CNBC - "Y2k concerns drive market down"

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I usually have CNBC turned on during the day. I'm not invested, just learning about all the different idiosyncrasies of the market.

Well, today things turned. The mood grew dim. There was more talk today about Y2k than at anytime I remember over the last year. When asked, many analysts said they had deep concerns.

And this was due to the market heading south. The coverage didn't drive the market down, concerns did. So, the market finally seems to be taking Y2k into account.

Joe Kernan even mentioned the dreaded "conspiracy" when questioning why, all of a sudden, the mood would "shift".

"This is serious", one trader said.

The whole "feeling" in the way things were reported changed.

I hate this. Really, I hate it. I had expected it. I even factored it in to my assessment. But I didn't want this to happen.

I hope this is not the start of a serious shift downward but it's amazing how quickly analysts can mood swing and today things looked really bad.

Just me reporting what I'm hearing.

What I want is for someone to tell me not to worry this is only a modest correction.

At 1:00 pm.

Dow -202.63

Nasdaq - 100

SAP -30

Mike

==========================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 20, 1999

Answers

From CBS MarketWatch at the end of today's session (note, text may change at any time):

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/ibm.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

IBM shares tumble on Y2K concerns. [snip] Investors dumped IBM on Tuesday amid Y2K concerns even though the company said second-quarter profits jumped 17 percent, bolstered by robust computer hardware sales. [snip] Despite the strong results, concern remains that sales could taper off in the second half as companies delay computer-related purchases until the so-called Year 2000 issue is resolved. The issue involves the inability of older computers to read the date of the year 2000, which could cause costly computer malfunctions. "We didn't learn anything new in the second quarter about Y2K impact on customer-buying patterns," Maine said. He added that it was "premature to come to any new conclusions about the remaining quarters of 1999." Year 2000 concerns also figured prominently in Microsoft's forward-looking comments as the company announced that it expected slower sales growth partly because of dealings with the computer bug. [snip]

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.


Also, from CNNfn:

Piracy, Y2K dog Microsoft
Millennium bug, illicit software could hinder revenue, says international chief
http://ww w.cnnfn.com/1999/07/20/worldbiz/msft_europe/

Profit taking, or wake up call? Due to the market's volatility during the past year, it's hard to tell. I wouldn't be surprized to see another rally towards 12,000 before things start getting messy.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), July 20, 1999.


Hello Mike,

I have been watching the "ticker" at the bottom of CNN's screen and it looks like the market will close at only a slight improvement over your 1:00 figures. I told my husband about some of the "trivia" or "blasts from the past" from 1929, overvalued stocks, the supposed never-ending bull market, etc. and kept watching the numbers go down. I must admit that I used a term unknown to me before this weekend's tragedy: I wondered if the market is in a "graveyard spin".

I also hope it doesn't happen but there is also a part of me that has been so afraid of it happening that I almost want the suspense to be ended. I recognize that if the market crashes it will mean hardship for me and mine..... it just seems inevitable and better to stop now before it has even farther to fall. I too am saddened to see the analysts talking the darker talk, even though I have been prepping early to avoid the "panic" I still hold out hope that all will be ok. We will have to ride it out and see.

Hey...maybe tomorrow it will all bounce up again and the talking heads will be smiling..... that would be nice.

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), July 20, 1999.


Thanks to both of you. Mike, I saw it too. I'm feeling like you about it being a 'first'. The rest of the week will be more of a deciding factor as to the apparent trend they experienced today. Some of the evening chat on the various stations should be interesting tonight, provided they can tear themselves away from running the Kennedy tragedy into the ground. (as if running themselves into the ocean wasn't bad enough)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 20, 1999.

Gee,

How are they going to invent a sex scandal or come up with another dead Kennedy fast enough to distract us from this news?

Here it comes folks. We are on our way now. No more foolin around. Stay alert - get those bug-out bags ready. Won't be long now.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), July 20, 1999.



CNBC, has been Wall Street's mouthpiece for many years. They have encouraged the brokerage shills to sing their market praises to the roof tops with VERY FEW probing questions asked.

Of course many of their livelihoods depend on the market's eternal rise. When the big BEAR arrives many of their sponsors will be heading for the hills along with their advertising budgets.

Watch 10889 on the Dow.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 20, 1999.


Thank you Steven Hochberg.........er, sorry, Ray :)

-- de (delewis@Xinetone.net), July 20, 1999.

Folks, you are underestimating the complexity and outright majesty of the way the market is being manipulated and the way the media are spinning the news about it.

This "sell-off" is another trap; the market will continue to go up, up, up until late this year when the facts about Y2K can no longer be denied.

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), July 20, 1999.


De, you must be an Elliot Wave enthusiast.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 20, 1999.


Don't be so fast to speculate where the market is headed. None of us ever thought several months ago that we would be seeing the stock market at 11,000. Greenspan will be speaking in a few days and many investors are nervious about that. I remember a few posters here were urging people to buy gold when it was $296.00 an ounce...I'm glad I sat on the fence on that one.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), July 20, 1999.


Distraction? China nuke-flying over Taiwan, Koreas, time for King of Moguls to flash in the sky? That might be diverting for a month or two.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 20, 1999.

unconventional wisdom

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000Mt0

-- (just@being.helpful), July 20, 1999.


There's a difference between genuine Y2K concerns of the type we share and concerns about a drop-off in technology purchases due to companies putting things on hold temporarily. I suspect the level of concern about actual economic damage from Y2K failures is no greater than it was two months ago: i.e., not much.

-- Bill Byars (billbyars@softwaresmith.com), July 20, 1999.

>> What I want is for someone to tell me not to worry this is only a modest correction. <<

Well, so far that is what it is. Some bad signs would be a gathering of downward momentum through this week, with the market off by more than 8% by Friday. That would all but guarantee a bloody Monday next week.

But, my gut feeling is that this Bull won't be broken by anything less than a 30% decline in a matter of 2-3 weeks. That would not only flush out the "hot" money, but also break the back of most buyers on margin, and lead the mutual fund crowd to make some substantial redemptions or reallocations.

Just my hunch. Don't get shaken by one day moves. A crash takes at least 6-8 days to play out, probably more like 12-14 days.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), July 20, 1999.


I've been watching the market. My opinion is another spurt up. It's true that the Y2K talk was just ever so slightly more pronounced, but it wasn't the type that we are talking about, as Bill said. It had more to do with technology lockdowns or sales decreases. This isn't it...just a correction.

FAmous last words, but it's my best guess.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 20, 1999.



I have my suspicions that Joe Kernan "Gets It" (to a degree) but can't say tooo much on air. They looked scared, shook-up and evasive when someone mentioned y2k on their show last night.

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), July 21, 1999.

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