In The Seventh Month From The Skies......

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

Comment added at 20:42 UTC on July 23: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled today. Both regions 8636 and (new region at the southeast limb) 8644 have been running hot most of the day. Region 8644 produced an M1.0 impulsive flare at 16:01 UTC. From 19:20 to 20:20 the x-ray flux was near the M1.0 level, peaking at the M1.2 level just after 20h UTC. The source of this M flare was a long duration event from region 8636. This caused the solar flux measurement at 20:00 UTC to reach 193.7, an increase by over 40 in one day. X class flares from region 8636 over the next days are quite likely, and even region 8644 could be the site of an X flare.

-- Predictions (old@frenchman.com), July 23, 1999

Answers

I have heard several experts (on Art Bell's show), state that the solar flares will have the potential to be more devastating to earth than Y2K could ever be.

-- hotlips (hotlips@hotlipsss.com), July 23, 1999.

Hey, could one of you astro-types translate this into the tongue of us commoners?

Anita E.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 23, 1999.

X Class flares can cause power outages (as in Canada) and big time satellite disruptions. This is not a good prognosis.

Remember the "pager" failure early this year, more to come!

-- Wada (ya@know.com), July 23, 1999.

Yes, but the "science of prediction" on these things is not quite there. We know they can be very destructive and we think we know how to tell when they're kicking off, but our trajectory and impact analysis seems off. A few months back the activity was getting pretty hot on this, so I began tracking the stuff daily from the Astro geek websites. At one point they began saying that an M class flare had kicked off and had a 95% chance for terrestrial (that'd be us) impact. M class is not as bad as old X class by far, but we never got one anyway.

Any way you slice it though this stuff could really suck.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), July 23, 1999.

That happens every 11 years give or take a few.

Since the existence of this solar system.

Mostly hipe. A good story for reporters that have nothing else to

report and a great diversion from Y2k

-- Rickjohn (rickjohn1@yahoo.com), July 23, 1999.

True, Rickjohn, but today would you not agree we have more "stuff" in space and on the ground that could be affected than ever before - so Solar Max 23 could be of greater impact than ever before?

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 23, 1999.

Rickjohn--can we then say too that Y2K is all hype? Pure speculation and prediction isn't it?

-- sizzlingsue (sizzlingsue@sizzle.com), July 23, 1999.

sizzlingsue: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 23, 1999.

I became very aware of the possibilities a few months ago. Since then, I have done some pretty extensive research (for an amateur.) Things do not look too good, according to several persons that have expertise in the field. Then again it is not necessarily anything that hasn't happened in the past. It's just the lousy timing in my humble view. Just what we need, huh? That and the fact we are so electronically vulnerable to Solar Max!

Well there's more, but I am trying to keep the tilt meter in balance with the input. (I have done remarkably well so far, if I do say so myself.)

If you study the history a bit, you will no doubt choose to watch intently, disregard completely, or lurk vicariously. But after you view some of the Inet videos of this marvelous orb, you will never forget what our life giving benefactor appears like.

PS. It may well be a life taking malefactor to boot.

NASA Science News for July 22, 1999

Predicting What the Sun Will Do Next - By comparing several techniques and combining aspects of a couple of the best, scientists better predict the Sun's weather. Solar weather effects our weather, satellites in orbit, electrical power systems, and radio and television communication. Full story at:

http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/ast22jul99_1.htm

Link for AOL users.

Their reporting has, at times, the appearance of *smoothed average* vernacular.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), July 23, 1999.

King of Spain--mudwrestling is too messy, and I would get my golden curly locks dirty. How about something more dignified?

-- sizzlingsue (sizzlingsue@sizzle.com), July 24, 1999.

Sizzlingsue, How about lime jello? I could whip up a batch...;-) With pinneapple chunks fresh from the garden?

-- J (jart5@bellsouth.net), July 24, 1999.

I wish SOME people would quit clogging the threads with nonsense and pay attention to what is important.... Now, about this mud wrestling, where can I view it?...TJ

-- Tim Johnson (timca@webtv.net), July 24, 1999.

http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Jul 23 at 22:00 UT

SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: AT A MINIMUM, SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8636, 8639, AND 8644 (OR THE REGION BEHIND IT) ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8636 COULD PRODUCE AN X-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.

GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 24-25 JUL.

***********

SHOULD REGION 8636 PRODUCE A LARGE FLARE, IT WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE CHARACTERISTICS (LARGE AREA, LONG DURATION, AND CME CREATION) TO PRODUCE A SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT THE EARTH.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you live within 5min of a XClass solar flare your toast!

-- Predictions (old@frenchman.com), July 24, 1999.

None of this meant squat to me until I read this informative page. http://www.sec.noaa.gov/primer/primer.html It may not be y2k related, but it is interesting and defines a few terms. Preparer

-- Preparer (nursery@ns.net), July 24, 1999.