Some people dismiss North much too quickly. While there is much to debate and disagree with, there is much wisdom and information in his writing. For your perusal:

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Last month, Ed Yourdon dropped out of the Year 2000 debate. He had written a best-selling book with his daughter, Jennifer. He had written a follow-up book, which is selling well. He testified before Congress in May. Then, without warning, he quit. He told his readers that he had to make a decision: continue with Y2K debates or spend the time on his family's Y2K preparations.

The deciding factor, he said, was this: the two sides don't change. They get more set in their ways. Meanwhile, he has received his share of hate mail and guilt mail. (I suffered this for a year myself; then I pulled my e-mail address from my Web site.) So, since his efforts were changing no minds, he decided to reallocate the irreplaceable resource of time.

I keep going. I donate four to five hours a day on remnant.org. There, I set forth the case for disaster in 2000, using publicly available documentation in most cases. Am I changing many minds? I doubt it. Am I reinforcing preconceived opinions? I hope so. The site sits there, like a beacon, proclaiming this message: most organizations are not Y2K compliant, and they will not reach Y2K compliance this side of 2000. I don't think they will reach it next year or the year after, either.

I have maintained this from the beginning. Y2K is systemic. It never was possible that four decades of bad code could be replaced in three years. But it was not politically correct to say this. The code repairmen resented this message, and the Establishment resented it. This message, I was told, is a message of despair, of hopelessness. Yes, it was, and is: for humanists who thought they would build themselves a New World Order with tax money and State-granted monopoly privileges. They bet the farm on the computer. That bet is going to turn terrifyingly sour in 2000 and beyond.

The Establishment

The Establishment always sees the status quo as the culmination of history. Today's Establishment is the pinnacle, they think. Yes, there will be progress, but always in terms of the principles and arrangements that allowed pioneers to build today's Establishment. In short, "Come ye, say they, I will fetch wine, and we will fill ourselves with strong drink; and tomorrow shall be as this day, and much more abundant" (Isa. 56:12). But every Establishment faces a day of reckoning: "This is the interpretation of the thing: MENE; God hath numbered thy kingdom, and finished it. TEKEL; Thou art weighed in the balances, and art found wanting" (Dan. 5:26-27). No Establishment can contemplate this. It is beyond belief. So is Y2K.

Every social order has an Establishment. This is built into the covenant: point two, the doctrine of hierarchy, which is a doctrine of representation. Each man is represented by Christ or Adam. Men's hierarchical organizations are also represented by individuals. Someone speaks in the name of the organization.

Those who speak for the supreme organizations in society are members of the Establishment. As to which organizations are senior in any era, every society is different. In this century, the senior organizations in the West have been these: the major central banks, represented at the Bank for International Settlements; large commercial banks, including the privately held merchant banks; the largest oil companies; large financial brokerage houses; law firms that serve the interests of these institutions; the media's key institutions, which include the entertainment industry and news organizations; the supreme universities, the prep schools that supply them with students, and the eating clubs that originated in these universities; private foreign policy discussion clubs, whose members staff these other institutions; the supreme courts; and political parties. Political parties come last, even though they are by far the most visible. In the United States, the largest foundations are part of the Establishment. These groups constitute the Old Boy network. Culturally, they are at the other end of the spectrum from the Good Old Boy networks.

There was a time, prior to the Scopes trial, when the large Protestant denominations were major players in the American Establishment. This influence began to fade after the Civil War and became more obvious in 1926, the year after the Scopes trial and the year that liberals captured the Northern Presbyterian Church and the Northern Baptist Convention. From 1926 on, we can date the decline of membership in the non-fundamentalist churches. Clergymen in the large Protestant denominations then became hangers-on in the Establishment. It is safe to say that the influence of freemasonry and the denominations faded side by side in the United States.

There is a single cultural bond that unites the establishments of the world and the masses: rock and roll music. Allan Bloom argued in The Closing of the American Mind a decade ago that this is the common culture of students at the best universities. It is also the common heritage of all other students, all over the world. John Lennon got into trouble briefly for saying the obvious: "The Beatles are more popular than Jesus." Among the young, this was true. The world forgot within months, and their popularity increased.

