Feeling a little eerie as "Armagedon - the movie" is playing on the TV at our house for the second time today. Once the is AM - the No 1 Son Now again - SO Coincidence yes, disconcerting !YES! Spin??? Weelllll, Nah _X_ And just as I'm checking out updates on this...

X flares (Xray-photon) are the biggest class of flare - seems to be fairly rare, and causing (in conjunction with) past severe storms with physcial damage to elec's here on Terraboom. The **!! are mine t simulate real

Recent development

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 25. Solar wind speed ranged between 281 and 319 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 02:15 UTC on June 26. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 310 to 350 km/sec.The interplanetary magnetic field strengthened significantly but was initially mostly northwards resulting in no increase in geomagnetic activity. Should the IMF swing southward for an extended period of time active to minor storm intervals can be expected. The shock is believed to be related to the halo CME observed on June 22.

Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 200.6 (207.5 adjusted to 1 AU, this is the highest solar flux at 20:00 UTC during this solar cycle), the planetary A index was 5 (3-hour K indices: 2101 1322, Boulder K indices: 3101 1010). Region 8585 was quiet and stable and will rotate off the visible disk today. Region 8592 decayed further and has only one spot left. Region 8594 is developing slowly and could produce a minor M flare. Region 8596 was quiet and stable.

**!!Region 8598 had been developing at a fairly quick rate until late on June 26. From then until I write this explosive development has been observed with the region having the largest number of spots (above 70) observed in any region during solar cycle 23. The region has a high probability of producing a major (proton) flare over the next 2-3 days. An X flare would not be a surprise.**!!

Region 8599 was quiet and stable, as were regions 8600 and 8601. Region 8602 is developing slowly and could produce minor M flares. Region 8603 is developing as well and is currently quite complex and could be capable of generating a major flare. Region 8604 developed slowly and should be capable of producing at least C flares. Region 8605 decayed and could become spotless today. Region 8606 developed slowly and has C class flaring potential.

Flares and CMEs

**!!Considering the development of several regions it's almost incredible that only one C flare was observed on June 25**. No significant CME activity was observed either.

June 24: The most significant event of the day occurred in spotless region 8595. A long duration event started at 12:04 UTC and was visible in LASCO EIT images shortly afterwards. The event peaked at 14:12 UTC at the C4.1 level. A full halo CME (faint over the southeast limb) was observed in LASCO C2 starting at 13:31 UTC. This fairly dense coronal mass ejection is likely to impact earth sometime on June 27 resulting in active to major storm intervals.

June 23: Region 8598 was the source of an M1.7/2N long duration event peaking at 07:09 UTC. A moderately strong type IV sweep was recorded as well and a CME was observed in LASCO images. Due to the CME activity at the southwest limb it is unclear whether this CME, which was first observed over the northeast limb, was a partial halo or full halo CME. There is a possibility that earth can receive an impact on June 26.

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

Coronal holes

No obvious coronal holes are approaching geoeffective positions.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active or possibly minor storm on June 26 and **!!unsettled to major storm on June 27 due to coronal mass ejections. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good but will likely deteriorate quickly over the next couple of days.**!!

Coronal holes (1)GREEN Coronal mass ejections (2)!!!RED!!! M and X class flares (3)!!!RED!!!

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach earth within the next 5 days. 2) Material from a CME is likely to impact earth within 96 hours. 3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Solar region Date numbered Actual no. sunspots Location at midnight Area Classification Comment 8585 990612 1 N35W80 0120 HAX 8592 990619 1 N23W08 0060 HSX 8594 990620 19 N14E14 0210 DAO beta-gamma 8595 990621 N23W34 plage 8596 990621 4 N21E00 0010 BXO 8598 990621 39 N23E13 0650 FKI gamma 8599 990621 10 S16E27 0110 DSO 8600 990622 1 N18W64 0000 AXX 8601 990623 3 S15W63 0010 BXO 8602 990623 16 N18E48 0320 CAO 8603 990623 18 S15E54 0320 FAI 8604 990624 6 N12W68 0100 CAO 8605 990624 1 S24W48 0000 AXX 8606 990624 11 N17E21 0060 DAO Total number of sunspots: 130

Monthly solar data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number 9805 106.7 56.3 59.4 (+2.9) 9806 108.4 70.7 62.5 (+3.1) 9807 114.0 66.6 65.5 (+3.0) 9808 136.0 92.2 67.8 (+2.3) 9809 138.3 92.9 69.5 (+1.7) 9810 117.2 55.5 70.5 (+1.0) 9811 140.1 74.0 73.0 (+2.5) 9812 150.1 81.9 (77.8 predicted, +4.8) 9901 140.6 62.4 (82.3 predicted, +4.5) 9902 141.9 66.1 9903 126.3 69.1 9904 117.2 63.9 9905 148.4 106.3 9906 163.6 (1) 161.2 (2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC solar flux value at 2800 MHz.. 2) Unofficial, accumulated value. The official value is typically 25-40% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999

Answers

Michael,

In a nutshell for those of us without "solarphysicist" or something like that in our title, exactly what are you saying?

