"The other Y2K" Remember the song "Here comes the Sun"? Well---

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I'm particularly interested in the anomaly seen in the last peak series of flares. The *historical graphs show Flux *above* the flare curve* until this year. On June 26-27 the sunspot numbers went to levels rarely seen. This, while the Flux rates remained stable. It appears that we are again in a cycle of increasing activity, which is expected, but once again the Flux levels are above sunspot counts which may portend of even greater risk during this series of flares. Historical data may be viewed at http://dxlc.com/solar/

These are some of the current comments about "The other Y2K"

Region 8636 is capable of producing a major (proton) flare at any time over the next 2-3 days. Region 8639 stabilized but is capable of minor M class flaring. Region 8640 was quiet and stable. Region 8642 developed slowly and could produce occasional C flares. Region 8643 was quiet and stable. New region 8644 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb. It appears to be trailed closely by another region which would be the source of 2 of the day's M flares and could be capable of major flaring.

Comment added at 08:33 UTC on July 24: The M1.7 earlier today had its origin at the southeast limb. An M3.3 long duration event peaked at 08:02 UTC, the origin was likely in region 8636. A large coronal mass ejection may have been associated with the flare.

Comment added at 12:03 UTC: Yet another 2 M flares have been recorded during the last hour. First an M2.1 impulsive flare (likely from the new region at the southeast limb) was noted at 11:22 UTC, then at 11:33 UTC an M2.0 flare (origin probably region 8636) occurred. The M3.3 flare earlier today was in region 8636, the associated CME is likely to impact earth on July 27. Any discussion on the possible effects of an impact will have to await the availability of LASCO images.

Here are some useful terms to watch for associated with this study;

COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME. By international agreement, the local time at the prime meridian, which passes through Greenwich, England. Therefore, it is also known as GREENWICH MEAN TIME, or sometimes simply UNIVERSAL TIME.

FLUX. The rate of flow of a physical quantitiy through a reference surface.

FLARE. A sudden eruption of energy on the solar DISK lasting minutes to hours, from which radiation and particles are emitted.

GAMMA RAYS. High energy radiation (energies in excess of 100 keV) observed during large, extremely energetic solar FLARES.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM. A worldwide disturbance of the earth's magnetic field, distinct from regular diurnal variations.

Minor Geomagnetic Storm: A storm for which the Ap index was greater than 29 and less than 50.

Major Geomagnetic Storm: A storm for which the Ap index was greater than 49 and less than 100.

Severe Geomagnetic Storm: A storm for which the Ap index was 100 or more.

Initial Phase: Of a geomagnetic storm, that period when there may be an increase of the MIDDLE-LATITUDE horizontal intensity (H).

Main Phase: Of a geomagnetic storm, that period when the hori- zontal magnetic field at middle latitudes is generally decreasing.

Recovery Phase: Of a geomagnetic storm, that period when the depressed northward field component returns to normal levels.

GEOPHYSICAL EVENTS. Flares (Importance two or larger) with Centimetric Outbursts (maximum of the flux higher than the Quiet Sun flux, duration longer 10 minutes) and/or strong SID. Sometimes these flares are followed by Geomagnetic Storms or small PCA. (Class M Flares)

GROUND-LEVEL EVENT (GLE). A sharp increase in ground-level COSMIC RAY count to at least 10% above background, associated with solar protons of energies greater than 500 MeV. GLEs are relatively rare, occur- ring only a few times each SOLAR CYCLE

.HIGH ENERGY EVENT. Flares (class two or more) with outstanding Centimetric Bursts and SID. High Energy Protons are reported at the Earth in case of most of these events occurring on the western part of solar disk. (Class X flares)

HIGH-SPEED STREAM. A feature of the SOLAR WIND having velocities that are about double average solar wind values.

K INDEX. A 3-hourly quasi-logarithmic local index of geomagnetic activity relative to an assumed quiet-day curve for the recording site. Range is from 0 to 9. The K index measures the deviation of the most disturbed horizontal component.

LIMB. The edge of the solar DISK.

MAGNETOSPHERE. The magnetic cavity surrounding the earth, carved out of the passing SOLAR WIND by virtue of the GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, which pre- vents, or at least impedes, the direct entry of the SOLAR WIND PLASMA into the cavity.