Unplugging the Establishment

Without the computer, the Establishment would collapse. It can live without rock and roll, but it cannot live without computers. The extraordinary effect of Moore's Law in lowering the cost of information has transformed the world. Peter Drucker -- the one author I do not argue with -- says that any new technology that can reduce costs by 90% or more will displace the older technology. Moore's Law says that the surface area of a newly designed transistor will shrink by 50% every 12 months. That doubles its capacity. This means that by year four, the computer will be in a position to replace its rivals.

Yet here is a peculiar fact: the statisticians have yet to prove that the introduction of technology has actually increased our productivity. We all know that it must have. We keep buying new computers. Somewhere in the data, there has to be proof that we are richer because of our computers. I know I am, but I'm not representative, according to the statisticians of productivity.

What we do know is that the cost of information drops, year after year. We therefore buy more of it. We use this ever-cheaper information in our daily lives. The computer has made this reduction in information costs available to middle class people and small businessmen. Therefore, we have substituted information for other scarce resources in our lives. There has been no way to stop the spread of the computer. Not many people have wanted to. The thought of having to write by means of a pen is frightening to me. I compose differently now, since erasing or moving text is so easy.

No one planned this invasion. Thomas Watson, the founder of IBM's empire, did not think there would be demand for more than a few dozen computers, if that. IBM did not spot the Apple computer in 1979. Surely, in 1981 IBM did not understand what control over the IBM PC's operating system would mean. Similarly, in the early 1950's, Hoyt Axton's mother did not foresee the social revolution she would cause when she wrote "Heartbreak Hotel." We cannot see the outcome of our efforts.

Moore's Law dooms the Establishment. So does Y2K. Moore's Law says that the chips will shrink in size by 50% every 24 months. This means a quadrupling of efficiency. There is no way for mainframe computer systems to be redesigned fast enough to match the speed of innovation in PC's. Meanwhile, the Internet is opening up a new world order of information to people who do not own a mainframe. The democratization of information through unprecedented price competition will doom the gatekeepers of information: publishers, the media, universities, brokerage houses -- the whole Establishment.

If Y2K reverses Moore's law next year -- which I predict it will -- then the Establishment will be like a drug-addicted rich kid. It will suffer the same withdrawal pains as the rest of us. It may suffer even more: it funded the addiction longer, and it is not used to pain.

This is why we are at a turning point in history. Moore's Law is opening up horizons that the gatekeepers -- the Establishment -- cannot rationally hope to control. It's way to late to reverse the process. The Establishment will die in either case. Moore's Law threatens it with democratization and price competition. Y2K threatens it with bankruptcy and powerlessness. The essence of an Establishment is monopoly, and both Y2K and Moore's Law threaten monopoly. Moore's Law will democratize power and wealth; Y2K will do the same. Y2K will shatter the instruments of centralized control by mid-2000. Moore's law will do it within ten years. If you doubt me, read The Twilight of Sovereignty, by Walter Wriston, the former head of Citibank, and the son of Henry Wriston, one of the Establishment's most influential figures in the 1940's.

The apostle of Moore's Law is George Gilder. He was reared by David Rockefeller. Now, there's irony for you!

I think we will see the breakdown of fractional reserve banking in 2000. If we do, then this century's experiment in central banking will end painfully. Central banking is the central institution in the national Establishments, and it is the primary candidate for becoming the central institution in the internationalists' New World Order, beginning in Europe in 2005. I think this attempted apotheosis will fail next year. If I'm wrong, then I will still live to see its demise if I live as long as my four grandparents.

The End of Fractional Reserve Banking

Why do I think the banks are doomed? Because of what Congressman James Leach reported on his Web site in November, 1997. He is the chairman of the House Banking Committee:

Experts also emphasize that the problem must be fixed properly and on time if Year 2000 related problems are to be avoided. I was intrigued by a statement Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made a couple of weeks ago. He pointed out that 99 percent readiness for the Year 2000 will not be enough. It must be 100 percent. Thus, the message seems clear: all financial institutions must be ready; federal and state regulatory agencies must be ready; data processing service providers and other bank vendors must be ready; bank customers and borrowers must be ready; and international counterparties must be ready.

