Y2K - Why The Government's Machines Won't Make It

By Declan McCullagh and Bruce Van Voorst 6-18-99

There are two little black clocks in John Koskinen's office inside the White House complex. They display not the time of day but how much time is left until the Year 2000. Time is something Koskinen desperately needs more of. He's in charge of making sure the U.S. government's computers don't crash come Jan. 1, 2000.

Koskinen's task is not just daunting; it's impossible. The feds own roughly one-quarter of all the computers in the U.S. The Pentagon alone has about 1.5 million machines--and it keeps discovering more. At last count, at least 4,500 of the government's most vital systems still needed to be repaired. And the studied silence of President Clinton and Vice President Gore on the subject isn't making it any easier to raise the alarm. "This is not a technical problem," Koskinen says. Right. It's a people problem: getting top bureaucrats to listen to him.

So far it hasn't worked. Last week Representative Steve Horn, perhaps the most Y2K-savvy Congressman, gave Uncle Sam's software failing grades. "Under Koskinen," the California Republican growled in a voice that could give anyone what-if nightmares, "government performance has fallen from a D minus to an F." At current debugging rates, 13 of the 24 largest agencies won't have fixed their most crucial computers in time. Among them:

The Federal Aviation Administration. The FAA has plans to ground planes if its air-traffic system isn't repaired--and it may have to carry them out. The government's own accountants complained earlier this year that "at its present rate, the faa will not make it." The Department of Transportation, meanwhile, flunked Horn's report card for its laughably poor efforts to overhaul its 630 most critical systems, which the agency says will be complete, oh, by sometime in 2004. Still, FAA Y2K chief Ray Long insists that air traffic is a top priority, and "there's no doubt in my mind that we're going to meet our [Year 2000] deadlines."

Department of Defense. During Bill Curtis' 27-year career as a military computer programmer, he wrote more than a few lines of code that were century-insensitive. "I made decisions that we could only use two digits for the date," he confesses. Now, as the head of the Department of Defense's Y2K office, Curtis is in charge of fixing his own--and everyone else's--software screwups. It's a job nobody else wanted. Although the Pentagon began Y2K planning in 1995, repairs of the most vital computer systems were only 9% complete this spring. The F-15 and the Navy's Tomahawk missile are two of 34 as yet undebugged weapons systems cited in a report scheduled to be released this week. When pressed, Curtis admits that even the military's most "mission critical" systems--perhaps 2,800 in all--won't be ready in time. Officials insist that America's nuclear arsenal is more or less fail-safe, which means that if the computer systems go haywire, the missiles won't launch. Whether the same is true of Russia's nukes is an open question.

Internal Revenue Service. The good news is that the IRS may not be able to process your tax returns. The bad news is that it won't be handing out any refunds either. Since last fall, says newly installed Commissioner Charles Rossotti, the agency has upped estimates of its Y2K costs repeatedly, from $250 million to $850 million to more than $1 billion. It fell behind its own deadline of having 66 of its 127 most vital systems fixed by January 1998, and still hasn't finished deciding which minicomputers, file servers and PCs need debugging. Even if the IRS gets fixed, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits checks come from the Treasury Department's Financial Management Service, a little-known agency through which almost all the government's payments and collections flow. It's in poor shape. As of March, FMS hadn't finished even the preliminary step of deciding which systems needed to be repaired.

What nobody, not even Koskinen, knows is how bad the crash will be. So why doesn't he press the panic button during speeches and interviews? "Would we do better if I stood up tomorrow and said this is a national crisis?" he asks in reply. Probably not. But it might get the bureaucrats' attention.

--By Declan McCullagh and Bruce van Voorst/Washington

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 19, 1999

Answers

"Still, FAA Y2K chief Ray Long insists that air traffic is a top priority, and "there's no doubt in my mind that we're going to meet our [Year 2000] deadlines."

Yeah, their going to meet their deadlines like the Airbus at the Paris Air Show.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 19, 1999.

Thanks Andy, here is a snip:

"Even if the IRS gets fixed, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits checks come from the Treasury Department's Financial Management Service, a little-known agency through which almost all the government's payments and collections flow. It's in poor shape. As of March, FMS hadn't finished even the preliminary step of deciding which systems needed to be repaired. "

Maybe this is why the Treasury Department fell from a B- to a C in Horn's latest report. This one area alone may tell a rather large story.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 19, 1999.

Andy,

FWIW, the article you posted above is over a year old. It was written on 06/15/1998 not 06/18/1999.

Here is the URL: Link

Sincerely,

-- Jim Morris (prism@bevcomm.net), June 19, 1999.

Oh...thanks alot Andy. Just because it sounds almost exactly like *JUNE 1999*, there is no excuse for posting old stuff. Sheeeeese

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 19, 1999.

Might not be all Andy's fault. He got it from www.sightings.com. Blame Jeff Rense.

-- a (a@a.a), June 19, 1999.

Yes I got it from Jeff Rense.

If the article is a year old it goes to show that they've been doing diddley squat for the last year - the report card (Horn) was not exactly a rave review...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 19, 1999.

Obsolete? No longer applicable? Who cares, it says what we want to hear. Caught in the act? Who cares, it says what we want to hear.

Must be a British thing.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 19, 1999.

Okay - so he goofed, and it's a year old.

Now, what systems mentioned in the story have actually been fixed (as of June this year)?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 20, 1999.

Robert:

Chances are that somebody, somewhere in government, actually accomplished something in the last year. Of course, it may have been only by accident...

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 20, 1999.

Flint,

Sure, they've probably made some headway. Paul Davis told us about some the other day. I believe him. The ultimate question however is, "How much"? Or better, "Is it enough"?

What I find not credible, is the idea that the government has made some genuine headway yet has chosen not to trumpet it to the heavens. After all, they've publicly declared a desire to prevent panic. Can you really credit their failing to "blow their own horn" if they have the wind?

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), June 20, 1999.

"a" wrote: "Might not be all Andy's fault. He got it from www.sightings.com. Blame Jeff Rense."

"a" - This line, particularly on levels you may not ever comprehend, is absolutely PRICELESS! Thanks.

-- CD (not@here.com), June 20, 1999.

Hardliner wrote: What I find not credible, is the idea that the government has made some genuine headway yet has chosen not to trumpet it to the heavens. After all, they've publicly declared a desire to prevent panic. Can you really credit their failing to "blow their own horn" if they have the wind?

Excellent question Hardliner. I've wondered about this myself.

-- CD (not@here.com), June 20, 1999.