Well... 7/1/99 came and went, where are the problems?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Yourdon said The FY 2000 that starts on 7/1/99 was supposed to be a big deal, and... nothing.So you doomers said, "give it two weeks and see what happens"... and nothing.
Well, how many more times will you turn your back to the truth that the predictions just are not happening??
This isn't about who knows what the future will hold. This is about knowing that the things you fear are NOT happening.
CAN ANYONE HERE TELL ME WHY 7/1/99 CAME AND WENT WITHOUT SO MUCH AS ONE SINGLE HEADLINE?????
These stupid posts keep coming about how scared everyone is and yet there is no reason to be. There are no horrific reports, no catastrophic events.... nothing! The nukes aren't shutting down, the credit cards work, the airline reservations are being made. No problems. Your all just scared little doomers who fell prey to the Millenial Madness.
-- (doomers@suck.com), July 16, 1999
Are you from Missouri???sleepin'...
The Dog
-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 16, 1999.
OK, then you can leave us to our pathetic delusions and get back to your real life.
-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 16, 1999.
Yes......there is nothing to worry about. It is OK.
BJ Clinton feels our pain.
The Dow is over 11,000.
-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), July 16, 1999.
Hey --,Listen carefully. I'll say it again, for the "slow" people out there.
It's called the Y2K bug, not the sometime in 99 bug. Got it?
-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), July 16, 1999.
Right. No problem. We were wrong. Thanks for dropping by.
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 16, 1999.
Trolls,You all piss me off.
The world does not have to end for me to care about it. I like my community. I have just bought a house. I have a growing family. I want very much to be able to enjoy it and a percieved threat is to be dealt with.
If you don't percieve a threat then continue to listen to the lulling media.
Koskienen himself neglected to answer the question as to how the Media, you so love and need, should portray Y2K.
KOSKINEN JUST WANTS PEOPLE TO BE "COMFORTABLE" SO THERE IS NO PANIC!!!!!!
If that isn't dirty then mabey you should get a clue
b
-- b (b@b.b), July 16, 1999.
[Begin rubber stamp mode]THE NUMBER OF PROGRAMS THAT DO LOOK-AHEAD PROCESSING IS TINY WHEN COMPARED TO THE TOTAL (IE. MAINFRAME - PC - EMBEDDED SYSTEM) NUMBER OF PROGRAMS THAT HAVE A DATE PROBLEM. THESE PROGRAMS WOULD BE FIXED FIRST, BECAUSE THEY ARE NEEDED FIRST!
[End rubber stamp mode]
They call it the Y2K problem for a good reason, not the various dates in 1999 problem. <:)=
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999.
I don't recall Ed Yourdon predicting big problems due to July 1st. For more information on fiscal year rollovers, accounting software, the Jo Anne Effect, and a comment made by Ed Yourdon in March about April 1st, see the following thread:http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f
"Significance of States Fiscal Start"
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 16, 1999.
this is rich! In the Fall of '98 everyone was saying how the Euro was going to be a pre-cursor of y2k problems -- result? big fat nothing!"embedded" problems were going to start surfacing and the "guru's" of y2k fear-mongering made definitive statements on what would happen (I won't bore you with the actual quotes) -- result? big fat nothing!
The JAE was supposed to take effect and begin a "snowball" that no onw could hide by now -- result? big fat nothing!
In april the Chernobyl virus took out the biggest number of systems EVER to date in asia (should have been a nice example of systemic failure) -- result? big fat nothing!
NONE of the power companies were supposed to "make it" because they all "started too late"; today we have massive compliance statements!
This continues with Banking, JIT, Shipping, etc etc etc,
All the pessimists can say now is "they call it the y2k bug for a reason"
Puh-leese! what will you say in feb. or mar. of 2000? or 2001?
"they call it the unix date problem for a reason"? (HINT: This gives you a headstart on fear-mongering in the late 2030's)
-- Incredulous (at@the.bad logic of some), July 16, 1999.
Any problems that occur in 1999 can either be hidden or fixed, there is plenty of time to fix specific problems before 2000, trouble is companies who have not fixed y2k may be overwhelmed with errors that simply disrupt their whole operationI know having worked on y2k that many errors could be fixed individually, I know that there would not have bee time to fix them all
No one can possibly predict the extent of errors that will affect companies as a whole
-- dick of the dale (rdale@coynet.com), July 16, 1999.