MICROWAVE BURST. A radiowave signal associated with optical and/or X-ray FLAREs.

PLAGE. An extended emission feature of an ACTIVE REGION that exists from the emergence of the first magnetic flux until the widely scattered remnant magnetic fields merge with the background.

PROTON. Solar activity levels with at least on high energy event (Class X Flares)

RADIO EMISSION. Emissions of the sun in radio wavelengths from centimeters to dekameters, under both quiet and disturbed conditions.

Type I. A noise storm composed of many short, narrow-band bursts in the metric range (300 - 50 MHz).

Type II. Narrow-band emission that begins in the meter range (300 MHz) and sweeps slowly (tens of minutes) toward deka- meter wavelengths (10 MHz). Type II emissions occur in loose association with major FLAREs and are indicative of a shock wave moving through the solar atmosphere.

Type III. Narrow-band bursts that sweep rapidly (seconds) from decimeter to dekameter wavelengths (500 - 0.5 MHz). They often occur in groups and are an occasional feature of complex solar ACTIVE REGIONs.

Type IV. A smooth continuum of broad-band bursts primarily in the meter range (300 - 30 MHz). These bursts are associated with some major flare events beginning 10 to 20 minutes after the flare maximum, and can last for hours.

SOLAR MAXIMUM. The month(s) during the SOLAR CYCLE when the 12-month mean of monthly average SUNSPOT NUMBERS reaches a maximum. The most recent solar maximum occurred in July 1989.

SOLAR WIND. The outward flux of solar particles and magnetic fields from the sun. Typically, solar wind velocities are near 350 km/s.

SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT(SC, or SSC for Storm Sudden Commencement). An abrupt increase or decrease in the northward component of the geomagnetic field, which marks the beginning of a GEOMAGNETIC STORM.

SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI+ or SI-). A sudden perturbation of several gammas in the northward component of the low-latitude geomagnetic field, not associated with a following GEOMAGNETIC STORM. (An SI becomes an SC if a storm follows.)

SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE (SID). HF propagation anomalies due to ionospheric changes resulting from solar FLAREs, PROTON EVENTs and GEOMAGNETIC STORMs.

SUNSPOT NUMBER. A daily index of SUNSPOT activity (R), defined as R = k (10 g + s) where S = number of individual spots, g = number of sunspot groups, and k is an observatory factor.

SUNSPOT NUMBER. A daily index of SUNSPOT activity (R), defined as R = k (10 g + s) where S = number of individual spots, g = number of sunspot groups, and k is an observatory factor.

WHITE LIGHT FLARE. A major FLARE in which small parts become visible in white light. Such flares are usually strong X-ray, radio, and particle emitters.

X-RAY FLARE CLASS. Rank of a FLARE based on its X-ray energy output. Flares are classified by the order of magnitude of the peak burst inten- sity (I) measured at the earth in the 1 to 8 angstrom band as follows:

Class (in Watt/sq. Meter)

B I less than (l.t.) 10.0E-06

C 10.0E-06 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-05

M 10.0E-05 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-04

X I g.e.= 10.0E-04

PS. There's possibly another anomoly out there also, but (shrug) it's hard to seperate the truth from the fiction these days!!!

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), July 24, 1999

Answers

All very interesting Michael...but tell me, does this mean I need to buy a hard hat? Can you word your essay in such a manner that dummies like me can get some kind or grasp of what all this means. I don't have the foggiest idea of what the ramifications of all this is to me and mine.

Taz...who needs to know whether or not to add this to her "worry" list, her prepare list,.... or just forget it.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), July 24, 1999.


Since the sun is 93,000,000 miles away,does this mean that this whatever it is that is happening, happened xxx years ago and we are just seeing it now? Or do we have new instruments that can measure what is happening now? And if so what impact can it have on us?

I'm with you, Taz, my worry list is overbooked. My dance cards in high school should have been this full ! The sun, asteroids, and being nuked by China or Russia, I'm just going to farm out for somebody else to worry about.

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 24, 1999.


Michael.......we've seen all these 'important' numbers before but the earth is still here and the sun is still there.........

Duh........at least tell us what your point is in giving this to us, give us some conclusion you have come to, some reason to have the slightest bit of interest in it.........there may be something of interest to us in there but you have to give us a clue please!

