After a year and a-half of research trying to sort out the truth from the spin, I am convienced that all families and communities should prepare for a 10 scale event and hope that it turns out to be less, and be pleasently surprised if that is so.

The thing that slam dunked it for me was the Ieee Letter and the Year 2000 contingency planing guide for the Bank of international settlements. It just confirmed the accessment of y2k I had already arrived at. I think If those Items don't convience you to prepare seriously then you are in deep denial and will reap the consequences of you inaction. The two articles above removed my last remaining bit of doubt that y2k will not just be a small bump in the road, But a major societal disruption who's impact will be felt for many years in lenght. Those who survive will be changed and humbled.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), June 24, 1999

Answers

Mike...can you link to the International Bank settlements article. I must have missed that one. Thanks....Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), June 24, 1999.

Mike,

A 10 scale event includes "Supply/Infrastructure collapse", which I think is beyond the kinds of disruptions that may be inferred from the IEEE letter and the BIS document.

I mention this because I think that there are some fundamental differences between prepping for 10 scale scenarios and prepping for disasters that may include partial supply and/or infrastructure disruptions short of complete collapse.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 24, 1999.

Taz,

Here's a link to the press release. It contains links to the guide Mike mentioned, as well as to a related document.

http://www.bis.org/press/p990225.htm

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 24, 1999.

Taz,

The Bank for International Settlements Reports are KEY.

They are short and to the point

Please find them at "garynorth.com"--link:'Banking'--date: June 18

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), June 24, 1999.

I think y2k aware mike may be referring to is preparing for an 8.5-9. It is easy to say 10 and not understand the effects. May be the 10=war idea could have some foundation to the argument. My personal feeling is: there is a threat of widespread war brewing and indications we are a target. The threat of a combination of Y2k and war is enough to justify preparing for 1-2 years or more. Those who over-prepare will probably not be able to utilize all their items it both war and a bad y2k outcome happens. This is why we all need to prepare extra for ourselves and others. We really have alot of responsibility on our hands being G.I.'s, whether we want to admit it or not.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 24, 1999.

Have you grasped in your mind what a 10 scale event would mean to you ? If so, tell us. Because Gary North recently wrote that he has not yet come to terms with the full implications of his 10 scale event scenario. I think it is cavalier to jump in and say "it's a 10" when you probably could'nt survive a 10 anyway for more than a few weeks. I've read the Bank of Intl. Settlements documents, and yes, they have been lying like all the rest of them The banks probably will suffer devastating losses and many will go down. But as Jerry B. wrote, a 10 includes supply / infrastructure lossses ie. all power, sewer, teleco, rail, fuel, distribution system crash, etc. That may not occur, so a "10 " based on the bis.org doc. remains to be seen. But you are thinking, and I hope, taking action.Something we have been doing for years now. North has posted a lot of very insightful documents regarding the banking industry in the last two weeks. My suggestion is to keep preping but don't trust in your preps...trust in the Lord. Read psalm 37, 40, & 91. Got Bibles?

-- potent (potent308@hotmail.com), June 24, 1999.

"Have you grasped in your mind what a 10 scale event would mean to you?"

Yes. It means death, for me, my family, & probably everyone I know.

Shucks, that was easy!

-- persistant cookie (in@my.browser), June 24, 1999.

Why are we quibbling over whether it will be an 8, 9, or 10 ? The point he's trying to make is : prepare as much as your finances and time allow !

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), June 24, 1999.

IMHO:

Preparing for a Y2K 10 scale disaster could include such things as: selling your house, getting out of town and moving to the boonies, possibly to a mild climate, near fresh running water, fertile ground, etc; stocking up on supplies both of consumables and preps for raising crops, and generally prepping for "self sufficiency". Investments in paper assests are NOT part of preparing for this scenario. In a 10 situation, a large stash of commodities and little cash would be much better to have than a small/medium stash of commodities and ample cash.

Preparing for a Y2K 6-7 could include being ready to get out of the city on short notice, but not moving to the boonies; minimizing debt and maximizing savings; changing jobs to one that will seem likely to continue; stocking up on consumables, but not as much as for a Y2K 10, perhaps essential consumables to get through intermittent supply problems, plus substantial supplies of favored/crucial imports, such as coffee, medicines, and so forth. Also, some kinds of investments in paper (financial) assets may be worthwhile in a 6-7 that would be wasted in a 10. In a 6-7, a small/medium sized stash of commodities plus ample cash would be likely to be better than a large stash of commodities and very little cash.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 24, 1999.