"I don't recall Ed Yourdon predicting big problems due to July 1st."You "don't recall"??? BWWWWAHHHAAAAHHHHAAAA!!!!
Here you go! ONE PLATE OF STEAMING HOT CROW, COMING UP!!!
"... I believe we'll start seeing [disruptions] by this summer, and I believe they'll continue for at least a year. As many people are now aware, 46 states (along with Australia and New Zealand) will begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year on July 1, 1999; New York (and Canada) will already have gone through their Y2K fiscal rollover on April 1, and the remaining three states begin their new fiscal year on August 1, September 1, and October 1. We also have the GPS rollover problem to look forward to on August 22nd, as well as the Federal government's new fiscal year on October 1st.
There is, of course, some finite probability that all of these rollover events will occur without any problems; but there's also a finite probability that pigs will learn to fly."
-- Ed Yourdon
BBBBBWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHAAAAAHHHHAAHHHAAHHHAAA!!!!!
-- Hunting Crow (tofeed@the.doomers), July 16, 1999.
Also April 1 prediction"On January 1, 1999 they will experience many more, and it will be much more difficult to sweep them under the rug. On April 1, 1999 we will all watch anxiously as the governments of Japan and Canada, as well as the state of New York, begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year; at that moment, the speculation about Y2K will end, and we will have tangible evidence of whether governmental computer systems work or not."
-- Ed Yourdone
-- Hunting Crow (tofeed@the.doomers), July 16, 1999.
It won't be long now.
Be sure to put on the Death Certificate that the cause of death was SMUGNESS of the Parent!
-- z. z (z@z.com), July 16, 1999.
Listen genius, I've said since my first day on this forum that these 1999 dates are a bunch of BS, a drop in the bucket. If I'm wrong about Y2K, I'll happily eat all the crow that you can find. But if you are wrong, you may very well be eating dust. Have a nice life. <:)=
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999.
Crow,Do you really think that if a company/state were having problems they would advertise it? I can see it now
"Our unemployment check disbursal system crashed horribly. Let's issue a press release telling everyone how screwed up we are..."
No, what happens is that they try like hell to cover it up and keep things going. In January, there will be too many problems to cover up. Actually, I think the MAJOR problems, the OPERATIONAL problems, will start coming to light (ie. can't be covered up) sometime in late Oct, early Nov. If your budget system is screwed up for dates past 1/1/00 it doesn't affect how you run your business today. I bet lots of these systems are failing now, but have no affect on the day to day operations of the overall system. In January, they will.
-TECH32-
-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), July 16, 1999.
1) If a problem CAN be covered up, it will. This does NOT imply correction of the problem.
2) Problems will NOT be advertised, for OBVIOUS reasons. This does NOT imply non-existence of problems.
3) How many cities are ready??
4) What percentage of the Federal systems have been TESTED?
5) WHat percentage of the vendor claims of compliance are turning out to be "Not exactly"?
NIGHT TRAIN
-- Night Train Lane (nighttr@in.lane), July 16, 1999.
yu's better prepare cause Jesus know,s who yu,s is
-- yu's doomer (dogs@zianet.com), July 16, 1999.
Dear Incredulous,You wrote:
"NONE of the power companies were supposed to "make it" because they all "started too late"; today we have massive compliance statements!"
All I have read concerning the power companies is statements saying 'y2k ready.'
Please supply links to the statements of 'compliance' that you refer to...
Thank you.
-- J (jart5@bellsouth.net), July 16, 1999.
Are you deaf and blind or are you deliberately trying to mislead newcomers to this forum?
This does not include the Washington pipeline explosion, the Van Nuys sewage overflow or the Peach Bottom nuclear power plant test failure.
-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 16, 1999.
As I said, I don't recall Ed Yourdon predicting that July 1st would cause big problems. And this is what he had to say about April 1st on March 28:http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000f20
First a question and then Ed's reply:
[snip]
Will something really happen or just another April Fool's Day?
greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
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Okay, guys, here's the $64 question. We all know April 1 is another drop dead day: fiscal Year rollovers for Japan, Canada and the state of NY (with the UK soon to follow, on April 6). So, what will happen? Will NY state pensioners suddenly not get their checks, etc. etc. Is this something serious or another red herring BS non-event. You folks with experience in programing these systems need to speak up on this. Ed, maybe you could chip in on this one. Thanks, everyone... Sandmann
-- Novacop (Sandmann@alasbab.com), March 28, 1999
Answers
Response to Wii something really happen or just another April Fool's Day?