Sue.........for the record, even though the sun is approx. 93 million miles away, it still only takes about 8 minutes for events that happen there to be seen from the earth......light is quite fast!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), July 24, 1999.


I belive that the sun is about 8 light-minutes from Earth. Light travels @ 186,000 miles/second. You do the math...

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 24, 1999.

It has been said by people much brighter than I, that the worry facing us as 2000 approaches, may well be the Sun. Considering the past effects of solar storms on our electrical grid, I thought those interested in differentiating between system or chip failures (not caused by date function) and other equally disastrous possibilities, might want to become aware of this threat.

I personally want to know which function is causing the disruption, and then make plans accordingly. A temporary outage caused by solar disruptions will look just the same as a system failure due to the Y2k "BUG", within my environment. But the long term effects can be quite different.

So, for any that care to look at some recent history, feel free to see the following archived data....or not.

Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums

Summary and Comments

(feel free to mail this page)

Category: Power_Grid Date: 1997-06-09 00:00:00 Subject: Solar Flares in 2000: Another Disaster Factor Link: http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/archive/1996/do... Comment: As if the Millennium Bug were not enough to contend with, there is another factor scheduled: solar flares. TIME (Sept. 9, 1996) reported: "Cosmic Storms Coming." Storm damages in the past has disrupted satellite communications.

Magnetic field lines are affected during such storms. The result: ". . . powerful currents surge through high reaches of the atmosphere, where they can utterly scramble broadcast signals. . . . These surface currents can corrode buried pipelines, interrupt transatlantic phone conversations and overheat electrical transformers. . . . The next solar maximum, due sometime in 2000, could create worse nightmares. For one thing, modern societies, with their cellular and satellite navigation and communication systems, have become more vulnerable than ever to electronic disruptions. Equally worrisome is the fact that electrical utilities have created enormous power grids in an effort to save money. The power outages that plagued the American West this summer [1996] provide a dramatic illustration of how vulnerable these systems have become."

The year 2000 poses a lot of problems. Be prepared.

For the government's technical report on flares, 2000-2005, read the U.S. government's report, Solar Cycle 23 Project. Link: http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/archive/1996/do...

Return to Category: Power_Grid

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I have read that it takes about two days after the CME or flare, for

the effects to reach us. So if he is talking about possible large

flare in the next 48 hours, then it will be a couple of days

more (IF...it occurs) until we ?may? not be able to xtalk here. Boy

that thought is kinda depressing.

One more thing, if you notice there are other regions that are

developing, and these are only the ones visible at this time, in the

27 day (avg)cycle of rotation, particularly 8603 The trend seems to be

here though.

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/archive/1996/dom/960909/space. html

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/info/Cycle23.html

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/162

http://www.sunspotcycle.com/#aurora

Solar-terrestrial conditions for the last 24 hours follow: Solar activity was (Very low, Low, Moderate, High, or Very high) , the geomagnetic field was (Quiet, Unsettled, Active, Minor storm, Major storm, Severe storm) .'

The Geophysical Alert Broadcasts consist of three primary sections to describe the Solar-terrestrial environment: The most current information, then a summary of activity for the past 24 hours, and finally a forecast for the next 24 hours. The actual wording of each section of the broadcast is explained below with a brief description of what is being reported. Similar wording is also used in other broadcasts, so the WWV example is relevant to other reports too.

Current Information

'Solar-terrestrial indices for (UTC Date) follow: Solar flux (number) and (estimated) Boulder A index (number) . Repeat, solar flux (number) and (estimated) Boulder A index (number) . The Boulder K index at (UTC time) on (UTC Date) was (number) repeat (number) .'

Since the final A index is not available until 0000 UTC, the word 'estimated' is used for the 1800 and 2100 UTC announcements.

Solar Flux

Solar Flux is a measurement of the intensity of solar radio emissions at a frequency of 2800 MHz made using a radio telescope located in Ottawa, Canada. Known also as the 10.7 cm flux (the wavelength of the radio signals at 2800 MHz), this solar radio emission has been shown to be proportional to sunspot activity. In addition, the level of the sun's ultraviolet and X-ray emissions is primarily responsible for causing ionization in the earth's upper atmosphere. It is these emissions which produce the ionized 'layers' involved in propagating shortwave radio signals over long distances.

