Hamasaki: "What I Don't Know Is ..."

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"... how much our civilization depends on computers." (WRP123).

Exactly.

So far as Y2K remediation is concerned, the game is over and has been for two months, AT LEAST. The doomers were right and probably a lot more right than most of them (especially non-IT professionals) knew. It was a disaster of delay, politics and mismanagement.

Gary North WAS the clock that is right twice a day.

How lucky is the world feeling today? 3Q 1999? 4Q 1999? 2000?

Y2K remediation is history. That doesn't mean "fixing stuff" won't continue. It will, for many years to come, a mix of fixing the stuff that makes it through, cobbling together the stuff that can be and starting a variety of new systems from scratch.

Even TEOTWAWKI, we are going to sustain a technical world somehow. Most of us techies on this forum will have work of "some kind" coming out of our ears. I'm already brainstorming it. We made the world drink of our expertise over the past 40 years and it can never go back. Good for us, I 'spose.

But don't mistake "fixing stuff" over the next six months with history. Future PhD analyses of Y2K in compsci, econ and soc will agree that the die was cast no later than end of 1Q 1999 and most folks in power colluded to deny it. Understanding why and preventing that from ever happening again will make fascinating reading .... and weird public policy.

This thread is NOT oriented to pollies. Their take on Y2K is history too. "Let the dead bury their dead." This is oriented to the pros. Conceptualize where you want to be over the next few years (safety first, then opportunity) while the "weird science" is happening and begin preparing your technical "make it through" map now. Email me if you want to discuss offline with a few of us that are already engaged.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 24, 1999

Answers

Big dog,

I'm a new guy to this forum and probably young by most standards. I have been lurking here for a while but you posted this thread and I felt like I needed to reply because it's exactly what I've been thinking about. Technology will certaintly survive the rollover and the question is... "what skills are you going to have to be productive after the rollover?".

Well with that in mind I've been trying to learn a little bit about everything. Programming languages, networking, communications, system administration, hardware configurations, basic concepts and facilities for mainframes, applications, environments, etc. etc.

I don't consider myself very experienced but I have a unique ability to retain information and using that inherent skill I consider myself a jack-of-all-trades. I figure that is going to be the only way to be in high demand after the rollover. Right now I'm concentrating on the AS/400 mainframe, and branching out into other areas that seem like they would be of interest and value. I'd like to hear from you if there is something I can research that might be of value. What is going on now is surely going to be an interesting chapter in the history books of tomorrow and I'd like to be a part of making that happen for the better.

-- (AICRoostr@aol.com), June 24, 1999.


BIG.D sounds like you in good shape,for y2k & life-after y2k.QUESTION. do you think conditions will be simialur'to what it was like, after the great-depression? especially concerning=real-estate?lot,s of good deal,s for folk,s with cash?

-- al-d. (CATT@ZIANET.COM), June 24, 1999.

AIC --- 2000 will be the year of "weird science and living dangerously" for IT, personally (lock and load), politically (nutty attempts at finger-pointing and regulation) and technically (uh, what next, boys and girls?). Some of us want to put together one or more SWAT teams for .... whaaa? Frankly, we're not even sure yet. Not Y2K remediation in the classic sense, something different, something .... weird.

I'll email you when I return from some travel and have more leisure (ha!).

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 24, 1999.


One of my duties in a former corporate life was in peer career counselling. (My company layed off a division and reconstituted it in another state.) If you want to invest the time in identifying your skills, may I suggest the old nugget "What Color is Your Parachute?" by Richard Bolles. A more comprehensive exercise is found in "Where Do I Go From Here With My Life?" (sic) by Crystal. (Sorry can't find my copy.)

Both of these resources provide excellent exercises to guide a person through the identification of the many transferable skills he/she possesses and enjoys. I was surprised at all the skills I had obtained from experiences "outside" the workplace.

It was great for the spirit and self-confidence. May be a good exercise for all GITs who have completed preparations and want to be mentally and emotionally prepared for the challenges ahead.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), June 24, 1999.


Oh, heck, doesn't Cory "know" that he and Paul Milne and I don't think anything can work without computers? ;-)

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), June 24, 1999.


Lane --- Yeah, LOL. Have a feeling we'll be running into you and the other weird science boys next year in various places ..... lemme see, used to be MVS, eh? Hmmm ..... hokey-dokey, how does Forth sound for youse guys as a fresh start? We can even do a whole OS for you .... you say you can pay us in beans and ammo? COOL!

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 24, 1999.

Big Dog!

I hope you are enjoying your travels.

I certainly hope technology will be active. (Even if just mechanical) I think that once the roll over is complete and most failures have occured that things will normalize and people will pick up the pieces. The question is just how severe the damage is and what kind of resources are available or not available and for how long. That will play a significant part in just what skills are needed.

I'm praying that the electricity is up and running soon after. That way we can use the computers and programmers can complete any programming etc. Besides, how else are we going to know for certain if the Bios works in any of the computers we are typing on, if there isn't any electric.

