Pessimism increasesgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
John Mauldin was once partner and publisher of Gary North, but said last summer that he felt that Gary had gotten too far out in front on this y2k thing.In this piece, he discusses why he has recently become more pessimistic in his y2k prognosis.
http://2000wave.com/archive/top/latestthoughts1.html
-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), June 30, 1999
The URL should be http://www.2000wave.com/...
What the hey, have a
Link
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), June 30, 1999.
Thanks Dave, here is a snip:"To show you why I am altering my view, first look at the Cap Gemini study done by Dr. Howard Rubin of Rubin Research. His firm works with the worlds largest companies to help them become more efficient in software production. When this report is compared with recently released Y2K ratings compiled by Weiss Research, we begin to get a picture of why there is a growing possibility that the Y2K Recession will be worse than I first thought.
Most Fortune 500 Firms Falling Behind; Many Wont Finish in Time
Rubins survey results were based on responses from 152 Fortune 500 companies and 14 government agencies.
This survey does contain some good news, but its not enough to balance the troubling news when analyzed in conjunction with the Weiss Ratings.
1. 22% of the Fortune 500 are privately admitting they will not be anywhere close to finishing.
2. Production schedules are regularly being missed. 92% of the Fortune 500 companies say they are seeing increasing slippage in the plans. (Slippage is the nice term for saying, We missed our deadline.)
3. 100% of companies are developing contingency plans
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 30, 1999.
contingency plans?How many have Locomotive size generators (the answer is more than a few. Got a report tonight that a financial company in St. Louis has 4.)
How many are arming themselves? Stockpiling supplies? Storing fuel. Snacks too, donuts, Xuxa movies, cold beer? Hey wait a minute, someone's getting ready for a party.
-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), June 30, 1999.
Thanks for the link. Great article. His pessimism is my optimism. At least he thinks the structure will hold somewhat. Wahooo. I'm sure glad I'm out of the market although I might hang on to my funeral home stock... (No, it's not a joke.)
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 01, 1999.
I live in New York, and I'm well aware of the importance of the the financial sector industries in this city. The economy is much less diversified than it was twenty or thirty years ago. The service, real estate, and construction industries, even the surplus at the Transit Authority, are tied to the fate of Wall Street. There is a whole generation here now who know nothing but good times. They expect to make millions out of thin air from Internet stocks. Even the crash of 1987 was sharp by short. (I think the drop was about 30% over the course of a week; maybe someone could confirm the details. I think much of the loss was made up fairly quickly. ) A 50% or more drop in stocks would be a tremendous shock for people who are now oblivious to the possibility. No matter what happens after or in addition to that, the psychological effects of such an event would change the way things are done in New York for a long time to come.
-- Paul DiMaria (p_dimaria@hotmail.com), July 01, 1999.
Italics begone.
Once these pesky HTML genies are out of the bag eh . . .
The proof . . THE CODE IS BROKEN.
Youre welcome
-- debbie (does@dumplings.com), July 01, 1999.
thanks dave i was feeling great until i read this post. oh well, one of the gang will just have to cheer me up.An upside down smiley face to ya bud.
-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), July 01, 1999.