Jerry B, I disagree with your stance on cash and a level 10 scenario for these reasons:

1) Assuming that it is a level 10 does not necessarily mean that people are going to believe that it is a hopeless situation. Many might believe that the level 10 conditions that they are experiencing (e.g, no electric power) are just temporary. As long as people think that a return to normalcy is likely to happen soon, cash will absolutely be of value.

2) Even if we go back to a barter system, cash might still be something to barter with. It might be a case of offering a couple of chickens and some cash. In fact, since there is so little actual cash, it might even start being viewed like precious metals, and achieve considerably more worth.

3) There hopefully would be a recovery from level 10, and so at some numerically smaller level, cash might be welcome again. It might provide real opportunities, too.

4) Anyone who is preparing for level 10 should be, implicitly, also preparing for all the numerically smaller levels. Preparing for the worst does not mean that you absolutely are preparing for level 10 and nothing else!

In addition to cash, one should also have a cache of precious metals -- gold and silver coins -- for pretty much the above reasons. They obviously would not be initially useful at level 10, but once the bartering began -- especially if people had indeed lost confidence in fiat money -- then gold and silver might very well be welcome.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), June 24, 1999.

I come from a 20 year backround in the electronics field doing mostly R&d embedded stuff before medical reasons forced me into an early retirement. I worked in airborne early warning systems, robotics, radar low observable cross section technologies for SDI and other defense related goodies,unisys mainframes,drones,etc. I have seen many a project develop from concept to working proto. The Software is always a bitch to get right. Project planners are always promising the sky with all its bells and whisles working in three months or less. So push comes to shove so they borrow what worked from other projects and get it out the door working but buggy. This is the trans-national defense corporations Method of operation for the last 2 decades. Y2k is the payback for letting them produce inferior quality work and standards running our most talented people and our nation into the ground for a lousy few extra dollars. We saw how they ran these insitutions like tyrants. Twenty years of viscious downsizing while raising Ceo's salaries through the roof. Dont mind that we were loosing valuble people who's technical experience was critical in keeping a biological memory of how some of our soceity's mission critical software was designed because they were aging and were prone to need a little more health care once in a while. Cut costs no matter what to make the short term profit look good. Well those decisions are now coming back to haunt us. If you think Large software systems for corporations is going to be tough think about what multibillion line code system must be like to fix for the Dod who monitors our adversaries 24/7. I hope and pray that our adversaries abide by their treaties or it will be very sticky. Money is the key it keeps nations and people happy and far from rebellion. If the banks tank which it could be a possiblity then unrest will not be far behind. The only way to prepare for y2k and survive it is to accept that a 10 is very possible and hope it doesnthappen or get that bad. If they are having that much trouble fixing banking then defense is gonig to have it's share too. I just hope that the Russians,Chinese,French, british, indians and all those other nations who pocess weapons of mass distruction love their children to and decide that peace is the only way to play. They probably are in the same boat so there is hope.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), June 24, 1999.

IMNSHO, it is most likely that we will see a variety of results...some (lucky) places may be a 7 (OK, maybe an 8), others a 10. Many of us have already taken some pretty severe steps (or were led to take them some time back...). I'd much rather it turn out to be a little less than I had prepared for than a little more...eating fresh eggs with lots of food in the pantry won't worry me a bit. No food in the pantry and a lot of hungry grandkids would worry me a lot!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 25, 1999.

A Milne 10 will be at least equal to the "Postman" and I really don't think anyone posting to this forum wants to paticipate in that scenario. Trouble is....it's well within the realm of possibility. Not probability, just possibility. I reiterate what I have posted all along this last 12 months. NO ONE CAN ADEQUATELY PREPARE FOR A 10!! If you think you can, reexamine your preps. You will be way short of what you need.

Brazil 1962--fall of Peron. That was about as close to a 10 as you can get short of all out war. Brazil survived..barely. About 14,000 dead in Rio (and a hell of a lot of Norteamericanos running for their lives).

Central America -- status post Hurricane. Still don't know for sure how many died. Central American countries survived...barely. And at least one government tumbled because of the hurricane and lack of preps.

I expect a 7 or 8 and am desperately trying to prepare for the economic chaos that would ensue. Prepare for a 10? I am trying my best but I don't believe that anyone's best will be good enough should that scenario occur. I pity those that indicate they wish a 10.

"Be careful what you wish for; you might achieve it".

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), June 25, 1999.

