do not understate where the failure points are, nor do they realize that if they start repairs quickly, they can avoid most of the small business failure points. With many small businesses experiencing failures at the same time early in 2000, timeliness of repairs will not be possible due to limited resources, and there are likely to be a large number of small business failures."

"Add to this the beginning stages of shaky financial markets and the early stages of stress related aberrant behavior, and we can project that things are likely to be very disruptive early in 2000. All of this for the U.S., one of the best prepared countries in the world. Year 2000 induced failures in other parts of the world are likely to be substantial and the impact will be felt with all trading partner countries."

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Bold OFF!

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.

. off, please...

-- tagboy (one@more.time), August 03, 1999.

All of what I have been reading since January, Gov, US NAVEL WAR COLLEGE, dates that have Billions + Billions of dollars printed, etc.etc. All talk about September. Those who are really in control of the world affairs I think have a good bead on things. I thought the MARKETS would have been toast by now. Maybe its starting. But short of the markets failing, or yet to beknowns about GPS. August should be another great mounth for stocking up, after all who wants to wake up that big ugly giant JOHN Q PUBLIC yet.....

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), August 03, 1999.

COBOL,

I really appreciate your points, always have, and you always make me think. And your last point on the angle of the ratings makes perfect sense, and so does Brooks' and so does...:-). Since my programing knowledge is non-existant, except what I have learned here, I am trying to sort through it all based on thoughts I can relate too. And even after posting and thinking about it while picking beans, I even "talked two ways at once". :-)

Trying to understanding Y2k is not easy; polly, middle roader or doomer...you all have things to say that I want to hear. Thanks.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Cobol,

If you somehow had discovered a way to fix Y2K problems worldwide, i.e. a sure fix and a plan to execute it before the roll-over, how would you go about making that known to the people responsible to fix the bug? You'd have to convince these people first would'nt you? A great many people would be skeptics and rather hard to convince. Wouldn't you write a detailed book? And if you did, wouldn't you want to be compensated for the time you spent writing it, the publishing costs etc? Books are only one avenue to alert people, so just writing a book wouldn't be enough to alert the people on time of your life saving discovery. So wouldn't you want to apear on t.v. and seminars to reach as many people as possible? Here again your time is being taken up, and you have to at least feed and shelter yourself, let alone if you have a family to care for.

I hope you see my point here. Plus, if you've followed these experts closely, and know something of their history, you'd know which to take seriously (i.e. their integrity and motives etc.) and which to take with a skeptic eye.

BTW, anyone knows what rating Ed Yardeni stands at these days? I've been away quiet a while, and if I remember around last February he was a 7.0

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 03, 1999.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