Well, we know that it won't have any impact on embedded systems -- so we're not going to see any failures of process control systems, refineries, utilities, or things of that sort.
It also means that we're not going to see problems in PC BIOS chips or non-compliant PC operating systems.
The problems will exist in application programs that are aware of, and make use of, the end-date of the fiscal year, i.e., March 31, 2000. Thus, we're almost certainly talking about financial systems, tax systems, etc. It's likely to have the greatest impact on report- writing programs that spew out spreadsheet-looking reports with rows and columns of numbers, showing budget figures for all 12 months of the fiscal year.
Several people have argued that we probably won't see any problems in the day-to-day transaction-processing systems, e.g., the systems that process daily receipts and daily disbursements of funds. However, if there are any logic-checks that ask questions like, "Is this disbursement legitimate within the context of a full fiscal year?", THAT could cause problems.
As with most other aspects of Y2K, the bottom line is that we really don't know where and how the problems will hit. What's fairly obvious, given the experience from the Euro rollover, is that any minor or modest problems will be hidden pretty well within the bureaucracy. However, if it causes something comparable to the NJ food-stamp problem (yes, yes, I know that the officials have now described that problem as a non-Y2K problem), then it will be hard to cover up. If a hundred thousand retired civil service workers don't get their monthly pension check, you'll definitely see it on the evening news program.
It will be interesting to see how it turns out...
Ed
-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), March 28, 1999.
[snip]
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 16, 1999.
I hate to waste ammo on these assholes that are to lazy to research thing for themselves but,,,, Just one shot. Euro = 50 some million errors so far..... will cost $210 billion to fix. You find the news release moron. Yep nooooooooooo problems with the Euro conversion. ASS!
-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), July 16, 1999.
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f[snip]
Few worries about cut-over
Benzen said there were few problems because the fiscal year date is used in most states' systems only to label data or documents, not as a key computational input. In contrast, the calendar year date is critical for computing and tracking values indicating such things as Medicaid eligibility. For that reason, said Benzen, few state information technology officials were worried about the fiscal year cut-over.
"I forgot we changed the fiscal year until I got in this morning," he said.
Because the fiscal and calendar dates are used so differently, Benzen said, the ease with which states coped with yesterday's change doesn't mean they'll be as successful on Jan. 1, 2000. "This is no predictor of what will happen on January 1," he said. "You can't reach a valid conclusion based on what happened with the fiscal year change."
[snip]
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 16, 1999.
The Euro:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-9546755
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 16, 1999.
As Ed said, the Euro errors and problems are being hid internally for obvious reasons. AND the results are being felt worldwide. The whole reason gold has declining prices is to hold up the FAILING Euro.Let's see....did embedded chips rollover on July 1st?
-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 16, 1999.
I'm a Cobol programmer who has done y2k work. I've been an IT professional for nearly 20 years. Probably the reason why we haven't heard of any failures is because fiscal year programs were worked on first. I would also say fiscal year programs are smaller systems when compared to the production systems. It only makes sense to fix fiscal programs first. I had my fiscal year programs revised, tested and implemented by 1997. My y2k work as a whole didn't get completed until Jan 1999. Fixes are still going on. We're finding some problems with the server. My Cobol work is done, because I didn't stay in denial. I jumped right on it in 1994 and I began writing compliant code in 1990 while the other (no problem) programmers were writing non-compliant code (which I had to fix later to make it compliant). Had I not done my fixes on time I can tell you things would be blowing up this very minute. Having said that, I'm still impressed by the state's good news, if indeed there really are no failures. We really don't know what's happened since we don't have inside news. Even if totally true, this still hasn't stopped my own personal contingency planning. I simply know better. A Fiscal year 2000 non-event doesn't equate to the overall status of y2k compliance. This doesn't mean that I expect TEOTWAWKI, I'm just making preparations just in case. There are many other issues that bother me besides y2k. Just to name a few, we have solar storms coming in 2000, in addition to all of this 130 viruses are coming, 12 of them will be malicious. This is also a good opportunity for terrorists to do some nasty work. I'm afraid of many other issues as well. Call it doom and gloom if you like, I don't give a hoot. These are facts that we can't deny. I hope they don't happen. My life is on the good side, so I don't want these things to happen. However, I must be realistic. It just makes sense to prepare with these risks lurking. I'm preparing for hard times. If it turns out to be nothing more than a bump in the road, then I'll just have extra food and supplies. So what? However, if it turns out bad and I'm not prepared, then what? I think this is the whole point.
