Why three days? Time for a dope slap?

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I may be about to do a "dope slap."

I've been thinking about the three day storm analogy, and why--if the government really thinks it may be worse than that--they wouldn't advise us to prepare for a longer period of time.

Yeah, I've heard some of the answers:

1. Many people can't afford to prepare for longer than that.

2. It takes three days for emergency assistance to arrive.

I wonder, though, if there is a third reason, and if so, it's the REAL reason:

3. To admit we could be in for deep doo doo, would be the same thing as announcing to all enemies of the U.S., foreign and domestic, that we're about to become an easy target, and in the national interest, the risks associated with making that kind of announcement are greater than the risks of having an unprepared citizenry. (Sort of the lesser of the two "devils.")

Your opinions?

-- readytoslap (my@dopeyhead.maybe), July 10, 1999

Answers

Banks.

If they tell you 2 - 3 days, then there is no hurry to prepare. After you get your Christmas shopping done and wrapped, you'll lay in some smoked salmon and cheese and crackers and pick up a couple gallons of water along with your champaign bottles... oh yeah... and swing by the ATM and get a hundred bucks or so to tide you over any glitches "rollover weekend".

Main thing that does is buys time. Time for Bill Gates to finish preps on that island we hear he has (anyone know where?). Time for a few more articles telling you too how you can make a bundle on those glamorous internet stocks (while the CEO's of the Fortune 500 (and GWB) are sell, sell, selling. Time to put the finishing touches on those big city underground command bunkers. Time for the Nat. Guard to practice their urban warfare "games" so they are ready to answer requests for service after Sept. 1st. Just a little more time please to carry on with the status quo, because...

What would happen if they told you how few companies had been certified *compliant* as of July 1st? What if they told you how few utilities had been independently tested and found *compliant* (without exceptions) as of July 1st? What if they told you the same thing about banks? What if they named names?

What if they told you that EVERYONE should make "contingency plans" to be self sufficient for at least 2 months of "glitches".

Store shelves might get a bit bare. Which would make one tend to think they maybe shouldn't wait until the end of the year to get that $100... and maybe they shouldn't leave their money in a bank at all.

You wouldn't have to wait for the terrorists to strike. They already know the weaknesses, and have made whatever plans they will. Its not the terrorists they are afraid of... its the terror. They only thing "they" fear is fear itself.... its bad for business.. bad for banks.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 10, 1999.


Our foes ALREADY know we're in deep doo-doo, hence the concerns about terrorism.

I think the reason .gov hasn't come out and told the truth is panic. If they came out and admitted it now you'd have 6 months of panic vs. 6-8 weeks later this year. Keeping it together as long as possible is going to go a long way in how much 'social momentum' Y2K picks up. The more momentum, the longer it'll take to get things back in working order.

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), July 10, 1999.


Linda:

Ignoring all the incipient paranoia you exhibit, you should realize that we don't have anything resembling a "certification" industry. Never needed one. And where would such an industry get their certifiers? From "master COBOL in 6 weeks" schools? Would you trust such people to do a good job?

To be effective and reliable, the certification houses (if they existed) would need people *at least* as knowledgeable about what they're certifying as those who work with it every day (and often wrote the code in the first place). Where would such people come from except from the very places they used to work -- which would make the whole effort self-certification in sheeps' clothing anyway.

Gary North understands this very well, which is why he's been hammering away at this red herring for a while. Given your mentality, I'm not surprised you're thoughtlessly buying into it, but sadly it's as poor a reflection on your understanding as the rest of what you wrote.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 10, 1999.


But, Flint,

What's your opinion on the original question?

-- readytoslap (my@dopeyhead.maybe), July 10, 1999.


Insider selling and how to verify!

http://quote.yahoo.com

In the box,type in ticker symbol,hit go or whatever. When your page loads,on the far right,click on "insider".

