Not only do we face problems unknown from Y2K related failures, but we will create unknown numbers of additional failures as we try to react to the Y2K induced failures.

From a two digit date field to The End of The World As We Know It? Will there be catastophic failures as a result of Y2K?

If you think that a global common mode failure can be effectively mitigated by a species that allowed itself to be in this predicament in the first place, then you haven't read.....

The Logic of Failure - Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations by Dietrich Dorner

Highly recommended to both polly and doomer alike.

The following are some excerpts:

"What kind of psycology do we find here. We find a tendency, under time pressure, to apply overdoses of established measures. We find an inability to think in terms of nonlinear networks of causation-an inability, that is, to properly assess the side effects and repercussions of one's behavior. We find an inadequate understanding of exponential development, an inability to see that a process that develops exponentially will, once it has begun, race to its conclusion with incredible speed. These are all mistakes on cognition."

"We often speak of human failure in connection with the Chernobyl disaster and with other catastophes or close calls. There are many meanings of the word "failure," and surely the team of Reactor 4 at Chernobyl failed when their reactor exploded. But if we think of failure as meaning that someone did not perform a task that he should have performed and if we look at the individual elements of behavior that ultimately produced the accident at Chernobyl, we cannot find a single example of failure."

"In the behavior of Chernobyl's operators we find many of the traits that characterized the participants in the Tanaland and Greenvale experiments: difficulty in managing time, difficulty in evaluating exponentially developing processes, and difficulty in assessing side effects and long-term repercussions, that is, a tendancy to think in terms of isolated cause-and-effect relationships."

"Tanaland, Greenvale, Chernobyl-when we look beyond their peculiar features, we find that they have much in common. All are complicated systems that derive their complexity from the presence of many interrelated variables. All are, at least in part, "intransparent": one cannot see everything one would like to see. And all develop independent of external control, according to their own internal dynamic. In addition, the people we saw attempt to solve problems in these systems-experiment participants or reactor operators-did not fully understand the systems; indeed, they made false assumptions about them."

"The characteristics we find here-complexity, intransparence, internal dynamics, and incomplete or incorrect understanding of the of the system-are basic to all intricate situations in which individuals are called upon to plan and act carefully, and they place many specific demands on decision makers."

-- MarktheFart (quke@ix.netcom.com), July 18, 1999

Answers

Funny you should mention nuclear reactors. Since the 1979 TMI accident there havn't been any new reactors built. Hmm, I guess people aren't as stupid as Dietrich thinks.

-- (who knows@who .cares?), July 18, 1999.

Funny you should mention nuclear reactors. Since the 1979 TMI accident there havn't been any new reactors built. Hmm, I guess people aren't as stupid as Dietrich thinks.

-- (who knows@who .cares?), July 18, 1999.

------------------------------------------------ Quite a few nukes were completed and went online after TMI...

-- Bob Brock (bbrock@i-america.net), July 18, 1999.

A two digit date field standard right up to 1997 isn't stupid?

-- MarktheFart (quke@ix.netcom.com), July 18, 1999.

Um, WHERE can we find the text of Dorner's article?

Thanks.

-- alan (foo@bar.com), July 18, 1999.

Mike

We may soon find out how complex systems respond (or don't) in the near future regardless of "opinions" held by the dilettants of any vocation you may choose.

I have been in electrical control, security and related syetsm for over 250 years and almost no one in the installation field knows about component level circuitry, internal chips and thier operation. Most circuit boards either simply plug in or are hardwired with an external wire wookup diagram. It either works or is replaced.

When large scale system fail, it is difficult to even find a starting refernce point at which to begin diagnosis. Documentation is often inadequate, or lost. Without proper information, remedies take longer than usual, and thats when all things are up and running (i.e. phones, staff at the manufacturer's end(tech support), power and other services.

I haven't read "Logic of Failure" yet, but plan to

regards,

Bob P Lic #11234 NJ

-- Bob P (rpilc99206@aol.com), July 18, 1999.

Well Mark, looks like all these are examples of people seeing trees, and not seeing the forest.

In the 19th century there was a philosophical movement known as "rationalism". It's main claim to fame was its ability to reduce every concept down to its fundamentals. Cause and effect were reduced ad absurdum to a completely closed system.

What this means is that EVERYTHING was taken out of context. A tree could be cut down, and observed, but the effects on its nearby trees was ignored. The tree falling down broke off branches and skinned bark of these trees, but that was a different issue.

Another observer would then look at these broken branches and would surmise that "something" caused the damage, but was unable to "look around" and see the fresh stump, and the similar damage to adjacent trees.

The same is quite true about software engineering with respect to remediation. The individual pieces parts are defined within an inch of their lives, and the overall architecture is not able to be understood by most.

Jolly rambles too much.

-- Jollyprez (jolly@prez.com), July 18, 1999.

Mark, good post. Long time, no see. Enjoyed our phone conversation a few months back. Trust all is well with you and yours, how is your Dad doing? Is he prepared? Warm Regards

-- Watcher5 (anonn@anon.com), July 18, 1999.

***********MAN PROPOSES-----GOD DISPOSES****************

-- who,s in control? (dogs@zianet.com), July 18, 1999.

Once again: WHERE can we find the text of Dorner's article?

-- alan (foo@bar.com), July 18, 1999.

Alan,

The Logic of Failure is a book, first published in Germany in the late '80s, then in English translation a few years ago. It is available at Barnes and Noble, and other booksellers. Agreeing with Mark, it is a very good read.

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), July 18, 1999.

Information on Dorner's book from Amazon.com:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0201479486/qid=932347854/sr=1- 1/002-4525165-8835624

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 18, 1999.

Watcher5,

I think by now everyone has made up their minds as to what may or may not happen 5 months from now. I think we will see a mild panic last week in December. The good times have been going on for so long now that most people will take minimal steps in preps. Its just unfathomable for most to see anything more than a "bump in the road."

Groupthink on a global scale. Speaking of which.....

"The tendancy of a group of experts *NERC comes to mind* to reinforce one another's conviction that they are doing everything right, the tendency to let pressure to conform suppress self-criticism within the group-this is what Irving Janis identified as the great danger of "groupthink" in teams of political decision makers such as Kennedy's adviser's before the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion."

Logic of Failure pg.34

-- MarktheFart (quke@ix.netcom.com), July 18, 1999.