8/3...where is the panic

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Hi all

What is going on...here it is August 3rd, 1 month and 3 days into the new fiscal year for at least 20% of public companies and no CRASH...(damn!!!). Remember when this board and our hero Ed claimed it would all start "no later than July" (I remember that phrase from Larry King live)....

Also, just noticing that Ed's peer Peter de Jager doesn't seem to think there is a problem anymore. http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990803/tc/millennium_airline_2.html ...Guess Mr. de Jager likes United's cash better than is future book deals.

While everyone on this board huddles in their bomb shelters eating freezed dried food, I bet Mr. Jager and Mr. Yourdon will be dining on prime rib at the Savoy in London having a gay ole time...

FLAME ON

-- Paulianna (way@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999

Answers

Why flame?

The future is always unknown until it becomes the past, at which time the record is run through the opinions and prejudices of those writing the histories.

I hope we all will be enjoying prime rib. Cheaper than freeze dried and tastes a lot better.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 03, 1999.


Don't feed the trolls.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 03, 1999.

Not a "yourdonite" , but i thought he said himself that he underestimated the spin.

heck, I underestimated the public's willingness to accept the spin, and ignore critical problems with the reasoning in press releases.

I think we all agree now, the problem will be as bad as the media wants it to be. THEY have all the control, because that's all people believe anymore. people don't believe it until they see it on CNN....

so, there could be a tsunami coming, right for you, and if you turn on cnn, and they're not saying anything about it, it doesn't matter if a few people in your office are telling you it's coming...

right?

remember, when you follow the herd, you might get slaughtered right along with them....

-- Superlurker (Slfsl@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Paulianna,

See for yourself what Ed has to say about lack of "early failures"...

http://www.yourdon.com/

It's the first item under articles and essays, "Response to Stephen Poole's open letter." <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Sorry Luker I must respond to that...I agree its all about spin (Yourdon's spin or the business communities)...Spin is what drives the stock market, and the economy(nothing new it has always been based on that..no politician has really ever changed the economy only the preception of the economy)...

If the spin is working than it will probably continue to work as long as the Y2K issues are more a burden rather than a absolute disaster.

IF the lights stay on, the phones work (for at least in 90% of the country) and the planes don't fall...the spin will probably work and any recession will be deemed a "natural business cycle"....

I know that is a big IF for a lot of people on this board but I think it is a fair assement of the situation....BTW I perfer cans to freezed dried...

-- Paulianna (way@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.



My Dear Paulianna

You have only just entered into the window (time frame) for the fatal dates in the the embeded systems... I rather think dear lady. Your optimisum will be greatly shaken over the coming 24 months. And perhaps more than a little fear will fill your heart as well. For it has always been the embeded systems which are the bigger, more dangerous problem.

Whistling as you walk past the grave yard.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), August 03, 1999.


The panic is now largely in the banking system.

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), August 03, 1999.

Paulianna commented:

"Spin is what drives the stock market, and the economy(nothing new it has always been based on that..no politician has really ever changed the economy only the preception of the economy)... "

Paulianna, SPIN = LIES nowadays. Spin has been taken to HEIGHTS never before seen. The organisations that get paid for this activity can make folks believe that black is white and vice versa. Today's spin is equivalent to lies and deceit. Governments, corporations and individuals participate with no concern for the consequences and there will be consequences !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 03, 1999.


I think the panic is among the folks that made all the dire predictions for 1998 and 1999. They are in panic because their credibility takes blow after blow.

I have noticed since the very beginning, that all of the most active and vocal doomers either have something to sell you, or have some kind of social or political agenda. Look at North, Milne, Hamasaki, etc; any of them.

There are a lot of people like myself that realize the problem and the potenial seriousness of it, but at the same time ralize that it has been overhyped for some kind of gain. The extreme polly side is wrong, it is a real problem, but the extreme doomer side is equally wrong.

As with most things in life, the truth lies somewhere between the extremes.

-- Dubious (Dubious@polly.net), August 03, 1999.


Panic...... "We don't want no stinkin' panic", gives us GI's lots more time to prepare and get first dibs on the good stuff. I hope nothing happens til 1/1, could use as much time as possible.

Let the trolls fuss about issues like this, keeps them out of the checkout line. BTW, why is it that the troll/pollys continue to worry about what/where the rest of us will be eatin' come 1/1 ????? Could someone please explain this phenomenon to me ?????? Could they be closet socialists, social engineers in training ????