-- treading litely (rs@marketwatch.com), July 10, 1999.



readytoslap:

I really don't understand what preparing for 3 days might mean. Almost everyone can survive for 3 days even if they have nothing (except a supply of drinking water). One good trip to the grocery store and most families can make it for a week. As Ed Yourdon wrote, there is a phase change at some point beyond which you can't hold your breath, and need scuba gear. So my interpretation is that we're being told *not* to make that phase change. For those who don't (the vast majority), they better hope almost all y2k impacts remain hidden behind the walls of some *very* busy IT shops.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 10, 1999.


If you were to watch who goes grocery shopping every day, you would see that a vast majority of the population, at least in heavily populated areas, stop every evening on the way home from work. Not very many people choose to stock up on food beyond daily needs. Oh, they may have some basic ingredients like spices, cream soups, sugar/flour, a little rice or potatoes (dry in a box of course), but they usually need meat, eggs, cheese, milk, fresh veggies, etc so they can cook a complete meal. So the gub'ment is telling them that they need to have a 3 day supply because there may be a few gliches that will prevent them from getting into the grocery store everyday . . . just until the bugs are worked out (pun intended :). I have a really GOOD supply of food, at least a years worth and more of some things. But here in Minnesota, if I know there is going to be a bad winter storm blow through, I still go to the store for some of the fresh niceties that I don't want to do without, just in case. It is a secure feeling to have the extra gallon of milk or maybe something special to relieve the cabin fever. It is the comfort zone the gub'ment is trying to achieve. Keep people feeling good and everything will be fine (while they prepare themselves for the worst and will be well out of range when TSHTF).

-- winna (??@??.com), July 10, 1999.

Flint, I agree with your "phase change" theory. But my problem with the approach is that my community (in the chilly north) may not understand that 3 days without heat, especially if the weather drops out, would have required that phase change. I think I officially "got it" when I realized I needed a heavy duty alternative source of heat - the other preps, for me, were all incrementally minor and easy to achieve if just for the very short term. But researching, buying and installing that wood stove (and then stacking the wood) was a major undertaking. To me, three days is SERIOUS stuff if it comes at the wrong time.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), July 10, 1999.

First of all, RUOK, thank you for not believing that I would post this monkey-loving nonsense. I'd like to see it deleted also, but haven't had any success even when I've sent the links to Diane.

Winna: You must have seen families like mine at the store. There's a certain European mentality in my family due to refrigerators being so small over there, I suppose, wherein we'd fallen into the "fresh is best" concept. There's also been a last-minute "taste" theory at play. EVERY time I've shopped in advance and filled the frig or freezer, I'd suggest something for dinner and get a universal "No...I don't FEEL like that tonight. What else do we have?" This democratic process (right or wrong) allowed much food to go to waste.

Flint: I think you're comparing three days of food with three days of NONPERISHABLE food. If the electricity goes out, how long does that ground beef in your refrigerator last? My experience is that it barely lasts three days with the electricity WORKING.

I've commented more on this thought in a response to Bryce in this thread

IF, indeed, we may experience short-term outages AND the stores are still in business, a three-day rule might be a good one (as long as it was replaced after use.) If the previous holds untrue, telling folks NOW to prepare for 3 days and expanding that thought to 5-7 days in another month could mean that folks only need to purchase 3 or 4 days MORE, right? If the period gets extended the FOLLOWING month, folks only need to purchase 3 or 4 days MORE, right? Is my logic correct here, or do we have folks actually budgeting extras EACH month, with no impact on JIT delivery, and the end result folks having at least 15 days of extra non-perishable foodstuffs and water by the end of the year? It's been discussed previously numerous times how many folks live day-to-day and to suggest that they need 2 or 3 months of food is too stunning a concept. If folks are stunned, they'll do NOTHING.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 10, 1999.


I think you've hit it on the head exactly, Anita. And I think they expected to extend it to 2 weeks and then a month, and a few have but the rest are bowing to the government "panic" theory in hopes of holding it together right until the end.

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 10, 1999.


