posit this conundrum:

is it possible that the manufacturers and buyers of jet airliners could have unwittingly built, bought and delivered more commercial aircraft than there is space to park all of them at one time on the airports of the world?

[this was stated yesterday on NPR as a Y2k factoid.]

the implication being that if there should be sufficient fuel shortages in enough locations for a long enough period of time, all aircraft would eventually have to land somewhere - and that there is not enough combined ramp, jetway, or apron space available to physically park all the aircraft extant;

further implication being that runways could not be used for parking since the airlines would believe that "soon" there will be enough fuel for them to be in operation again, thus, keep the runways open;

plus, the runways would need to be kept open for that "last" aircraft up there who is still just a few miles out that needs to land because his fuel is low...

those of you who have the time might enlighten the rest of us as to the rationality, or reality of this.

...if true, possibly the ultimate form of interconnectivity...

the thought is interesting...

Thanks,

Perry Arnett

-- perry arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), June 06, 1999

Answers

True, there are not enough parking spots or gate spaces gate for all the airliners at the airports they regularly serve. Instead of being parked at their destination, planes will be parked at other airports.

If this occurs in an orderly fashion, it will look like military aviation after WWII. Then, some airfields were nothing more than runways amid aircraft parked in every available square foot of space. A trip to Pinal Airpark or Kingman Airport in Arizona, or the Mojave, CA airport is a preview of what this could look like.

However, if the airline industry attempts to operate through rollover then the situation would be very different. If things go bad at or near midnight the FAA would order immediate landings at the nearest available airports. Then we will see aircraft diverted from their intended destinations to the nearest available airport capable of safely handling the plane. There they would be parked in lines along the taxiways until there was no more space, and then the diversions would be directed to the next suitable airport.

Which brings to mind another reason not to be flying over the New Year's season. Not just fears of planes crashing due to Y2K. What would you do if you were winging your way to your retreat and suddenly you found yourself stranded hundreds of miles away at an airport terminal which normally sees maybe only two flights a day? And what about the reaction of locals who might not want or be able to deal with one or more 747-loads of airline passengers?

Could lead to some very interesting situations. I think I'll forgo the commercial flying come September-October.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), June 06, 1999.

Having worked for a large airline, I can tell you that most domestic aircraft are on the ground overnight. Between the hours of 2 AM to 5 AM, few planes are flying. The long haul (red-eye) flights and air freight carriers are the exception. I wouldn't worry about this.

-- Hawthorne (20@00.com), June 06, 1999.

One of the complications during the airline strike a few months ago was that when the planes started flying again, they weren't at the locations they needed to be, causing additional confusion and delays.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), June 06, 1999.

One possibility would be to park many airplanes in the desert next to military air bases. The military and some air leasing companies already do this for excess and obsolete aircraft. To do this, it would be necessary to plan in advance and take many aircraft out of service before the rollover.

-- Incredulous (ytt000@aol.com), June 06, 1999.

Salt Lake?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 06, 1999.

may I post an addendum, please?

the premise of the question is that:

1) most airlines and airport managers will evade the issue of the possibility of fuel shortages and will thus try to keep planes flying and airports open until the absolute last moment

2) there will be no dry runs or drills for how many planes can one park in X amount of space in how short a period of time

3) thus, there will be little opportunity for "planned" diversions of aircraft to previously unprepared alternate destinations

4) thus, the premise suggests that : all planes will have to be on the ground in a very short period of time, with little or no forewarning, with little or no pre-planning for the 'event'- coping with the possibility of electrical outages, radio outages, GPS outages, fuel shortages or empty tanks, few or no runway lights, beacons, extra donkey drivers, et al...

just a little more to ponder...

PJ

-- iperry arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), June 06, 1999.

I have seen this "parking" business mentioned before. I must say I am totally amazed by it. There is parking space everywhere. More than enough to go around. That is not going be a problem. What is in short supply is *gate* parking space. Planes would be towed to areas with miles of parking space. JFK alone could handle a thousand or more parked airplanes. Why does anyone think this would a problem? It might end up looking like a "used airplane" sales lot, but that's about it. You can pack those planes in like sardines if you want to. No Problem.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 06, 1999.

if it is a problem,sections of the interstate can be closed off and used as runways.the interstate is part of the post war effort

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.

Gordon

Don't be too amazed. If these people don't have some kind of bizarre imponderable to worry about then physiology takes over and they have to actually start "THINKING" for themselves. And that would never do.

Usually it's safe just to let them fixate for a while. It keeps them off the street. Mind you, if you can come up with tomorrow's "Irrelevant, misinformed and obscure problem" for everyone to bat around, you could win a major prize.

Take Care

-- What if tomorrow (Was@just.like.today?), June 07, 1999.

I agree - much ado about a small, but irritating, physical problem. Physical space can be solved in many ways, including "nesting" nose to tail with planes between each other. Just have to be careful....parking them is not a problem.

I agree - very much a problem for "care and feeding" of the displaced passengers though. remeber the extreme distress that Northwest (and other) airline passengers had in January's snowstorm?

Travel problems in Oct - Nov? Probably only when/if the FAA "slows down" traffic while they "retrain" the traffic controllers in the new systems, new screens, new software, new hardware.....and as those new installations breakdown - as they have in the previous "test" installs.

Travel, mail, shipping (UPS/FEDEX/USPS/DHL) problems in early Jan - Feb? Very, very, very likely - from these problems, from fuel and airport disruptions at many hubs (Atlanta, Birmingham, New Orleans for example) and as traffic is delayed from overseas airports.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 07, 1999.