-- happy shopper (mo' time@please.com), August 03, 1999.



Paulianna,

Embedded chips and systems do not experience the Jo Anne Effect.

Come January THE INFRASTRUCTURE WILL FAIL!!!



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 03, 1999.


I am seeing plenty of panic. It has largely taken the form of denial. Normally intelligent people who understand all about supply and demand, our dependancy on global trade and the current fragility of our nations overloaded infrastructure, blithely dismiss the concerns of the CIA and the Institute of Electrical Engineers.

Perhaps the panic you are reffering to should more properly be descibed as "mayhem" (rioting, looting etc....) I don't expect any of that to occur until the cable goes off and the Tee Vee goes dark. I'm not in any particular rush to see that happen.

Sufficient unto the day are the evils thereof.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 03, 1999.


Now that was nice...the color really helps give your post credibility...

I already locked my VCR in a lead box so it won't explode and kill me...on 1/1 will it stop blinking 12:00 and change to 00:00 ????..Thanks

-- Paulianna (way@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Paulianna,

Embedded chips and systems do not experience the Jo Anne Effect.

Come January THE INFRASTRUCTURE WILL FAIL!!!



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 03, 1999.


Yikes!!! HTML triage QUICK!

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 03, 1999.


K,

Please spare others the indignity of your html whims.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 03, 1999.


Paulianna,

My posts don't need no stinkin' credibility.

As of 12-31-98, 55% of reporting companies had experienced the dreaded JAE. That jumped to 72% as of 3-31-99. Because accrual accounting is almost universally usedfor large corporations, virtually 100% will have experienced JAE problems as of 9-31-99.

My point is that Embeddeds do NOT give a warning in advance of the rollover.

Come January, THE INFRASTRUCTURE WILL FAIL!!!



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 03, 1999.


K, why wait till January? You can go away right now and your HTML and big type won't be missed.

-- Dubious (dubious@polly.net), August 03, 1999.

Public Relations Experts Preparing Y2K Spin-Doctoring dated July 28 <:)=

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Worried about what Y2K will do to your computer, fuel bills, credit-card accounts and bank deposits? Don't worry.

Some of the nation's top image-making firms are preparing to ease your fears -- to explain them away or make you forget them. It's a byproduct of what many American corporations are calling ``crisis preparedness.''

Two of America's largest public-relations agencies, Burson-Marsteller and Hill and Knowlton, have set up teams and processes to help companies counter consumer fears and intensified media stress on the perils of computers unable to cope with the shift to the year 2000.

But some may wonder: is the Y2K frenzy already only a simple case of too much hype leading to an awful letdown?

Christopher P.A. Komisarjevsky, chief executive officer of Burson-Marsteller Worldwide, does not seem concerned by that possibility.

``No one knows what will happen,'' he said, ``but we see heightened interest and concern about it. It's both a technological and a perception issue. We see volatile moves among consumers, like hoarding water and food, hiding their cash and so on while the media reintensifies the issue, especially as we get closer to the end of the year.

``Companies that never got questioned about their methods will be barraged by the media and will have to respond to them, to customers, vendors and others. That's where we can help.''

Even those who may be skeptical surely recognize the Y2K hysteria that has gripped business and the public. Many banks, utilities and others have already assured their customers that they are taking steps to avert any problems come Jan. 1, 2000.

However, in recent weeks, some airlines have announced no flights on New Year's Eve. At least one major company has pulled an advertisement on Y2K, fearing it would lead to more questions than answers.

Companies have spent billions of dollars preparing their computers to recognize the year 2000 instead of reading it as 1900 or freezing up.

Aggressive insurance companies have offered policies covering possible computer glitches, and some are already being sued by corporate customers to recoup money spent on preventive repairs.

A rash of suits from consumers and advocacy groups is expected as the public finds itself anxious over potential electronic interruptions in basic services. Early in July, Congress passed a bill shielding businesses from computer-related suits by giving companies 90 days to fix Y2K problems before a suit can be filed. Whether this will curb litigation is hard to say.

Hill and Knowlton aims in its new program to ``prepare business in continuity planning, in case, say, a payroll goes down, the company can properly communicate with its employees or to exert damage-control in many other ways,'' said Michael Van Dusen, H&K's senior vice president responsible for global Y2K activity. ``We will work in teams, pulling together from 45 to 50 people in such of our practices as advanced technology and crisis communications.''