Every time I hear the "3-day" weekend preps advice, I want to throw up! I also live in MN, if we have no heat for 24 HOURS most people would be in severe danger of hypothermia! We also installed a wood stove - it was our 1st priority, knowing how bad January can become. But maybe the gov't is leaving part of their analagy out - maybe we should be comparing it to a 3 day storms AFTERMATH?!?! Hey around here, in this state, it can take a full YEAR to recover from a tornado that's an F-5! Just wondering how long its going to take the folks in OK state to recover from the storms that hit not too long ago. How long was electricity out down there - how long were they without drinkable water - the AFTERMATH is, many times, more severe than the storm itself. But John Q. Public is not thinking this through. When the SHTF, they'll realize the recovery process will be longer than they thought, and it will make for one very long winter. One of the towns here in MN, St. Peter, recently observed their one year anniversary of being hit by an F-5 tornado. There are STILL repairs being made in the town - they have NOT completely recovered yat. Think about it.

-- luann (flataufm@hutchtel.net), July 10, 1999.

Bill gates Y2K Island Paradise

http://www.theage.com.au/daily/980427/news/news20.html

-- dw (y2k@outthere.com), July 10, 1999.


Anita, I agree 100%:

On June 16-17, Ohio Emergency Management Agency Y2K Director advised us to "Expect 3-5 days of outages affecting thousands" and he would not argue with prepping for 10 days to two weeks of self sufficency.

I expect this to increase as time draws closer to rollover. Our next meeting of Volunteer Organizations Active in Disaster (VOAD-Ohio) is August 11, I would not be surprised to see prep advise increased.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 10, 1999.


luann: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 10, 1999.

Linda, your post was right on the mark. Congratulations.

Flint, you are not even making sense lately.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 10, 1999.



History of Conventional wisdom on amount of required y2k preparedness:

Jan 98: Huh?

Jul 98: No problem:

Jan 99: 3 days.

July 99: Two weeks.

Sep 99: One month.

Nov 99: Three months.

Jan 00: ???

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.


To the BOY (who THINKS he's a man) who-would-be-King-of Spain:

The most direct answer to your adolescent quesstion is NO. Perhaps you'd like to try it however with my husband - he weighs about 240 lbs. is nearly 6 feet tall, and has shoulder muscles with the circumference of a large tire. I'm sure he'd be happy to take my place. BTW, just where is your brain located - in your groin?!?!?

-- luann (flataufm@hutchtel.net), July 10, 1999.


And BTW, Flint I believe is currently at the 1 year level, isn't that right Flint? But continue to dissuade others on the severity of what lies ahead Flint. They'll "thank you" later.

-- a (a@a.a), July 10, 1999.

"Linda: Ignoring all the incipient paranoia you exhibit..." - Flint

"I'd recommend not drinking tap water from a few days before rollover until it's known to be safe (maybe a week later). Nor would I trust 'official' reassurances that it's just fine. Once it becomes clear that people aren't getting sick from it, then I'll start drinking it again. Not before." - Flint

"Nor would I trust 'official' reassurances"...????

Sounding a little paranoid yourself Flint. You know, I think you should be careful about hanging out in forums like this. It's catching you know. Do yourself a favor and take a break from all this gloom and doom. I'm too far gone... there's no hope for me. But I worry about YOU. Would hate to see you going all paranoid like the rest of us in the tin-hat brigade. Maybe a nice vacation on Bill Gates Island paradise... a nice LONG vacation.

"Paranoia strikes deep

Into your heart it will creep

It starts when you're always afraid

Step out of line, the Man comes, and take you away."

- - Buffalo Springfield

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 11, 1999.


linda,

i didn't know you could sing. were you at woodstock?

marianne

-- marianne (uranus@nbn.net), July 11, 1999.


3 days makes sence.panic control is all that matters to the gov. Tell the masses 3 days and they'll rationalize that they're already good for 3 days,thus,they need do nothing.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), July 12, 1999.

I attended an emergency preparedness conference where I argued the 3-day issue with prep educators - Red Cross and others. They all confess that they were ready for far more than 3 days, but that if they changed the mantra, the public would be confused. They know it's way worse, but don't want to rock the boat. I told them they were dishonest.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), July 12, 1999.

luann,

does your husband like to mudwrestle?

a sooty smooch to ya.

.

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), July 12, 1999.


luann,

does your husband mudwrestle?

a sooty smooch to ya.

.

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), July 12, 1999.


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