Reflections on the Childish Mind

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The human child thinks poorly in many respects, and will hopefully learn to think well during the process of growing up. But as we all know, some adults retain childish habits of thought.

One mark of the childish mind in an adult body is an intolerance for ambiguity. Thus we have recently been informed by Y2K Pro that no one is going to die as a result of Y2K, informed with the certainty of someone wired to the mind of God. On the other side of the argument, I have been informed with equal certainty that if I don't move out of my house I will surely DIE, and die as an asshole (to use this great thinker's favorite word). You see, I live within easy strolling distance of a 7-11.

The evidence seems to me to be accumulating that after Jan.1, 2000, we will be coping with a very large mess. For one thing, the time available for testing remediated systems, for many organizations, is just ludicrously small. How large the mess is likely to be, I just don't know and neither does anyone else.

If we do encounter a bump in the road, I would guess (don't know for sure) that it will be a very severe bump. The sort that (to continue the metaphor) would knock all the wheels of the car out of alignment.

-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), July 20, 1999

Answers

That is correct Peter, ya might want to rethink that 7-eleven location.

"We don't even know yet what we don't know about how Y2K will affect defense systems, the latest estimates say only twenty-nine percent of our mission-critical systems are now Y2K-compliant."

These remarks were made by retired Lt. Gen. Albert J. Edmonds, former director of the Defense Information Systems Agency, during the annual national defense conference last Fall.

WOW.....amazingly speedy progress in a matter of 9 months, huh? To go from clueless to "I'm OK if you're OK". You'd better be deciding how to protect your own 7-eleven.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 20, 1999.


Ever hear the expression, "childish faith"? Small children have the greatest faith that everything will be all right, as long as Dad and Mom are there, and say so. It is heartwarming, it is cute, but it is ... childish.

Pollys have the greatest faith that everything will be all right as long as the government and the media say so. This is neither cute nor heartwarming; rather, it is irresponsible. And it is also childish.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 20, 1999.

Yo, your highness. As your handle indicates, you too are childish, wishing as you might in some fantasy to be a King. And I would also assume that you have "faith" that Eddie Yourgod is right about his prediction of a 10 year depression. Afterall, he's been right so far in his 1999 predictions. Try thinking for yourself.

And thanks Will for posting a comment that's out-of-date. We need to be reminded of the past status of Y2K for we wouldn't realize just how far we've come.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 20, 1999.


The evidence is that most companies and governments started their work too late. Yessir, they are scrambling right now to get it all done. Many have been successful. Many have not. Others--and there is evidence for this, too--have either lied about compliance or only done slipshod testing of compliance.

I'll place my bet on the idea that the vast majority of companies-- 90%--did enough remediation and should be able to squeek by in one way or another. (Probably half of these survivors will have problems which will make their operation less efficient.) However, ten percent are going to be toast by the middle of 00, unable to function.

These ten percent may be absorbed into other companies, or they may kick their employees onto the street at the outset. I cannot begin to imagine the systemic effects of a rapid onslaught of businesses failing here. They could be pretty damn bad, resulting in severe recession or mild depression. I doubt that power and water will universally go out or that a nuke plant's going to melt down here, but that does not mean that the "golden triangle" of modern infrastructure is going to be immune from trouble of a more-long-term sort.

You might have to consider the global picture. Most reasonable people anticipate kinks and stopgaps in critical nodes of foreign trade (such as petroleum and manufactured goods) due to y2k. This will make a bad situation worse. How are freight trains going to deliver coal when they can't afford to carry it due to an expected spike in the price of diesel?

Yes, it is true that there are mitigating factors to y2k that might well make it only a "bump in the road." But my my, it's going to be one hell of a bump any way you look at it. Don't have your tongue in between your teeth when you hit that bump or you're libel to have to get it sewn back on...and for heaven's sake do not be hung over when you hit that bump, either. I wonder why other people aren't taking y2k seriously. I've wondered about it all along. Childlike thinking? Perhaps. But I just think it's more a facet of human nature. Most of us simply don't like bad news and hate the prospect of Change. We want to keep being fat and happy, and have enough trouble to worry about as it is. Sorry to tell you, but change is a-whoopin' around the bend. You can either roll with the punches it's going to give you or you can stand there, stiff, and get yourself KO'ed.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), July 20, 1999.


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