Milne spotted this story yesterday. Hopefully this is a typo. I have emailed the author for clarification:

Millennium bug could still trigger global recession

by Jo Pettitt

Despite improved worldwide progress towards millennium compliance, there is still a 70 per cent chance of a global recession, a Year 2000 expert warned this week.

At his latest Y2K online conference, millennium guru Ed Yardeni said that he had noticed a much greater effort in remediation over the last few months, with a lot of companies in the US, UK and Europe reaching the testing phase.

However, he commented: "Most surveys are only showing 15 to 20 per cent of companies in these regions have finished work on Y2K issues. Most large companies say they will be ready but are not sure of their suppliers."

He added: "I still think there is a 70 per cent chance of depression, which is pretty much the same expectation I had a year ago."

http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=85461

-- a (a@a.a), June 21, 1999

Answers

anyone know the differance between a recession and a depression

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 21, 1999.

Not only did Milne "spot it," he ranted on it, blasting Yardeni is if the quote was accurate. It isn't. It's sloppy writing/editing. Look at the quote. It's not even consistent with the rest of the story. Milne's smart enough to pick up on that, but he went right ahead with his rant. Be fair, "a", and include Milne's entire post like you usually do.

-- Yep (yougotth@right.com), June 21, 1999.

Yardeni may have misspoke or been misquoted. For an economist to confuse recession and depression is like a carpenter confusing hammer and nail gun. Yardeni has predicted a 70% of chance global recession and provided a defined breakdown where he places the depression risk at 5%.

A recession is generally two (or more) successive quarters of declining production (GDP). There is no agreed upon definition of depression.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 21, 1999.

Depression is the feeling that results from knowing that friends and loved ones don't give a rat's ass about Y2K despite repeated efforts to educated them to the risks.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), June 21, 1999.

In short, a recession is a slowdown of economic activity, the duration is in the range of two fiscal quartes to six eight fiscal quarters. Slowdowns of economic activity are not neccesarily defined by a decline in the Gross Domestic Product to negative, but rather a slowdown in the growth thereof. A depression is often defined as a prolonged recession whose severity exceeds both the timelines and the level of historical contractions of growth. Indeed, depressions often are notable for their negative growth rate.

-- PJ (iop4@hotmail.com), June 21, 1999.

zoobie asked:

anyone know the differance between a recession and a depression?

Recession: You have to tighten your belt.

Depression: You don't have a belt to tighten.

Sincerely,

-- Jim Morris (prism@bevcomm.net), June 21, 1999.

What EVERYONE of these folks needs to say AFTER the FACT is" I TOLD YOU SO". In order to do this they must, at differing times, be on "BOTH SIDES OF THE FENCE" even if they are only on the problem side briefly.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 21, 1999.

I like that Mr Decker "an economist mistaking a recession from a depression is like a carpenter mistaking a hammer from a nail gun." I will use that in the future and credit you accordingly. Thank you

-- PJ (iop4@hotmail.com), June 21, 1999.

Recession: your neighbour loses his job.

Depression: you lose yours.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), June 21, 1999.

Recession: Change to what works... better choices.

Depression: Not much works... on average... very limited choices.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 21, 1999.

All this excitement about a reporters typo. If you listened to Yardenis conference on RealAudio (thread here a few days ago) he specifically said he still sees a 70% chance of a RECESSION. Specifically said 5 % chance of depression.

Yardeni has been steady, so I wonder why people would take this story at face value --- a typo till proven otherwise.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), June 21, 1999.

For those of you who are economic and perhaps political history buffs, you may note that the original use of the term depression arose because the politicians did not want to refer to it as a COLLAPSE or a CRASH. A depression was the polite term for a bump in the road. The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) defined a recession in order to quantify measurements of policy implications, but it also sounded nicer than what many Americans had just gone through at that time.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), June 21, 1999.

-- nothere nothere, thanks for the background. As I recall the economists had a tough time back in 1990 deciding if we had a recession or not and this was "AFTER THE FACT" I believe there was a positive quarter mixed in with some negative ones.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 21, 1999.

I just listened to the audio again to be sure. Here is what Ed said: 5% depression. 45% serious recession. 20% mild recession (6 months or less). 30% not much at all or problems lasting 2-3 days.

Listen to it YOURSELF, eh? just click here

Ed is the very first speaker in the seminar, and he states this in the first segment. If you choose to listen to the other segments, Ed also (perhaps jokingly) states that he's studying Chiropractic at night just in case his predictions are totally off and his name is mud in the economic world.

Anita

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), June 21, 1999.

Anita commented:

" Ed also (perhaps jokingly) states that he's studying Chiropractic at night just in case his predictions are totally off and his name is mud in the economic world. "

Anita, economists are notoriously wrong with little impact on their positions. Contrarians love these guys.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 21, 1999.

I eat dog food.

Anita

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), June 21, 1999.

Recession: when hair recedes upon the scalp

Depression: indentation caused by collective dope slap

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 21, 1999.

Reponse from email to the article's author confirms the typo:

Sorry, yes the quote should read "recession" and not "depression" in the story. Unfortunately when taking notes for the story I was listening to Yardeni's web cast and the sound was not great. He also mentioned depression several times so that's where the confusion came. Thanks for your comments, its always good to hear from our readers - even if we have made a mistake, its nice to know we're being read. Best regards, Jo Pettitt Correspondent VNU Newswire

-- a (a@a.a), June 24, 1999.

The above clarification is a deinifitive demonstration that anyone, anywhere, who uses media accounts to bolster their position, either way, does so at significant risk. Good luck finding the real news about Y2k. It won't appear until after the fact.

-- Yep (yougotth@right.com), June 24, 1999.