Van Dusen said he expects the most interest in the project to come from companies in telecommunications, finance, health care, food and auto parts.

At Burson-Marsteller, Komisarjevsky said, ``We believe that Y2K has the potential to be a major disruption for companies dealing with the public even if not a single computer malfunctions on New Year's Day. That's because the 'millennium bug' is no longer just a problem of technology but one of perception, too.''

Noting that ``irrational behavior'' can disrupt fourth-quarter business and hurt profits at thousands of companies, he said, ``the solution lies in guiding public perceptions and creating informed opinion now rather than letting uninformed opinion take the upper hand in coming months. That's where we come in.''

Komisarjevsky added that 24 ``communications command centers'' have been set up domestically and abroad to provide communications help between Dec. 31 and Jan. 3.

Burson-Marsteller will get its revenues from the project in either of two ways -- by charging existing clients for staff time to help them with Y2K issues or, in the case of new clients, it will charge a fixed fee. Hill and Knowlton is offering its program as a ``value-added'' or additional service to clients, rather than as a separate service, Van Dusen said.

``I think what the agencies are doing is a valid effort,'' said Fraser Seitel, a public relations consultant and author of a standard college text on the subject.

Asked whether the Y2K issue is perhaps being overdone, he responded: ``Well, many consultants have gotten rich helping corporations to get their systems arranged. But it's clearly a perception problem, too. If Armageddon looms, you have to be prepared for it. It's an extension of crisis preparedness.''

As more public relations agencies, advertising agencies and marketing consultants join in the spin-doctoring effort, it could conceivably breed an entire new professional services segment: ``Y2K Image Control.''



-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Why January??? Good question...

If these embedded systems have Real Time Clocks (most of the true computers have them) then by definition they are processing real world dates and time. It IS possible to ENCAPSULATE a system and have it use a "virtual" date, as long as a REAL data NEVER enters via data exchange, stray software, etc. but virtually none of these systems took that approach. January presents real dates which are not monotonically increasing. (See www.embedded-science.com for an excellent discussion and instruction manual)

Many more embedded chips fall far short of full computer status, yet process date and time stamps. Any large power user has some "interruptable service" contracts with power suppliers. These chips have failed rollover tests and in many cases have 'locked up'i.e. did not return to ZERZ STATE), necessitating printed circuit board replacement.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 03, 1999.


Oh jesus, now we are back to the "Invisible Failures" that all the companies are just covering up.

There wasn't anything fake about YourToasty's failed predictions. But as soon as someone brings that point up you Doomers call out your "Don't Feed the Trolls" Infantry.

Laughable, but hardly.

-- (duh@invisible failures. huh?), August 03, 1999.


K. Stevens - so you are saying that your date is 1/1/2000? That if we don't collapse on or near 1/1/2000 that you are going to feed the beans to the chickens and forget it? If not, please give me your final date for the BIG ONE to manifest.

Thanks.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


I'm going to have to be with Pauliana and dubious on this one. NOTHING HAS HAPPENED! NOTTA DAMN THING! I have a years worth of food and water stored. Been at the squirrel game now for 1-1/2 years. Man was I ever scared about the thought of TEOTWAWKI. I was day and night with very little sleep gathering as much doom and gloom information I could. I got on the soap box and warned neighbors, family and friends of the impending doom. They are coming to me saying, SO WHERE'S THE SKY FALLING IN AT? I've grown weary and plan to give all my food to the food bank come Thanksgiving, and use the water to water my lawn and flowers. I'll use all my ammo for target practice then sell my guns. I may hold onto one or two for self protection. I swallowed it all hook, line and sinker. And I do plan on eating prime rib, and gettling my life back.

-- No longer a fool (Nolongerafool@nolongerafool.com), August 03, 1999.

Dear No Longer,

Your logic is astonishing.

--ww

a few quotes...

"Sure it's always darkest before the dawn, but it's always the brightest just before the sun goes nova."

"For every credibility gap there is a gullibility fill. "

"It is better to keep silent and let someone think you a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. "

"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds, and the pessimist fears this is true."

-- winter wondering (winterwondering@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


In fact, why not pretend Thanksgiving is today? Since you believe the year 2000 came and went already, this won't be too much of a jump for you.

But oh look, on my calendar, it's still quite a few months from now. Now how can that be?

