Having read DeJagers latest summary wherein he advises 2-3 weeks of preparations, and offers his assessment on various probabilities of "industry-wide" problems, would anyone offer their reasoned opinion on his assessments? For myself, credible technical people is to whom I owe my own particular awareness - Peter being one of special note. I thereofre tend to view his opinion with special interest.

-- Anonymous, April 17, 1999

Answers

While this doesn't answer your question, it may give you some insight into my general opinion, as an ex-procurment manager. The general lead time today for a high tension transformer is 18 months, with no y2k problem. It is my understanding that we do not make them in this country any more. Now - fix it in 2-3 weeks.

-- Anonymous, April 17, 1999

What's so credible about getting on a plane the night of (albeit his family won't be joining him). This is just unnecessary macho puffery, which for me, casts a suspicious shadow on his other reasonings. I'd treat Mr. de Jager's opinion as just a small piece of the huge mosaic of information out there.

-- Anonymous, April 17, 1999

This was one of DeJager's better efforts lately, but there is a premise that is problematical. He assumes that remediation among the big boys -- banks, power, the telcos, and transportation -- will be successfully completed.

If that is true, I think the scenario plays pretty well.

Tom

-- Anonymous, April 17, 1999

Tom, I agree with you about that DeJager statement. Can't figure why anybody would want to make such a foolish promise this far out from the rollover. Makes me think of those times, as a kid, when someone would say they were going to dive off the high board (20') into the pool. They would get up there, take a look down, and crawl back to the ladder. So much for "I'm gonna do it" macho mania.

-- Anonymous, April 17, 1999

Hate to criticize, especially as I love the guy, especially when he was ranting before the senate subcomitee that completing the Euro before Y2K was suicidal (June 1998), but I wonder whether PJ doesn't feel compelled to tell a little white lie. Not that anyone knows (is anything known with certainty about Y@K), however, the technical problem will not go away from people worrying, it will be solved (mitigated) by people working in a stable work environment> A litle white lie is not at all neccessarily unethical. However, for comedy's sake I only wish airplanes had elevators. Everyone cautions with a straight face to avoid elevators around the millenium. VCRs and microwaves may misbehave, but an airship with thousands of embedded chips flying at 600 miles an hour 6 miles high, it's worth giggling over to think it might have a problem. Do any chips optimize air-fuel ratios, are any involved with hydraulic flight control systems? Just once I wish media, government and industry might just think I graduated Junior High School. It's been reported that (sorry you'll have to confirm it yourself) dockside cranes could malfunction at the millenium. After a few beers this Saturday night I would say I've heard tell that the North Atlantic gets pretty d___ cold come Jan 1. I'll say a prayer for Dejager. Heaven knows where the great Jubilee 2000 may find me but at present my hopes do not include standing in the Boiler room of a large high rise or for that matter hurtling at 600 miles an hour 6 miles above the Atlantic, please let's get some perspective.

In Christ, Paul Maher, MD

-- Anonymous, April 25, 1999