Lobo are you out of your mind, nobody especially me wants to see a 10 happen. I am relating what a year and a half of research is pointing to. I have a kid and just recently re-married. The last thing I want to see is an apocalypse now type of senario. But I realize what multiple systematic failures of utilities,banking and defense means. Figure it out for your self. Look at the writing on the wall. the y2k could be an ele event. Massive systematic failures coupled with a solar event called solar max along with high tensions between all the nuclear superpowers its time to pray a real lot for a positive outcome. Preparation of our heart and family is our part, deliverance from harm is the Lord's part.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), June 25, 1999.

Jack,

Your first three points seem good to keep in mind, but I must take issue with the fourth point. It seems to me that there are some very serious choices that would be made one way for a 10 and a very different way for a 6-7. For example, prepping for a 10 could include selling a house that one would not sell prepping for a 6-7.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 25, 1999.

Jack,

Not to get gruesome about it, but I should mention that when prepping for a 10, one is prepping for a situation in which many people would be out of food and water within a few days. In such a situation, some such people would offer what might seem to be large amounts of cash for small amounts of food and/or water.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 25, 1999.

Jack,

I should further mention that I should have my coffee before I start posting in the morning. :-)

But it occurred to me that I should have added to my last previous post. In that situation, it could be dangerous to sell food and/or water, because it could be dangerous to let it be known that you had any to sell! In other words, part of prepping for a 10 would include concealing the fact that you are preparing, unless your preps include an armed fortress.

Jerry

-- Jery B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 25, 1999.

Jerry You hit it right on the nose. So many people are in such heavy denial that they will absoulutely panic when y2k hits. I have gotten to the point that I am not going to broadcast my preps any more. If they havent figured it out by now, I cant help them. My family who God gave me is my Responsibility. If they dont take care of their own they will have to deal with the consequences. I have prepared a little extra food to be given out, but when that is gone that is it. That is my move out of town with family line when crossed. I am a Christian who loves all people but understands that people do strange things when they are desperate. I trust in God to show us the right way to handle the y2k were ever where at. 10 a 9 or anything less.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), June 25, 1999.

It's always been my understanding that a "10" meant kill or be killed. g.i.'s desperatly hiding while have nots starve and kill each other,only to become predators themselves so as to feed their families.In a "10" the only benefit of being prepaired is maybe being a more fit(less starving) predator,if the roving mohawked gangs haven't taken your food after recriuting/killing you. Who prepairs for that?militias maybe.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 25, 1999.

Please all, read James Wesley Rawles' book "PATRIOTS", which is a novel giving the details of what preparation would be necessary and how the survival after an 8-9-10 meltdown would have to proceed to be successful. This book is very difficult to read in that it is very painful, but it is very difficult to put down because one wishes to see the plot played out to its end, hoping for a light at the end of the tunnel. It was depressing to me throughout much of my reading, because I realized that only a few well-prepared, well-armed, highly organized people would actually survive such a meltdown as Rawles portrays happening in 1999. But then I was happy to think that people with solid values who had prepared and done what was necessary to survive could do so ethically and still live to re-create a perhaps better society, even though I'll probably not see that happy ending if it happens in my lifetime. This book gives an entirely new perspective to just about everything.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), June 25, 1999.

Mike...Sorry about that. I was not aiming the '10' at you but you have to admit that there are those (some on this forum and most on certain other forums) that THINK they would delight in a Milne meltdown.

Most of those individuals have never had to worry where their next meal or drink of clean water was going to come from. Most of those folks have never heard a 7.62 go by within an inch of their ear (and didn't have a clue where the shooter was). THOSE are the folks that were the subject of my rant. God help them if their dreams come true (because, if it's a real 10, I won't be able to.) Most of those type folks will last about 3-5 days until they are prey for a stronger predator (like an old lobo wolf, maybe?).

I will make this statement and I will survive the flames....MY FAMILY COMES FIRST AND I WILL DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO ASSURE THEIR SURVIVAL. "And any man that will not care, nurture and protect those and his, may God have mercy on his soul for his family will surely curse his name." From the 'Book of Leadership' for the Brahmin Caste written in 1050 (or so) in Asia

Those that say "Help your fellow man" have never experienced man's inhumanity to man. Having spent a lot of time in places I shouldn't have been and didn't want to be, I can attest that in most cases of a 9 or 10 (local), if you try to help your fellow man, you become an instant victim. I have those I intend to help outside my family but I still must place my family first. We are not discussing how much tax money is necessary for that homeless shelter or how much time you can donate to solicit funds for the new firehouse. We are talking about the actual survival of you and yours. This is not the time to exhibit any liberal tendencies toward the world.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), June 26, 1999.