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 26, 1999.

I think Michael is saying that the solar cycle may be another piece of the Y2K puzzle. Or another monkey wrench in the works if you will... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 26, 1999.

The original estimates for cycle 23 were to be in the range of 200, as you will see, there have been two periods of 240 and this one is already at 260 and rising. That's a pretty significant difference. And it isn't even July yet. Isn't there some debate about the actual correct calendar date, correcting for Julian, and leap year, etc?

Hey, could be no big deal. But I'm heading for the gas station right about.........

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

I think he's saying that solar activity has just hit a new high for 1999...

http://dxlc.com/solar/

...and that some communications could be affected in the next few days by a very recent solar event.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 26, 1999.

Sorry

Just click anywhere in that mess above or cut and paste this:

http://dxlc.com/solar/

I'm no astrophysicist either, but I can extrapolate enough from the past threads and current events to realize that an event such as this could actually bring down communications, powergrids, satelites etc. I said *could*, not will, but I'm glad I can ride out this type of storm as well. Thankyou EY and all, for the comfortpanic zone!

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

But, we still aren't anywhere near the sunspot of number of about 350 recorded in December 1957:

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist1957.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 26, 1999.

That was written as comfort[me]panic zone, with me in the middle., Oh well, guess I'm just all hot and bothered. {8^}`

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

Howdy Linkmeister,

How many sats did we have up in 1967? How stressed was the power grid? Not looking for a fight, just a few points. Ain't technology wonderful? <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 26, 1999.

Here's an article on concerns about solar cycle 23:

http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/october19/33.htm

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 26, 1999.

Unless I misunderstand the reading I've been doing, the number of sunspots is only a precursor of a possible Coronal Mass Ejection, or X class flare that sends material our way and causes the problem. I have been watching and the sudden increase, and the high probablility of a large powerful flare. A large full halo event yesterday, is already sending us some increase in activity, due tommorrow, but this one has the ?potential? for an "EVENT"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000tb

hhttp://www.oregonlive.com/y2k/archives/y2k_1999.html

Got shades? (8O)`

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

I have read that it takes about two days after the CME or flare, for

the effects to reach us. So if he is talking about possible large

flare within the next 48 hours, then it will be a couple of days

more (IF...it occurs) until we ?may? not be able to xtalk here. Boy

that thought is kinda depressing.

One more thing, if you notice there are other regions that are

developing, and these are only the ones visible at this time, in the

27 day (avg)cycle of rotation, particularly 8603 The trend seems to be

here though.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

Thanks for the URL linkmaster. I went there and then followed it around to http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html. You will notice the huge spike Jan is referring to also. Since it is a gov site, I am suspect of terminology used, as opposed to an independent site offshore, so to speak. I visited a number of really neat sites regarding this today, great photography, but foreign language skills are rusty at best.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

Hi there,

I have recently studying up on this because I noted that the daily numbers posted at the NASA site www.sunspotcycle.com were seeming much higher than predicted. Nowhere on the prediction graph does the monthly average exceed 200 that I could see and it seemed like the daily #'s might average at least that high for this month - will check at end of month. I also discovered that there have been a number of previous cycles with 250-350 range days - made me relax a bit. I still wonder though, if the predicted peak is due at Y2k it does seem we are at a MUCH higher sunspot level than predicted or seen in this century (at this stage of a cycle). By the way NASA says the sunspot number for today is.........260!

Maybe their predicted date for peak is in error.....I hope so!

Sincerely,

Kristi

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 26, 1999.

Michael, if all else fails there's always Park 'n Explore ;^)
You are not alone.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 26, 1999.

Hey Ashton and Leska;

Good to hear from you!!

(Grin) Yea, some post grad PE sounds great. Have always had an affinity for the Ocean/beach/dunes/driftwood/saltair/combing/etc. I wonder how much the coastal cities GI in this area. They are usually so laid back. Another reason I like it there.

Kristi-

I must thank you. Your response in the Planetbuster thread, has kept me on my toes recently. You reminded me that it does little good to merely flash through important info and then lose followup. If communication goes down, I may be in the dark in more ways than one.

The pictures of that melted elec. gear from a solar storm that hit Canada causing powergrid failure, was a real eye opener!!

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 26, 1999.

More action today... weird magnetic impulses... another "M" Class flare just went off a littler earlier today and the meter readings tend to be positioning for another flare burst by early Sun am?

See the ORBIT website...for fast breaking news on a variety of levels. Also...note the really bizarre objects photographed by SOHO near the sun a few days ago. These objects seem to be showing up not long before massive solar activity takes place...(like within 1-4 hours)

http://members.aol.com/phikent/orbit/orbit.html

Watcher

-- watcher (watcher@solarheat.com), June 26, 1999.

I noticed my pubic hairs stand straight up when the solar flares start.

-- Raw (Itchy@scratching.com), June 26, 1999.