Here's some data we've all been looking for. Thanks to Larry Shook, Tom
Atlee and Michael Dowd for passing it on. -- Jan
>From kali@sfo.com (Kali Grosberg)
You may be interested in information I received at a Red Cross Disaster
Mental Health training workshop since it refutes the reason most often
given by corporate and government officials for holding back information
about Y2k -- they don't want people to panic.
This is from their training manual for Disaster Action Team (DAT)
members.
_ _
(from DISASTER MYTHS by Stan Bush)
"One of the most surprising discoveries made in studying citizen
responses is that people do not panic. Other myths are mentioned below,
but this is paramount. Many officials presume they will, but study of
over 300 cases just does not bear this out. There is panic under certain
conditions: 1) when individuals are under immediate and severe danger;
2) when there are limited or closed escape routes; 3)when there is a
lack of communication about what is happening. But all
three conditions must be present. More typically people seek to take
actions to protect themselves, friends and relatives based on the
information and experience they have.
"What at times looks like panic to use (sic) is actually these
protective actions which are a very small percentage of the thousands of
cases studied so apparently our conception of how people will respond is
incorrect. Rather, the opposite tends to happen if there is an extended
time of warning...
"Remember, there are always individual exceptions. What is being
presented here deals with the behavior of the majority of citizens--but
it appears to be the vast majority."
a couple of other myths...
"CRIME. Crime falls drastically during and immediately after a disaster.
It dropped 26.6 percent in New Orleans immediately following Hurricane
Betsy.
"LOOTING. This is one of the most interesting myths identified. Records
show it to be very low. In one disaster, only three percent of the
citizens reported cases of possible looting. It is widespread in civil
disorders, but there is just no evidence to show that it is a major
problem in a disaster. The major problem appears to be the FEAR (their
caps) of looting by officials and citizens. However, police must secure
the area to safeguard against the possibility and to reassure the
citizens."
_ _
Note: Given the above, we might consider the possibility that if safety
officials realize that fear of looting, rather than actual looting, is
the biggest problem, they might be able to reduce violent confrontations
by integrating this information into their disaster training.
Another interesting myth that was relayed to us verbally but was not in
the handout is the myth about the primacy of strong leadership. The
reality seems to be that coordination and cooperation is more
important. Sounds like research proves respecting and trusting others'
abilities wins out over top-down command. Again, I assume the study
refers to disaster situations.
Tom Atlee * The Co-Intelligence Institute * Oakland, CA
-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), June 18, 1999