For educational purposes only... ?

Recent development http://dxlc.com/solar/

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on June 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 419 and 637 km/sec. The third solar wind shock in as many days was observed at ACE at 03:20 UTC. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 650 to 770 km/sec and has since varied between 700 and 860 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field strengthened considerably, however, the IMF has initially been mostly northwards. It is likely that the IMF will swing southwards within a couple of hours. Should that happen minor to major storming will be observed with severe storming possible, particularly over high latitudes. The source of this disturbance could be related to the halo CME observed on June 24. The very high solar wind speed suggests that there could be a much more recent flare related CME involved as well.

Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 207.4, the planetary A index was 21 (3-hour K indices: 2333 5454, Boulder K indices: 2333 4444). Region 8592 managed to produce and M flare. Further M flares are unlikely unless new development occurs. Region 8594 was quiet and stable and has the potential to generate minor M flares. Region 8596 merged with region 8598. Region 8598 is a complex region capable of major flaring. It is likely to produce M flares and perhaps an X flare over the next days. Polarities are mixed throughout the region and a weak amgnatic delta configuration has been observed. Region 8599 was quiet and stable, as was region 8600. Region 8602 should continue to produce C flares and has a good chance of generating M flares as well. The region has a weak magnetic delta configuration. Region 8603 is fairly complex and has at least minor M class flaring potential. Region 8604 was quiet and stable. Region 8606 was quiet and stable and has C class flaring potential. Region 8607 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 8608 decayed into spotless plage. Regions 8609 and 8610 were quiet and stable. New region 8611 emerged near the southeast limb and has been developing very quickly. It may already be capable of minor M class flaring. New region 8612 emerged in the southeast quadrant.

Comment added at 05:47 UTC on June 28: The partial halo CME discussed below was a full halo CME in LASCO C3 images. There is at least a 90% likelihood of a terrestrial impact from this event. The impact time window is from the latter half of June 29 until late on June 30 with the most likely time early on June 30. Active to severe storming is likely. Solar wind speed has increased to rarely observed values of near 900 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field has swung southwards and the geomagnetic field should be at storm levels for a large part of the day. A very strong magnetic impulse was observed at the earth at 05:15 UTC.

Flares and CMEs

Region 8592 produced the most significant event on June 27 in the form of an M1.0/2N flare at 08:44 UTC. A strong type IV sweep was recorded associated with this flare. A large coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C2 starting at 09:06 UTC. It developed into a partial halo CME covering the entire northern hemisphere and most of the southwest quadrant. There is a fairly high possibility of an impact from this CME sometime on June 30, active to major storming can be expected.

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

Coronal holes

No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm with a possibility for severe storm intervals on June 28. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes very poor to useless.

Coronal holes (1)Green Coronal mass ejections (2)RED!!! M and X class flares (3)RED!!!

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

[Notice, if you will, this reference at the bottom]

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less. **Typical??**

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observ... --end snip

Got a good book???

Why wouldn't we prepare for a solar storm, considering the potential impacts of one?? We are told to do so for tornadoes, hurricanes, ice, etc. and these things don't hold a candle to the possible effects of a series of photon, X class flares on a global scale!!

side-- I was wondering why the sudden stall in reporting from Jan A. the last two days. Just as we began to report on his/her findings. I worried that he knew something he couldn't or wouldn't report. His reporting "feels* much more unencumbered than the official reports.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 28, 1999

Answers

Hello Michael,

Funny you posted this, I was just there after perusing data AGAIN at ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/RIDAILY.PLT because I lost my previous notes of daily sunspot numbers above 300 since the 1700's. Granted I only spent 1 hour looking over 200+ years figures but 1957 seemed to be the only maximum with multiple days of sunspot #'s above 320: 5-26: 321, 9-21: 334, 12-23: 343 and 12-24/25: 355 each. We are at 341 today and we are not supposedly close (6 months away) to the predicted peak. Will be interesting to watch.

Also noted regarding flares that two of the most significant/powerful flares in history occurred on June 10, 1991 (M6.4 and M3.2 each) but were not associated with extremely high sunspot numbers. I am trying to learn as quickly as I can because I can see there is no easy way to grasp this stuff. What does jump out at me is that we seem to be having a (possibly) unprecedented busy solar cycle. I sure hope Jan's mention of an X-class flare does not come to fruition - please correct me if I am wrong but we have never actually SEEN an X-class flare....right?

Here's hoping that NASA's predictions were wrong and NOW is the maximum and that it doesn't just keep getting busier until Y2k! Ok, back to normal daily routine..... :)

Kristi

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 28, 1999.

This solar flare junk is like all the other doom and gloom stuff that has not happened.

1. January 1, 1999

2. April 1, 1999

3. Stock market crashing every time a Y2K news story comes out.

4. The crash of 79

5. The Late Great Planet Earth

6. Milne acting human

7. etc. etc. etc. Nothing has come to pass!