A shortage in gas will have a different effect. While not directly effecting electric it will cause more of a supply line crisis. That is what we are all looking to survive, mostly, the lack of available household goods, foods and durable goods. Of course if there is a chip of electrical failure in any of the vehicles distributing the goods they have to be serviced and replaced(How long & at what cost?)

A loss of both at the same time will suck, but I hope, we get electricity back in a respectable amount of time. Don't know how realistic it is, but until the NERC and the SEC comes out and says we are disclosing any and all info I will plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Just wish I had more control.

One way or another it better get over with, so I know what I'm dealing with and can have a life.

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), June 24, 1999.


BigDog -

you Forth love IF honk ELSE no-honk THEN

8-}]

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 24, 1999.


Big Dog, the question I want answered is this: How many of you doomers who have called me names are going to come around here after 1/1/2000 and take your medicine? And how many are going to pull a vanishing act? And how many more will be in total denial that the world is still here, and still working, with power, water and food? Somebody told me a couple weeks ago that REAL problems would not show up until the end of the second quarter next year. LOL. Why not just put off the predictions for REAL problems till the year 2100 rollover?

Time will tell - and will you have the guts to show up when it does? I promise I will be here.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 24, 1999.


I for one will HAPPILY concede that I completely misjudged Y2K if in fact things turn out as rosy as Paul Davis claims. I will not only concede that to Paul Davis, but I will even go so far as to eat humble pie to Mr. Decker. (Gawd, makes me want to throw up to even type this!)

I WOULD LOVE to ask the same thing of the pollyannas, BUT of course that is impractical. I mean, first you need a working power grid, telecommunications, the Internet, ...

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 24, 1999.


Paul: I do! I'll practically have to take January off in order to eat crow/settle bets if I'm wrong.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), June 24, 1999.

My take is that it's going to be either or ... Either 2.5 +/- .5 or 9 +/- 1
The problem is, I don't know which.
If it's 2.5, then the same skills as now will be necessary, but using them will be in an atmosphere of inconvenience, even danger.
The technology will be essentially the same; government will still be on (in) our ass, etc.

On the other hand, if it's a 9 or 10, the skills of the 1800s will be necessary (for those who survive). Gonna need lotsa books (since very few with actual explerience) and have to be a real quick learner.

Leaving out the middle ground -- 3 through 8, what do you think it's going to be -- a 2 or 3, or a 9 or 10?

-- A (A@AisA.com), June 24, 1999.


First, I'm not a techie, so consider the following as coming from someone who sees the next few years differently from you guys.

I don't want to rain on your parade, but when Ko-skin-em and his fellow bureaucrats and the corporate managers are standing there after TSHTF and everything is overnighted back to the 1800's, who do you think they're gonna blame? Themselves? WRRRRRONG!!

Yep... the techies of the world did it. They chopped off the first two fields and left off "19." You think we got spin now?

Got a safe house? Got ammo?

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), June 24, 1999.


paul,

upfront let me say i'm pessimistic over whats about to happen. however .. i do pray, daily, that i'll be wrong.

i have friends who say what you said above (in so many words): 'i cant wait to see your face next yr when nothing happens'; or .. 'what are you going to do nx yr when you find out you're wrong'. i admit that its a Very tough position to hold: believing the worst could [possibly] happen - preparing for it - and yet wanting to be wrong. its something i "live with" daily.

but honestly .. do you REALLY think that [most of] us pessimists WANT this to happen???

not this guy.

lou

-- lou (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), June 24, 1999.


Sandman makes an interesting point,

Everyone has been taught that back in the Dark Ages (whatever, I wasn't good at history) how the Christians would condemn, torture, and execute anyone who had dealings with this new thing called "science". To them it was no better than carving pentagrams on your floor and sacrificing children.

So... I wonder, if Y2K cause headaches for your average Chrsitian Joe Six will things get to the point where a great number of people REALLY begin to shun technology and condemn the "techies"? That factor alone would be enough to make me lock my door for a month and not step outside. I could almost see it now... a new order of people who totally shun technology and a New Age Order of people who still want to advance the human mind. The agrarian type God people against the Neo Mechanical "Borg" people. The way I see it it makes perfect sense. First the Inquisition throwbacks slowly dwindle in numbers and then finally go extinct just like the animals who couldn't adapt to changing weather conditions. Leaving the others to find ways to aclimatize to the New Age of Information and Science. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the evolution of the human race in such a tangible, drastic way.

-- (Hmm@I wonder.com), June 24, 1999.



Hmmm:

When you car breaks down, do you pay your mechanic or shoot him? People don't generalize to the degree you seem to think. People may hate lawyers in general, but who do they call when the Man comes knocking? And they hate government, yet worry about 911 systems (which call the government).

Big Dog is right. When the breakdowns start, people may hate the breakdowns, but not the people burning midnight oil to fix them.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 24, 1999.