-- ThankYou, (drive@through.com), August 03, 1999.


Dear Not a fool: you're a fool. Sorry. Or else a very shallow troll.

I don't believe that someone who believed all the doomers would really dispose of all their supplies. So suddenly you are able to sleep? Me too. I haven't lost much sleep over this whole thing. It does no good to lie awake worrying. It only helps to prepare, and be aware.

So what if the sky doesn't fall? Great! I'll certainly be happy. Meanwhile, I'm almost as prepared as I need to be. All else is karma.

JOJ

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), August 03, 1999.


Did I miss the last, let's see, 4 months and 28 days of my life, No longer a fool? Yea, you look like a "trol" to me, but,

IT AIN'T Y2K YET!!!

Where's my rubber stamp... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 03, 1999.


Winter Wondering,

You forgot one little gem:

An optimist is someone who obviously does not understand the problem.

-- gizmo (gizmo@aol.com), August 03, 1999.


I'm not a troll, just a long time listener, contributor, lurker, and now I don't see any reason to be excited, scared, threatened, humiliated, or to carry on being manipulated with propaganda from the government, experts, or want-to-be's. I just see things in a different light now. Don't call me a troll just because I now see things differently. Bring me back to the other side before I dispose of my goods if you have something earth shattering that would make me rethink my decision. Not everyone is a troll here, just trying to make sense out of it all. Could it be possible that we are all brainwashed? Legitimate question. And, when you flame the serious, you push them further away.

-- No Longer A Fool (nolongerafool@nolongerafool.com), August 04, 1999.

No Longer A Fool: Let me get this right. You essentially ARE prepared for Y2K, but since you no longer believe it to be a threat, you are thinking about ditching your preps -- rather than holding onto them for a lousy 5 months to see what happens. Oh, yeah, and you are not a troll, either. Well, you certainly are not a very smart troll, thats for sure. You need to do better than that, dude.

Inquiring minds want to know: Paulianna = Paul Davis in drag???

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 04, 1999.

Your're wrong King Of Spain, and I think you've been mud wrestling too long. You have it right, why should I hold onto my stash if NOTHING HAS HAPPENED, and EVERYTHING IS GOING AS PLANNED! I'm giving all my stash away at Thanksgiving because that's when all the REAL TROLLS come out of the wood work and ask for handouts. However, I have it planned to where ONLY THE REAL NEEDY will get my stash! Besides, I just can't quite hack the taste of SPAM and canned salmon. I'm looking forward to that prime rib...and I'm changing my handle to: "not a turkey." So go ahead and barbecue me, but that's the way I see it now, at this time.........P.S. I wonder how many other's on this forum are thinking the way I think?

-- Not A Turkey (notaturkey@notaturkey.com), August 04, 1999.

Not-A-Turkey:

I'm one of the more optimistic some-time posters on this forum, and never DID believe any of the 1999 dates that the so-called-experts touted would cause problems. My lack of concern over these dates was due to my experience in IT and my work on remediation projects.

However, I'm as truly baffled as anyone else here as to why you would choose to give away food at Thanksgiving. Of course I have no idea how MUCH food you purchased, nor the variety. If you feel now that you've purchased too much or food that you don't generally like, I would agree that you should give it away.

Personally, I'm quite content with a full pantry of non-perishables these days. I didn't ALWAYS live this way, mind you. I got scared last year when my water director didn't have a positive picture regarding Year 2000 and water for my area. Things HAVE changed, and I may very well NOT need that food or water.

However, I've found it's been quite a comfort to have food in the house. My kids look in the pantry and say, "My God...there's food!" [grin] I never purchased spam. I never really understood what folks saw in it. I DID, however, purchase salmon. My entire family enjoys salmon patties. They also enjoy those canned hams that require no refrigeration. Tuna fish goes great with tuna helper. [Can you tell I'm NOT a cook? Rice and dried beans would throw me over the edge.]

I like prime rib also. I usually get it at restaurants where they know how to cook such things better than I. I settle for less, though, when I don't have the funds to eat out.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is: If you have food you don't like, give it away whenever you want. [Why did you buy food you didn't like?] If you feel you have too much, feel free to give extras away also. I never bought any food I didn't like. I'm just now allowing my family to help themselves to food in the pantry. Of course I replace anything eaten within a week if they liked it. There's just a certain comfort in not having to go to the grocery store because we have no food.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), August 04, 1999.


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