You can ridicule or cajole me if you like, but I'd like to make an observation or two based on what I've seen here over the past few months. Simple thoughts from a simple man...

For the average "GI", 20th century society has become the anathema to all that is righteous, good and "holy". Y2K is the "holy grail" that will purify and sanctify and cleanse the impurity...

But the thought of having to live without the technology - the very thing that has brought this evil to the land; terror!

For the average "Polly", technology is the savior of the modern world. Look at the tremendous advances in medicine and research! Look at the genuine prosperity of our country!

But the thought of having to live without the technology - the very thing that has brought this wonderful bounty to this world; terror!

So here we are, no one really knowing what to make out of all of this. (I've learned a long time ago that the more you think you know about something the less you really do...)

Seems to me that the chances of any imnformation of value (that ever elusive undisputable irrefutable piece of evidence) will not be showing up on our doorstep anytime soon.

So, why attack (either side)? No one will change anyone's point of view with 6 months to go.

Taking the unpopular stance of defending the polly, trying to provide evidence that problems WON'T happen is like asking your doctor to gurantee you WON'T have a heart attack and die next year. He won't do it!

Everyone needs to do their own thing based on their own decisions. Be responsible for yourselves. Don't blame Y2KPro for someone not preparing - it's that person's choice. Don't blame Andy if a bank run starts - it's his money, he can do what he wants with it.

Ok...go ahead and tear me up!

Regards,

Dan

-- dan (dbuchner@logistics.calibersys.com), June 29, 1999

Answers

"After all is said and done, a hell of a lot more is said than done"

-Murphy

-- (tedjennings@business.net), June 29, 1999.

I don't expect to change the minds of our "pollys" -- especially since many of them are actually trolls that conspire on a completely separate so-called "Y2K de-bunking" web site to deliberately mislead and confuse those on the Yourdon forum about Y2K, and to persuade them not to prepare.

There are people who come here to try to learn about Y2K, and make decisions about what to do in their own lives. As long as there is one person out there who might be persuaded to prepare when they might not otherwise do so, I for one will continue to post here. I may have given up the notion that Y2K will be anything less than a 10, but I will never give up on telling people to prepare. (And, it should be noted, many of those "polly" trolls are apparently quite well prepared. Things that make you go Hmmmm.)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 29, 1999.

Three cheers for the King of Spain!

Sometimes I really think that there are people who come and post here just to try and reserve the right to "be right" after 1/1/00. The Pollys are taking a very safe position. if everything goes well then they can come back here and taunt everyone. If the world goes to hell then there won't be a "here" to come back to. But the people on the other side of the spectrum who are saying prepare for a 10 are more than prepared to come back here if everything goes well and endure that taunting.

So to those who advocate preparing in light of possibly looking like a fool I want to thank and congratulate you. it takes guts to admit when your wrong and I think many of you are ready to do that. To those of you who are just trying to come across as being a Mr/Mrs "Know it All-I told Ya So", you can just go to H-e- double hockey sticks!

-- (tedjennings@business.net), June 29, 1999.

DITTO, to the Mud Man.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 29, 1999.

What we do "know" and are told over and over in the newsmedia, in the GAO reports, on the United Nations web-site, from Koskinen, et. al. is... "NO ONE KNOWS" for sure.

That is the universal Y2K truth and will be up until midnight December 31st, 1999.

Clearly, if you follow the press and the clues, Y2K glitches are already "in play." The ball is in motion.

While everything... pretty much... works... the fix-it crews can find and correct. That's great.

However ass-u-ming... this year... that everything WILL BE FIXED... is just plain stupid thinking and worse than fuzzy logic.

ASSUMING there will be problems... globally... of unknown magnitude, with local repurcussions... of unknown types... all occuring for an unknown duration... is just wise.

ASSUMING next year thing may be harder to "fix" on failure is probably smart.

Many of us posting here are focusing on all facets of risk identification. And will continue to do so.

The more "new" people who can choose... for themselves... based on the the best information the Yourdon team can search out... to prepare or not... the better.

I'm here for the duration too. If there is anything WE can do to help newcomers stay calm, find out and get ready... well... that's what makes sense.

And "good news" press releases just don't cut the mustard, in terms of confidence building, IMHO.

It's not over until it's over, and we won't KNOW until we go straight through the eye of the Y2K storm.

Perhaps in 2001 or 2002... we'll "know" for sure. Hindsight is often a great teacher. If you choose to learn the lessons taught.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 29, 1999.

Diane, you are exactly right. It's not over until it's over. The prudent response is to prepare and not argue.