-- Y2K Programmer (cobol.programmer@usa.net), July 16, 1999.
"It only makes sense to fix fiscal programs first."Thank you for confirming what I have been saying all along! <:)))=
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999.
Ya gotta love Doomer logic. For the last year, all we heard from said Doomers was how bad it was going to be in April and July. The stock market will crash - people will start to panic, no one will be able to ignore it. Specific and definitive dates and actions were postulated. When nothing happened, these same Doomers have backped aled so fast they got whiplash. Are there no Doomers who will step forward and admit they were wrong? Anyone?April 1, 1999. On this date, Canada, Japan, and the State of New York begin their fiscal year. This will, of course, include dates beyond Y2K. As a result, planning systems, especially budgets that have not been repaired will fail as they attempt to process Y2K dates. Since New York City is the media capitol of the world, problems there will grab headlines worldwide. Problems in Japan will remind everyone again of how interconnected our world is. The Japanese will also be forced to admit that there systems might not make it. I expect the stock market to react and begin (or continue) its downward spiral. Public confidence will continue to wane and the number of Y2K optimists will continue to dwindle.
July 1, 1999. On this date, forty-four U.S. states begin their fiscal years. The problems that began in New York will now spread exponentially across the country and around the world. The public will feel the global and pervasive nature of the Y2K Problem for the first time. This will be further exacerbated by the fact that many states have not had the resources to adequately address their Millennium Bug problems. Consequently, the failures will be real and widespread.
From the 12 Oct 1998 issue of Westergaard - Michael Hyatt
-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 16, 1999.
Hey all, I work for the guverment. Can't say which dept, or my _ss might get fried. But listen up. All our processing work for Jan/Feb/March 2000 will be handled in Nov/Dec 1999. Officially, we're compliant. But makes you wonder how confident our programmers are, eh? A little hint. The dept. I work for, if it goes down, will bring major chaos to society. Flame away pollies, but the truth is the truth.DOWNtheROAD
-- DOWNtheROAD (foo@foo.com), July 16, 1999.
reppohw rJ eht ro reppohw eht referp I fi ksa elpoep fo stoL
-- orP K2Y (146@2.com), July 16, 1999.
Y'all miss the point regarding these predictions.Try and pretend that Yourdon, Hyatt, North, et al, didn't predict major problems for these dates if you like. Their statements are recorded. (Nice thing about the 'Net)
The point is the "over-hyping" of these dates. No doubt, IF nothing had been done, problems would have occurred. And I'm sure some problems did occur. But they were dealt with. Why is it so easy to believe that these problems could be fixed and dealt with on time, but the rest cannot?
But, probably the greatest effect of this over-hyping has been the almost complete loss of credibility of those making the statements. No, not among the faithful; but among the "sheeples", to steal a doomer term. And is it any wonder? Y'all bemoan the lack of awareness regarding Y2k, and the "denial" of the public. But they see dates such as these come and go, with no general effects, after so much hype. Why should they believe anything else?
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), July 16, 1999.
no Pro, not a single one.
-- (doomersDO@suck.com), July 16, 1999.
Y2K pro do they call you "cut and paste" at Burger King too?
-- Ronald (RonaldMcDonald@bigmac.com), July 16, 1999.
Ronald, go look in the mirror, take off the tinfoil hat and repeat after me:I am a Doomer idiot with not a shred of common sense"
Repeat ten times and then come back here and re-read. Then Try and offer something concrete without forging my address...
-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 16, 1999.
I damn bet you can't have it your way when you order a Big King from Y2K Pro.....
-- lisa (lisa@work.now), July 16, 1999.
