From Russ Kelly website http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html (Sorry if this has been posted previously)

L Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 8.0. December 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.2. April 1999- 6.0. June 1999- 6.0. July 1999- 7.0. Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of working on complex military radar systems. Author of "Synergistic Mitigation and Contingency Preparation"Harlan Smith

(July 1999):

"Lots of good reports but ... Too many loose ends not being tied up. Too much uncertainty about oil supply and foreign supply lines in general. Too much self reporting that successful remediation is at severe risk -- e.g. Washington DC, Ventura County. Too much government and banking propaganda as undesirable replacement for independent audit of progress. Too many news blackouts for areas in trouble -- US Post Office, Department of Veteran's Affairs. Too many deadlines being pushed out to September through November -- US Army Too many superficial tests being run as propaganda ploys -- FAA, NERC Too many real tests unsuccessful -- L. A. sewage and elevator failures. Too many programmers unhappy about progress being made. Too few BCCPs (Business Continuity and Contingency Preparation) plans from federal agencies -- none? Too late amendment to Executive Order establishing 40-person ICC (Information Coordination Center) Too few community action groups, too poorly focused. Too much continuing escalation of federal remediation budget that doesn't even comprehend contingency preparations. Too many foreign countries half awake. Too few met June 30 deadline. Too little understanding of the implications of minor problems -- July 1st start of fiscal year. Too few signs of life from Al Gore, whose presidential campaign depends on Y2K success. Too tepid responses from U.N. and G8. Too much litigation commencing -- GTE suing insurers for $300 million. Too little news on real status of embedded systems problems. Too much secrecy on government preparations -- News blackout on evacuation route signs appearing on Michigan Interstates Too much exaggeration of the problem by "doomers", minimization of the problem by "Happy Faces" and lack of objective factual information by the large majority."

-- fake (fake@out.com), July 08, 1999

Answers

Let me try that again

From Russ Kelly website http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html (Sorry if this has been posted previously)

L Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 8.0. December 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.2. April 1999- 6.0. June 1999- 6.0. July 1999- 7.0. Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of working on complex military radar systems. Author of "Synergistic Mitigation and Contingency Preparation"Harlan Smith

(July 1999):

"Lots of good reports but ... Too many loose ends not being tied up. Too much uncertainty about oil supply and foreign supply lines in general. Too much self reporting that successful remediation is at severe risk -- e.g. Washington DC, Ventura County. Too much government and banking propaganda as undesirable replacement for independent audit of progress. Too many news blackouts for areas in trouble -- US Post Office, Department of Veteran's Affairs. Too many deadlines being pushed out to September through November -- US Army Too many superficial tests being run as propaganda ploys -- FAA, NERC Too many real tests unsuccessful -- L. A. sewage and elevator failures. Too many programmers unhappy about progress being made. Too few BCCPs (Business Continuity and Contingency Preparation) plans from federal agencies -- none? Too late amendment to Executive Order establishing 40-person ICC (Information Coordination Center) Too few community action groups, too poorly focused. Too much continuing escalation of federal remediation budget that doesn't even comprehend contingency preparations. Too many foreign countries half awake. Too few met June 30 deadline. Too little understanding of the implications of minor problems -- July 1st start of fiscal year. Too few signs of life from Al Gore, whose presidential campaign depends on Y2K success. Too tepid responses from U.N. and G8. Too much litigation commencing -- GTE suing insurers for $300 million. Too little news on real status of embedded systems problems. Too much secrecy on government preparations -- News blackout on evacuation route signs appearing on Michigan Interstates Too much exaggeration of the problem by "doomers", minimization of the problem by "Happy Faces" and lack of objective factual information by the large majority."

-- fake (fake@out.com), July 08, 1999.

yep that says it
what exaggeration by doomers? haven't seen Infomagic around recently

-- h (h@h.h), July 08, 1999.

Fake

He also said that the way things were going he would move to an 8 in August.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), July 08, 1999.

Harlan sounds like he is in the same camp as Cory, just tells it in a slightly different way. Now back up to a 7.0 again. And look, 7.0 is a very serious scenario. It was when I started seeing a lot of codeheads saying stuff like this that I got really worried. Where's Flint lately? Hey Flint, what do you make of Harlan's worry list?

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 08, 1999.