Dan, my attitude toward technology is that it's great. But I do believe that people have not been responsible in their use of this resource. Moreover, it has allowed the corrupt few to dominate more and more aggressively. All industries have become consolidated and are being run by people who seem to be without conscience or sense. Thus was it ever, but technology has made this concentration of power more pervasive. Yet for sure I would rather live in a corrupt society than die in a chaotic one.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), June 29, 1999.

Greybear suggested that I read 'Lucifer's Hammer'. I did; in relation to demonization of technology it's a good read. Yes, some may think returning to the land will be a good thing -- and it is, I love my little garden, but I'm also quite certain I could not survive if I had to grow all of my own food. The conversations and speculations re: numbers who will starve/die are still coming from an intellectual point of view --- easy to throw those numbers out there while we sit back and make believe we are ourselves prepared to survive. It's become clearer to me how deluded we are...not regarding how severe we may feel the rollover will be, or in our speculations regarding spin, economic fallout,etc....but in our almost childlike belief that while the rest of the world starves while toxic nuclear and chemical fumes spew into the air, that we will somehow sit safely (and I'm talkin' even you guys in them thar hills) and eat, work hard, and survive.

Just recently it was brought to my attention by Leon Kappleman that the two worst hazmat companies in Denton are within a few miles of my home. He says the state of TX has passed its own version of the liability exemption act, which makes it very difficult to expect these companies to give a rat's a... (My language, not Mr. Kapplemans). He also noted that in LA they are working in more holistic fashion; realizing that if one part of the valley is not OK, it can affect the majority.

Did some research into the copper plant and found out they had lied to the city in order to get their permits and tax abatements...they are listed as light industrial...they forget to mention the smelters and that they intended to recycle copper. So now without Y2K problems I've got the prospect of major lead pollution....with Y2K problems, maybe not. A truly sickening dilemma...over which I have but small recourse. As one angry city father put it to a citizen's group who protested, if you don't like it move out of Denton. Sounds like a simple solution, yes? But you see, this is how the problem grows...somewhere we all take a stand. Denton still has it's small town grassroots college town base. If the billionaire from Mexico (involved in mucho controversy re: his connections to drug money laundering) comes in and takes over Denton well it's just not OK. May as well give the state back to Mexico as to lay down on this one. OK...end of rant...I'm just still stunned by it all. And I really don't believe there is anywhere you can safely relocate to (in the US) that will not be subject to chem/nuclear/water pollution if Y2K is above a 5. It was one of the fallacies of the Hammer book...dead bodies everywhere on land in the water -- no problem -- no disease. Not real.

Greybear's gonna bite me on this one, cause he's a man with a plan.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), June 29, 1999.

Sheila,

Interesting research. Pardon my ignorance but who is Leon Kappleman? Denton has always been a strange city IMHO .... a la Rex Cauble.

How many miles radius could these hazmat companies affect? I'm east of Sherman.

DFW region never really seemed to care about toxic pollution at all. Reading about that plant down around Midlothian that burns really toxic waste for energy and the fumes blow north to DFW area. I found this site for state emissions. Grayson Co. is low but Denton, as well as Dallas, Tarrant, & other big city counties are high.

I'm interested in your further comments.

thanks, fellow texan

-- texan (bullseye@ranch.com), June 29, 1999.

Sorry, forgot URL

http://scorecard.org/env-releases/cap//state.tcl?fips_state_code=48#ai r_rankings

-- texan (bullseye@ranch.com), June 29, 1999.

The ol bear would NEVER bite someone because they expressed an opinion in a civilized fasion. He might disagree, but not bite.

On this particular one he doesn't even necessarily disagree. He just believes that any ounce, inch, grain, drop, cent, etc. that can be prepared just *might* make the difference. ANY plan is better than NO plan. And as long as the bear is above room temperature he is going to struggle with entropy.

-Greybear

-- Got ...anything?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), June 29, 1999.

Texan: How many miles radius could these hazmat companies affect?

From what I've learned so far looks like it depends on the prevailing wind... and wind speed. Don't really know. The info I've read seems to pretty much include all of Denton City as a significant fallout area.

I'm east of Sherman.

You should be OK except when the wind is coming from the southwest to the northeast. And yeah, I saw the report on scorecard...nothing past 1996 though. So, we've been living in the soup all along...

My hubby and I have been sitting around figuring wind directions since he got home from work.

Greybear: you're right every inch, every effort counts. Hey! gas masks are next! Everyone remember the thread on creating an in house emergency shelter....guess I'd better get the plastic out or maybe build on gigantic plastic greenhouse over my entire house...or better still a dome over the entire property....with filtered air/solar powered....if I had the money to do that I could move. But don't worry, we haven't given up...still just rubbing the salt out of our eyes.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), June 30, 1999.