-- ex-doomer (notAdoomer@haveLIFE.com), June 28, 1999.

thanx- interesting stuff. Good web site. Don't see much about this in the news. guess "the dress' was more important....... Just ignore the "doubting thomas's"- just another DGI.......

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), June 28, 1999.

Dear former doomer,

I am glad you have found your comfort zone. I try to watch myself and not get too carried away with stuff like this. However this is not "junk science". I am researching information from NASA and NOAA so as to avoid interpretation by some individual who may have a "doom and gloom" perspective.

I find it an interesting subject and choose to watch closely something that hasn't happened since we have been recording sunspot data (since 1700's!). I would rather learn directly from NASA and NOAA instead of from a 20 second blurb on CNN (which hasn't even happened yet). By the way, I have a life - one which I love very much - I am just choosing to not bury my head in the sand. I have a wonderful family and I take the responsibility of protecting them very seriously. Good luck.

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 28, 1999.

Those of you with an interest in this subject and other earth changes related material might want to listen to Art Bell tomorrow night-Tues., 6/29/99. Art's radio show is on from 10PM to 3AM, PST.

-- Greg Lawrence (greg@speakeasy.org), June 28, 1999.

Thanks Greg for the tip-

I haven't been an ardent Art Bell listener, but I try to keep an open mind to objectively listen and look at all views. Just hope I will be getting reception tomorrow. Of any kind.

-- Michael (Mikeymac@uswest.net), June 28, 1999.

OK Kristi or Michael

For some of us who seem to be getting dumber as we get older - what is the difference between an M-class and an X-class flare as it relates to what it can do here on good ol' terra firma? Am assuming by what I am reading that an X is a good deal "stronger" than an M. What "size" flare was supposedly responsible for the power problems back East a few years ago? Thank you.

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), June 28, 1999.

Valkyrie,

I will not pretend to be an expert - I recommend you start by checking out www.sunspotcycle.com and then link over to Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) tutorial on the subject - designed for folks like us. Keep nosing around and you will start to pick it up.

Yes X class flares are more powerful than M class and also extremely rare (as I understand it). NASA still posts a less than 1% chance of an X class flare occurring within next 24 hours but there seems to be no denying that activity is increasing pretty significantly in at least one region on the sun. As I understand it the risks from either a STRONG M class or above would have the potential (if it ends up heading towards us instead of into space another direction) to "zap" satelites and possibly the power grid. More likely to disrupt communications (radio, cellphone, etc.) due to temporary distortions to the magnetosphere (read the tutorial - it helps..:)). NASA's site does mention that during times like that if you are flying up above the ground - say, in a jet - that you can receive a dose of radiation approximately equal to a diagnostic X-ray in hospital.... worth reading up on. Hope this is helpful!

Kristi

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 28, 1999.

Valkyrie-- I am not a physicist, but the reading I have done suggests as you say, there is a progression of severity of flares and other events that raise concerns about possible geo(us)effects.

There seems to be a combination of variables that contribute to the scenarios, ie FLUX, speed, anomalies causing corneal holes and mass ejection's, and types of radiation emitted etc. The number and frequency of sunspots in different zones or quadrants appear to be a precursor of coming events. So far this series has been highly energized. These can cause and have caused power interruptions in the past. If you are referring to the Canadian power grid damage in 1989, I will look up the article I have on it and get back to you.

-- Michael (Mikeymac@uswest.net), June 28, 1999.

Update/correction........

I stated above that X-class flares were very rare - WRONG, we have had occasional ones as recent as 1997 which I located info on NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC) site. Not common but certainly have happened sometimes several in one year. Sorry for my earlier statement - I keep digging and am learning as I go. If curious check out: www.sec.noaa.gov and take it from there.

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 28, 1999.

Seems very unlikely that we will have major disruptions from sunspots - esp. as much communication has now dropped down to optical fiber links that are not affected by solar flares. Satellites damaged - it is possible, but very unlikely - about like the last Leonid meteor shower chance of damage - which I showed here was about 1 chance in 600 of any satellite being hit. None were damaged by meteors, in fact.

Power interruptions are possible - but even less likely than major communication interruptions - esp. in lower latitudes.

The last three times sunspot peaks came around, people worried about them. I said not to expect major problems. I stand by that once again - hey, even if I was wrong (and I am not) I would still be batting .750 :) .

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 28, 1999.

Well Paul "I'm a big pile of puke" Davis, contrary to what you have been taught not everything is a popularity contest.

-- (nowhere@man.nowhere-land), June 28, 1999.

Dear Kristi,

Get a grip!! This too shall pass.

-- ex-doomer (notAdoomer@haveLIFE.com), June 28, 1999.

Dear Ex-Doomer and Paul,

I guess I should have clarified in my last post - I was not ALARMED by finding that X-class flares were more common - I was actually RELIEVED because that meant that they happened and were often NO BIG DEAL. Sorry if I left my perspective unstated. I put that info up to de-fuse some of the dialogue. Anyhow......

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 28, 1999.