Big Dog,...Understanding why and preventing that from ever happening again will make fascinating reading...and weird prublic policy. How right you are! It has been interesting watching disperate agencies, organizations and individuals, representing public, private and nonprofit sectors respond to Y2k. From denial to awareness and then onto subsequent recognition of the task complexities. Recent attention has focused on SEC Quarterly disclosure and financial filing. The difficulty feeling confident about such information has already been chronicled. Less attention has been directed and reported regarding the evolving plethora of Policies and Procedures from public organization. The examples that do exist now fall into two categories:a)contingency plans for continued operation of the individual agency;and b)policies to facilitate interagency work specifically about Y2k remediation and reconstruction. Future PhD Policy Analysts will study these directives to better understand this period in time, regarding organizational development, politics and collective social behavior. The disconnect between the perceived need for such new policy directives and the denial articulated,will keep social scientists busy fashioning explanation. Change begets change. We must remain ever vigilant to both safety and liberty.

-- Ruth the Moab (aapm@aapainmanage.org), June 24, 1999.

18 months from now, I will ber MOE than happy to do whatever a current non-doombrood person suggests as apropriate penance for my moderately gloomy outlook, so long as things are NOT spiralling down. I am beginning to think that the effects and affects will run into the end of the year. Which, if it DOES happen wil mean a more nasty result, IMO.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), June 24, 1999.


Since I'm (almost) a "polly" and betting on only an 8 or 9, I am working on contingency plans that deal with a great depression or at least a recession. What worked during the last depression?

(1) Movies. Many big studios got their start in the 30's. Current technology (video) requires less equipment, but more expertise in video editing.

(2) Bank robbery (but would probably be useless in Y2K) (This would NOT be a serious option for me...my order is specifically against bank robbery)

(3) Basic comodities

(4) Government welfare programs. Lots of new opportunities for bureaucrats.

(5) Monestaries. Good time to start a new one.

(6) Gold mining. Can I assume that all of you have gold pans and know how to use them?

(7) Auctions, such as art auctions. Many currently well-to-do folk may want to unload their collections at the best possible prices.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 25, 1999.


Mac: YES! I have GOT to have that bumper sticker. Actually, do you or Paul know where I can get my hands on current PC-style FORTH compilers (could figure out, but lazy enuf to ask)? No joke, FORTH may have a nutty role to play in some situations for some time. Always had anyway and still does.

Davis said, "Big Dog, the question I want answered is this: How many of you doomers who have called me names are going to come around here after 1/1/2000 and take your medicine? And how many are going to pull a vanishing act? And how many more will be in total denial that the world is still here, and still working, with power, water and food?"

What does this mean? Is the world NOT going to be here? WHY DIDN'T ANYONE TELL ME THAT? WAHHHHH! WAHHHHH!

Not only is the world going to be here, Paul, but I'm confident the Net will (mostly) stay up, leastways here in U.S. of A. But it's going to be one weird and wacky world, my polly-o friend. The chance of you being right is vanishingly small. As is the chance of you apologizing for your stubbornness.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 25, 1999.


Big Dog,

Sounds like you have some solid contingency planning going on. Have you thought of calling yourselves "The Smoke Jumpers?" as in: "some idiot put the jumper on the wrong pins and that's where all the smoke is coming from."

Now, speaking of smoke, I read a very serious report about electricity and smoke that is being officially suppressed. I would love to post this information on EUY2K but I know it would be pulled immediately. But here goes. Electricity is actually *just* smoke that is being forced through all those wires, not electrons. This becomes readily apparent whenever a leak develops in some equipment. Have you noticed that just before some electric device totally quits working you can see the smoke escaping, or at least smell it? I used to have some British motor cars with Lucas electrical systems in which the wiring gaskets were so poor that smoke often leaked out of the system in dozens of places. So I know this theory is true. Or look at news photos of huge generators that fail, and there will be a big bursting flash and a huge column of smoke coming from the ruptured smoke compressor section of the equipment! Where there's smoke there's fire.

Further, we have been scammed by the electric utilities for many years now. When electric power was first invented and sold to customers it was DC power. The electric (smoke actually) was sent directly to your home (DC), you used it, paid for it, and that was the end of it. Edison was a truly honest man. But, some hot shot, quick change, fast buck artists figured out how to send electric to you, get you to pay for it, and then take it all back. This is AC electric which moves back and forth, never actually staying in one place (your home). See what a fraud it is? So, as much as I would love to pass this information on to a dedicated electric utility audience I'm afraid it would be rejected. Too bad. People need to know about this. ;-)

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 25, 1999.


BigDog -

No clue about current PeeCee FORTH compilers; my experience was waaaay back when RAM was measured in K, not MB. Cool language, though - "GOTOs? We don' need no steekin' GOTOs, gringo. We code in FORTH!"

Paul -

To the best of my knowledge, I'm exempt from your characterization as one of the "doomers who called you names", but I'll be happy to jump on here and apologize personally to you for my lack of faith in (a) the prowess of all those IS departments and (b) the resiliency of the systems which keep us all warm and fed and clothed and employed and such. More than happy. Overjoyed, in fact.

I propose that we schedule a milestone date and an agreed-upon "state of the system". In your view, when can we "declare victory", and what does success look like?

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 25, 1999.


Mac -- OK, I'll look myself. As I recall, PC Forth did have a GOTO statement, mainly just for laughs though.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 25, 1999.

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