One simple observation: if you assume that prices these guys will pay for stocks correlates with their optimism/pessimism then you realize that, BY DEFINITION, they are most pessimistic at the very moment that the market is about to turn upward (i.e., a bottom) and most optimistic at the moment that the market is about to turn downward (i.e., a market top). (What are the odds that you will see the bolt of lightening that strikes you?) I have now become completely convinced that the big money managers are neither that smart or informed. I hope these guys have jobs to lose when this thing shakes down.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), July 02, 1999

Answers

The bad part is that the incompetent and stupid people make the decisions to buy shares which affects stock prices and results in vastly overvalued securities while the person who studies the technical data and invests rationally often loses money because of the decisions of the stupid people. Or the smart person is 2 years ahead of the people impacting the market. Eventually it will crash and the higher it goes, the further it falls.

-- Moe (moe@notstupid.gom), July 02, 1999.

I subscribed to a free service last week to begin tracking macro money moves. The service shows how much money moves in bonds, equities, international and money markets within mutual funds.

Sort of a snapshot of the weeks movements. This weeks data showed that a total of 23 billion dollars was removed from money market funds during the week ending June 30. No, it didn't go into equity mutual funds, no, it didn't go into bonds or international. I think a big piece of it probably headed for the back yard.

This drawdown on money market funds was the largest since Dec of 1998. I will post again next week when the data comes in.

Interesting huh?

Got cash?

-- Will Smith (money@gmoney.com), July 02, 1999.

Will, I'm interested in that service you subscribed to. Please email me the url or post it here. My email is real if you remove the X (spam probs) thanks

-- Mommacares (harringtondesignX@earthlink.net), July 02, 1999.

The main thing that gae me the confidence to invest in the market was after a period of observation, realizing that no one else had a clue, including the "experts."

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 02, 1999.

Will

Please keep posting this info.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), July 03, 1999.