The solar flux number reported in the broadcast is in solar flux units (s. f. u.) and is recorded daily at Ottawa at 1700 UTC to be forwarded to the SESC. Solar flux readings range from a theoretical minimum of approximately 67 to actually-observed numbers greater than 300. Low solar flux numbers dominate during the lower portions of the 11-year sunspot cycle, rising as the cycle proceeds with the average solar flux a fairly reliable indicator of the cycle's long-term behavior. 1 s. f. u. = 10-22Watts/meter2 Hz = 104 jansky.

A IndexThe A Index is an averaged quantitative measure of geomagnetic activity derived from a series of physical measurements. Magnetometers measure differences between the current orientation of the magnetosphere and compare it to what it would be under 'quiet' geomagnetic conditions.

But there is more to understanding the meaning of the Boulder A index reported in the Geophysical Alert Broadcasts. The Boulder A index in the announcement is the 24 hour A index derived from the eight 3-hour K indices recorded at Boulder. The first estimate of the Boulder A index is at 1800 UTC. This estimate is made using the six observed Boulder K indices available at that time (0000 to 1800 UTC) and the SESC forecaster's best prediction for the remaining two K indices. To make those predictions, SESC forecasters examine present trends and other geomagnetic indicators. At 2100 UTC, the next observed Boulder K index is measured and the estimated A index is reevaluated and updated if necessary. At 0000 UTC, the eighth and last Boulder K index is measured and the actual Boulder A index is produced. For the 0000 UTC announcement and all subsequent announcements the word 'estimated' is dropped and the actual Boulder A index is used.

The underlying concept of the A index is to provide a longer-term picture of geomagnetic activity using measurements averaged either over some time frame or from a range of stations over the globe (or both). Numbers presented as A indices are the result of a several-step process: first, a magnetometer reading is taken to produce a K index for that station (see K INDEX below); the K index is adjusted for the station's geographical location to produce an a index (no typographical error here, it is a small case 'a') for that 3-hour period; and finally a collection of a indices is averaged to produce an overall A index for the timeframe or region of interest.

A and a indices range in value from 0 to 400 and are derived from K-indices based on the table of equivalents shown in the APPENDIX.

K Index

The K index is the result of a 3-hourly magnetometer measurement comparing the current geomagnetic field orientation and intensity to what it would have been under geomagnetically 'quiet' conditions. K index measurements are made at sites throughout the globe and each is carefully adjusted for the geomagnetic characteristics of its locality. The scale used is quasi logarithmic, increasing as the geomagnetic field becomes more disturbed. K indices range in value from 0 to 9.

In the Geophysical Alert Broadcasts, the K index used is usually derived from magnetometer measurements made at the Table Mountain Observatory located just north of Boulder, Colorado. Every 3 hours new K indices are determined and the broadcasts are updated.



-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), July 24, 1999.



Guess this means we need to start wearing out tin foil hats alla time... :-D

-- No Way Jose (lurkinghere@ho.me), July 24, 1999.

If you are not sufficiently worried about the Sun now, ask a physicist about the Solar Neutrino Deficit. Photons produced in the center of the Sun take a huge time to reach the surface of the Sun, then, blip, they are here 9 minutes later. Neutrinos produced in the center of the Sun reach here in 9 minutes flat, without being delayed for thousands or millions of years in bouncing around inside the Sun. (Neutrinos are much more aloof than cats, and can go through miles of lead without hitting anything.) (Gazillions of neutrinos went through you while you were reading this post; did it hurt?)

The calculations apparently indicate that the current neutrino flux is way below the amount which would be produced if the Sun were still engaged in fusion. We are seeing old light, of course. Implication: the Sun has gone out. We just don't see it yet. How long ago did it go out? And if it did, is this not a prescription for a pre-nova Solar collapse? (Caveat: I truly do not know what I am talking about here...) (of course, we don't have any first hand reports yet from the center of the Sun, so I guess I am not alone....)

-- Joseph R. Whaley (whaley@attorney-us.com), July 24, 1999.


Ok, my error. I must be thinking of light years in relation to planets or other galaxies or whatever.

However, if the sun has gone out (previous post) then supposedly we would know it in 8 minutes? More confused than ever. Should have skipped this thread.

"Of all the things I've had and lost, it's my mind I miss the most".

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 25, 1999.


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