The Russ Kelly website - "What the Experts Think" - makes an interesting read. Be sure to "click through for further statements" from each of the experts. Their opinions run the gamut and many of their comments are quite thought provoking. Here are short 'n to the point comments from one expert who apparently doesn't want to waste words on something he believes has been way overblown...

Nicholas Zvegintzov

Author, speaker, software company president. M.A. from Oxford Univ. in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy. Researched in computer science and artificial intelligence at UC Berkeley and Carnegie- Mellon. 35 year software veteran. (May 1999): "Less and less signs of any disruption."

(April 1999): "Still no evidence of serious problems."

(January 1999): "I haven't given myself much leeway to go down! I see no evidence of a pattern of failure or of vulnerabilities uncovered by millions of dollars spent on analysis and testing."

(December 1998): "I STILL don't see any evidence of likelihood of serious disruptions. Being afraid isn't evidence."

-- CD (not@here.com), July 08, 1999.

CD,

Oh you rascal you! Went and picked out one of the two "experts" out of, what is it now 20-25, that see only optimism in this. The Mad Russian you point at has *never* believed Y2k was a problem. Sound like a familiar Russian position to you? This guy's a 1- and always has been. You sure do like long shots, don't you? You play the lottery every day too?

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), July 08, 1999.

LOL Gordon. As I said, their opinions run the gamut.

-- CD (not@here.com), July 08, 1999.

Can someone tell me what Harlan is referring to when he speaks of "News blackouts on evacuation route signs appearing on Michigan Interstates"

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), July 09, 1999.

fake,

Is this what you had in mind for Harlan's stuff?

"Lots of good reports but ...
Too many loose ends not being tied up.
Too much uncertainty about oil supply and foreign supply lines in general.
Too much self reporting that successful remediation is at severe risk -- e.g. Washington DC, Ventura County.
Too much government and banking propaganda as undesirable replacement for independent audit of progress.
Too many news blackouts for areas in trouble -- US Post Office, Department of Veteran's Affairs.
Too many deadlines being pushed out to September through November -- US Army
Too many superficial tests being run as propaganda ploys -- FAA, NERC
Too many real tests unsuccessful -- L. A. sewage and elevator failures.
Too many programmers unhappy about progress being made.
Too few BCCPs (Business Continuity and Contingency Preparation) plans from federal agencies -- none?
Too late amendment to Executive Order establishing 40-person ICC (Information Coordination Center)
Too few community action groups, too poorly focused.
Too much continuing escalation of federal remediation budget that doesn't even comprehend contingency preparations.
Too many foreign countries half awake.
Too few met June 30 deadline.
Too little understanding of the implications of minor problems -- July 1st start of fiscal year.
Too few signs of life from Al Gore, whose presidential campaign depends on Y2K success.
Too tepid responses from U.N. and G8.
Too much litigation commencing -- GTE suing insurers for $300 million.
Too little news on real status of embedded systems problems.
Too much secrecy on government preparations -- News blackout on evacuation route signs appearing on Michigan Interstates
Too much exaggeration of the problem by "doomers", minimization of the problem by "Happy Faces" and lack of objective factual information by the large majority."

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), July 09, 1999.

Very sobering, because Harlan is a "cool head" and an "engineer's engineer".

This says, bottom-line, that he has detected a retro-dynamic taking hold with remediation and testing progress (otherwise, his rating would have increased or remained constnat): exactly what we don't want to see with six months to go.

And exactly what Yourdon predicted with his "deja vu" article six months or so ago.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), July 09, 1999.

Quick search on Michigan Evacuation Route found this....

http://www.cookinfo.com/evroute.htm

Also stumbled across an interesting collection of documents pretaining to an evacuation route for California coast to Nevada? Also mention Washington and Oregan routes also to Nevada... will follow that thread a bit and see if it gets curiouser and curiouser, and post a link to follow...

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), July 09, 1999.

Re "Michigan evacuation routes": Unless I missed something, this just looks like SOP evacuation info for those living near the Cook Nuclear Plant at Bridgman, Michigan (on Lake Michigan), which I remember visiting as a high-school student. You know, info about what to do in case anything ever went seriously wrong at the nuke for whatever reason. I imagine all nukes have such posted evacuation procedures, though officials actually posting road signs (if true) might be something new. I note that my old high school, Brandywine, is designated as reception center "C." (I grew up in Niles Township and lived only a block from Brandywine H.S.)

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), July 10, 1999.