Y2K Pro, you really have _hit for brains. Nuff said.DOWNtheROAD
-- DOWNtheROAD (foo@foo.com), July 16, 1999.
Proof? And this is coming from the man who has a patent on cut and copy. Good golly Jethro, if you are so sure that Y2K is nothing then what in the hell are you posting here for hillbilly!
-- Ronald (RonaldMcDonald@bigmac.com), July 16, 1999.
My professional license was 2 weeks late after renewal in June. So I called this morning to ask why and the person there told me because of the computers. They have given a grace period till July 31st, so I can still operate w/o a license (Md.)
-- KoFE (your@town.USA), July 16, 1999.
Long, boring story here.I started preparing in earnest in mid-1997 because a case was being made (by IT people, North and Milne) that the dreaded '99' problem would strike when FY99 hit, which would start early in 1998. THEN, we would really start to see fur flying.
Early in April of last year, we all (at csy2k) sat on pins and needles waiting for the 'inevitable' collapse of New York, UK, Japan, WalMart and other soverign entitites. Our vigil went unrewarded.
Now, these people made a very good case that trouble couldn't be avoided -- many of them had written the offending code in the first place, after all. Who would know better. And these same people 'knew' that their own bugs would wreak havoc on 1/1/99, and on 4/1/99. And by this time, they were joined by such august personages as Ed Yourdon, Capers Jones, and the like. Add the Euro to the mix, and we were well and truly hosed. Even some Euro programmers chimed in with credible predictions of Big Trouble.
Now, of course, Sysman, Hamasaki and others with great hindsight have explained why those dates were all false alarms, but the Big One is still coming, bet on it. They started reminding me of the old joke that an economist is paid twice -- once to tell you what will happen, and again to explain why it didn't.
Meanwhile we have essentially NO reported problems overseas with these dates. OK, it's possible that the IT people are now right, and these errors are a combination of too kludgeable and too infrequent to amount to much. This is entirely reasonable. What's disturbing is that the IT experts now explaining away the lack of problems *didn't know it* until the problems didn't happen.
And let's face it, (ignoring the loonies in the boonies for now), the most credible source of solid grounding for problems late this year/early next year is these *same people*. THIS time, they tell us, it really will be the Big One. They wrote the code, they know where the bodies are buried, sorry about the false alarms, trust us, we know what we're talking about.
So OK, guys, I trust you again. We'll have newsworthy problems, they won't be kludgeable, they won't be hideable, they won't be trivial. Now what's this little voice in the back of my mind, telling me that maybe, just maybe, you've exaggerated the real-world importance of what you do for a living. Can it be possible that there just might be a whole lot more slop in the system than you realize? Nahhhh....
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 16, 1999.
Remember...."If your attack is going really well, it is an ambush!"
-Murphy's Laws of Combat
-- (snowleopard6@webtv.net), July 16, 1999.
Hi to all, personally I have dreaded the rollover dates since last year and I am glad that so far not much SEEMS to be happening.I do feel like our country is playing a game of russian roulette with Y2K and so far the chambers have been empty.The real question - is there a bullet in the gun? This is why the doomers( I guess I count as one ) are concerned.If the doomers are wrong,big deal,if the pollys are wrong,we all lose.
-- Stanley Lucas (stanleylucas@webtv.com), July 16, 1999.
Stanley:That gets old. If the rainbow is black, those who didn't prepare lose. If the rainbow is white, everyone wins. Now, is the rainbow black or white?
Ask a stupid question, and even time won't answer it.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 16, 1999.
Flint,I guess I should be honored that you mentioned me before Cory, but I am not. You know my motto, "they call it Y2K for a good reason." I really am getting sick of this "1999 dates" bullshit. There are no Y2K "experts." Nobody has any experience, with all due respect to Mr. Yourdon. The best anyone can do is guess, based on their past programming experience. Cut the crap with the "great hindsight." You know I have always believed that the "1999 problem" is bogus. Look again at what Y2K Programmer said.
[Begin rubber stamp mode]
THE NUMBER OF PROGRAMS THAT DO LOOK-AHEAD PROCESSING IS TINY WHEN COMPARED TO THE TOTAL (IE. MAINFRAME - PC - EMBEDDED SYSTEM) NUMBER OF PROGRAMS THAT HAVE A DATE PROBLEM. THESE PROGRAMS WOULD BE FIXED FIRST, BECAUSE THEY ARE NEEDED FIRST!