There is not a single compliant major money center bank. The 19 largest Japanese banks are not compliant. No European bank is compliant. The game is very nearly over.

When the game ends, tens of millions of people will be wiped out financially. That will force them to consider Moses' warning: "And thou say in thine heart, My power and the might of mine hand hath gotten me this wealth. But thou shalt remember the LORD thy God: for it is he that giveth thee power to get wealth, that he may establish his covenant which he sware unto thy fathers, as it is this day" (Deut. 8:17-18). Better to learn this lesson on this side of the final judgment.

Sincerely yours,

Gary North

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 07, 1999

Answers

While I'm not a big proponent of any biblical connection to Y2K, I still agree with the gist of North's essay. The Establishment is doomed and it will take quite some time for them to re-establish their imminence. And nobody truly knows what will happen in the meantime.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 07, 1999.

Thanks for the story, articles like this keep me motivated despite all the other distractions.

Thank God my 10 cords of wood arrives today.

Recently noted a survey on one of those internet site headers: Where will the Dow be March 2000. Choices :

7000, 10000, 12000, 15000 --- seems weighted on the high end or at least no change to me. Also note the cover of Newsweek " The Whine of 99" ---"Everyone is getting rich except me" ---thoughts I've had myself. But looking around don't really KNOW anyone getting rich, except as reported in the news. More and more convinced that if Y2K is anything but a hoax (I know its not), we are really in for it.

Or maybe it'ld be great irony for Y2K to pass as "a bump" and the worlds economic system crash a month later.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), July 07, 1999.

nations-rise--nations-fall. [nothing-new--under-the-sun]the party,s OVER.---back--to--reality.-------TIME to ask GOD, are you tring to tell us something????--clue.>>JESUS said''what good'does it do if a man GAIN the whole world, and LOSE his SOUL?? the best things of LIFE are FREE>family'friend,s'peace-of-mind'ALL found in JESUS. IT,S A HEART THING.

-- I knew it. (dogs@zianet.com), July 07, 1999.

Yeah, nations rise and they fall. Our timing was bad. We are getting caught in the time of the fall. Just when we were having fun. Oh well... (or, alas Babylong, since we're all bein' biblical.) It happens.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 07, 1999.

BB:

I don't dismiss Gary North. There is sadness in his commentary. Why?

"For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow." (Ecclesiastes 1:18)

Gary North has perceived severe judgments coming to America and the rest of the world. He is warning while he can so that others may make preparations while they can. The coming storm will rain many tears.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), July 07, 1999.

It's 1969 at Computer manufacturer in Southeast Pennsylvania. A new Supercomputer is being designed. It runs languages and databases very well. In the upper right hand portion of the blackboard in EVERY office is written MENE, MENE TEKEL UPARSIN (do not erase!). When asked about it, the project manager says "That is so that you can NEVER say that you didn't see The Handwriting On The Wall.

Six months later, the Computer related Panic of 1970 struck Wall Street and the project was cancelled.(The panic that Ross Perot singlehandedly stopped.)

The Handwriting was on ALL the walls!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), July 07, 1999.

Yes, I believe he has said it well. A strong voiced prophet walks the dusty paths of this digital web land we wander and search across. In less than six months we will see how much of the truth he has glimpsed and how well we have listened.

A blazing beacon he is, pouring so much heart into focusing the facts and sending them out across the waters of the masses of our generation. History is quickly unfurling before our eyes.

He's never taken a dollar from me. He has served so many. Fools will mock. The wise will listen and consider well.

Thank you Gary North.

-- TM (digiratoX@att.net), July 07, 1999.

Gary, Gary, Gary.

You told it the way you say it. You are using old software, or maybe new software that is not comliant. Your site is COLD.

You must be into preps, cause the net is WAY AHEAD of your posts. But like your site, the web keeps bringing GOOD NEWS! The problem is fixed. It is NO BIG DEAL. Even your posts to your site reflect this reality (Check #1) There is more Y2K Good News than there is bad news.

Live Life, Enjoy, Drink an adult beverage of your choice.

God gave us life, ponder the good things and give thanks.

-- No (Problem@All.com), July 07, 1999.