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Just finished catching up after being off for a couple days. In reading threads rather quickly a specific thread stood out. The respondent replied with a comment regarding the verbage being used these days of---- "WE ARE READY" instead of --"WE ARE COMPLIANT"

I know I had heard this before, but I then read the FCC report on telecom and sure enough there it was again--- "WE ARE READY".

ok here's my question: Is it a figment of our collective imaginations or are the powers that be---evolving to that phraseology for obvious reasons and if so is it as significant a retreat from the word "compliant" as it appears to be? It it a legal manuever or a recognition of the inevitable.

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), July 29, 1999

Answers

August 21, GPS and the Grid

By Tim Castleman

Like the ripples on a pond when a stone is tossed in, Midnight, August 21, 1999 signals the beginning of the instability of the grid. That is when the GPS satellite clocks will reset to zero, and certain devices that rely on that signal will fail. The actual quantity of devices that will fail is unknown. Receivers manufactured before 1994 are especially prone to failure. All utilities employ a very precise portion of that timing signal as a source for an array of data recording and control systems. Timing is everything in the utility business. Especially power generation and transmission.

Large amounts of bulk power are shipped around via a massive web of interconnected high voltage wires. Variations are measured in every imaginable way, but frequency is the most watched. Small moves in frequency can develop into big troubles, tripping automatic devices and overloading things here and there. That's how brownouts and blackouts happen.

A sophisticated computer system keeps track of all this, adjusts things, records things, accomplishing major tasks of data management that would require hundreds of personnel manning millions of switches, which would be far more error prone than the computer. These systems are referred to as SCADA and EMS.

So, when the timing signal data starts to get a little screwy, things will begin to get a bit unstable. Not all at once, it will be a cumulative effect. Small errors will enter the stream of information constantly flowing from facility to facility, via satellites (more about these later), phone wires, radio signals etc.

These sophisticated systems will initially make minor adjustments automatically, and certain operations always require operator intervention and or approval. These minor adjustments are recorded and logged, used for future forecasting and so forth. So now the slight errors have entered the database. Once there, the corruption, and eventual failure of the system has begun.

As larger scale testing gets underway during August and September, the potential exists, and in fact has happened, of system failures due to the testing. Human error, Back up systems not ready, whatever. More corrupt data enters the stream.

October marks the new final deadline for 100% readiness. Even that has become a farce. Gone is the term "Compliant", no one seriously thinks that could happen, and they are right. There is no way to fully remediate and test the whole system. It simply cannot be done, no matter how much time we had.

Instead we have "Ready", which is a watered down version of "Compliant". In short, it says that pretty much any method goes, windowing, date interception, date expansion, TSR's (an old fashioned DOS thing that resides in memory, and caused all sorts of havoc then), whatever. Patch it. It's ok. Testing will reveal any problems, and the emergency response teams will solve them. Becoming "Y2K Ready" simply means you are working on it, and have a team of experts on call to fix problems AS THEY COME UP.

No one knows for sure how many systems will fail, or when. A certain percentage of failures, added up over time will lead to spot outages. For example, the NERC database reports that out of 193 EASTERN Interconnect companies, 181 expect a failure. This failure could be something as simple as a fire alarm going off, or security system going haywire, or, it could happen in a SCADA /EMS system. Of course the latter is a worst case scenario, right? Of course.

Here is a list of "Exceptions" allowed by the NERC for utilities reporting,

Non Nuclear exceptions:

Emmission monitoring Generator controls SCADA/EMS Communications Customer support systems Justifications:

Upgrades and testing Vendor availability So, added to the watered down, "Y2K Ready" requirement, there are "Exceptions" allowed if the reason for non-readiness is due to Upgrades and Testing OR Vendor availability.

So a company can claim readiness, even if they are not ready, simply by stating that the delay is due to Upgrades and Testing, to any of those systems listed above, or, they are waiting for a vendor to respond in some way. Most are waiting on the vendors.

I am using data from the July 10 EASTERN Interconnection report to the NERC for this article. In the summary of the data collected, the average completion status is given as 99%. That means on average, utilities in the eastern interconnect did not make the July 1 deadline, even the greatly relaxed "Ready" deadline!

Names are not given in the copy I have. Each utility is identified by a number only.

Back to the satellites. There are 24 for the GPS alone.

There are thousands more for all kinds of communication. On board those satellites - the same technology we are wrestling with here, only worse. It is not possible to physically access them at all. This is the equipment called for in all contingency plan details made public to date, to provide back-up communications for all utility companies, with a hot line directly to the DOE.

In addition to the obvious rollover issues, solar flare activity is increasing now and is expected to continue to increase culminating with an 11 year high peak in December, 1999 and January, 2000.

These flares generate enormous amounts of electromagnetic energy. The last peak was in 1989 and was responsible for the grid outage in Quebec. Satellites are at such great risk that evasive maneuvers are planned during these times, things like turning some part of it away from the sun, putting exposed units in "Sleep" mode etc.

The President issued an Executive Order July 14, 1999, which states in part:;

The NIAC will report to the President through the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, who shall assure appropriate coordination with the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy.

NIAC - NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSURANCE COUNCIL.

http://www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri- res/I2R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1999/7/15/10.text.1

National Security Affairs is involved now. For the next two years, three if needed.

To summarize:

In May, 1999, 42% of Public utilities and 18% of Co-ops knew they would not be ready by the July 1 deadline, and so did the NERC Y2K Coordinator, Gerry Cauley. As a whole, the industry did not meet the July 1 deadline The "Exceptions" list includes the most critical systems for power generation and transmission. About half of the companies will not be testing the work they are doing About the same number will not make this information available to the public When asked if they had completed testing of SCADA/EMS systems, 17 said N/A, 90 said yes, and 50 said NO. Also, 44 had not completed contingency plans (again missing the July 1 deadline). Of 193 EASTERN Interconnect companies responding, 181 expect failures Nothing is mentioned about the GPS in either of these reports Executive Order July 14 would not be necessary for a system as close to "Ready" as claimed.

These are disturbing facts. Even more disturbing is the ongoing cover up and media campaign to keep these details secret. The general public does not get much of a chance to make prudent preparations. One of the slides uses this statement as a title:

"Defense in Depth Strategy: Emergency Preparedness is Important Step"

So, as concerns the NERC and utility companies, Emergency preparedness is an important step. But when the average Joe Public says that, he is branded as a lunatic fringe alarmist.

Ok, this lunatic fringe alarmist has uncovered hard evidence of the cover up. I have several Powerpoint presentations intended for internal use at the NERC and almost 8 megabytes of Excel Spreadsheet data to prove it.

The bottom line is that no one knows for sure how much will fail, just that it will.

-- Tim Castleman (aztc@earthlink.net), July 29, 1999.


Tim,

I am so astounded by this information I printed it out for my husband to read.

Thanks, FOX

-- FOX (ardrinc@aol.com), July 29, 1999.


How about sharing those pages and spread sheet?

-- Hannah (Hannah@Colonial America.com), July 29, 1999.

I surely will share this info. I just haven't exactly figured out the best way to make it available. I am thinking a simple FTP would be best. I would appreciate any suggestions...

-- Tim Castleman (aztc@earthlink.net), July 29, 1999.

I believe that the *powers to be", as you put it... fully understand the inability or perhaps disinterest, of John Q. Public to discern the difference. Why can't *ready* mean compliant? By assuming that conclusion, the powers that be achieve BOTH of their objectives: (1) keep sheeple in state of complacency for as long as possible, and (2) cover their arses. IMHO.

-- I'm (with@titude.now), July 29, 1999.


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