[End rubber stamp mode]
What don't you understand about this? Please, tell me! <:)=
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 16, 1999.
But they see dates such as these come and go, with no general effects, after so much hype. Why should they believe anything else?Hoffmeister,
The passage of these dates hasn't stopped the government from recently issuing advice like the following:
http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/bigstory/070199/main.html
[snip]
Y2K: Prepare early for a week of woes
State says you should put aside water, food and a little cashBy Ron Martz
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff WriterFederal and state officials, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Red Cross and the Georgia Emergency Management Agency are urging everyone to have a three- to five-day supply of food and water on hand and enough emergency supplies such as warm clothing, blankets, flashlights and an alternative heating source to tide them over should there be problems as a result of Y2K.
[snip]
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 16, 1999.
How do you know there arent any problems yet??? My sister in another state just received a check for over 2,000.00 she has no idea what for, it is from the welfare dept, and guess what? She knows its an error, cashed the check anyhow and bought a vehicle....I am not agreeing this was the right thing to do, maybe they will catch it, or maybe they wont...Maybe it is a glitch because it came shortly after the fiscal rollover for her state, but maybe it isnt....IF it is, how many others out there will do the same?????? MANY WILL>....We simply cant tell yet what is going on with the roll, now can we? I spoke with a woman who heads our county programs here in Ohio and guess what she told me? We be in 'bad' shape...they have scheduled her to be at work on 12-31 at 11:00 because they arent sure of transportation problems which may occur. They will have armed guards there while these programmers sit and wait...Scared? They are even providing food for the employees, and port a pots....BTW...they have recently ordered generators too. HMMMMMMM....bet they wont get those in time?
-- consumer (private@aol.com), July 17, 1999.
Sysman:OK, that's a good question and I'll try to give it a good answer. This is before-coffee this morning, so bear with me.
Nobody (except Milne and North) really gave any credibility to the '99' problem, because nobody knew of any. But not knowing, it remained possible, and as (I think) you and I agree, it doesn't take many Big Bugs in just the wrong places to cause havoc.
On the other hand, everyone seems to agree that the '00' problem is *not* purely a function of the rollover of the calendar, but rather a function of software encountering, and mishandling, a date in the next century -- whenever that might happen. Accordingly, this includes more than programs that do lookaheads. Accounting programs that have transitioned to FY00 are dealing with such dates as being in the 'virtual' present. People like Yourdon and Hamasaki were making the argument that the frequency with which software would encounter such dates would rise dramatically during 1999, for a wide variety of reasons. Gartner's projected dramatic rate rise was to have begin July 1.
From all indications, then, IT systems were (still are?) expected to be handling dates into the next century routinely by the time the calender actually changes. The 'spike' at rollover itself is supposed to be confined mostly to two categories -- embeddeds working with very short time frames (minutes or less), and IT systems handling current transactions (with a half-life of 3 days to a week?)
In any case, there would appear to be several reasonable factors contributing to the remarkable paucity of problems thus far (not counting bungled tests):
1) The rate at which software is encountering dates in the next century remains extremely low at this time (your position?);
2) Most date bugs turn out to have a smaller impact on operations than was feared;
3) Most date bugs are more easily repaired than was feared;
4) Remediation, while less than complete, has been largely successful*
*Footnote: A great deal of discussion over the last 2+ years has dealt with prioritizing remediation tasks. We looked at business systems versus embedded systems, critical systems versus noncritical systems, key suppliers versus multi-source suppliers, etc. Nowhere did *anyone* talk about selectively remediating bugs with a closer horizon to impact, until *after* we didn't have those impacts. While it may be the case that programs with lookaheads were placed into the 'critical systems' category, this was never made explicit. So forgive me for being a bit suspicious of post facto observations that "of course we did these first, we just never bothered to mention it before."
Anyway, it seems to me that our ability to deal adequately with 00 dates up to this time is a good sign. Just how good a sign, is the issue. Do you feel that all four (and any more you may wish to add) reasons I've listed above are contributory? Or are all but the first really irrelevant? I really don't know. As I said earlier, all I really know is that some extremely knowledgeable and experienced people have been fooled. I'm wondering just how this came to be.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 17, 1999.