Has anyone checked out Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot lately? Did I miss something? I guess a few companies announcing success (or announcing they are *near* success) has pushed them over the edge? From the home page:

Important Notice

As time wears on, it is becoming obvious that Gary North, et. al. do not hold a straw on the truth. None of their major predictions have come true; none of their future predictions look remotely possible. The system is not going to collapse come Y2K. The evidence so overwhelmingly points the other way that there is no need for me to run a site like this.

I will maintain my public forum for as long as people continue to post on it. Please go to my forum at http://www.smu.edu/cgi-bin/Nova/get/gn.html. It still has excellent debates, commentary, and Y2K information.

Please remember these facts about Gary North and Y2K:

He has predicted several different collapses in the past. None of them ever came close to being correct. He is a radical Christian Reconstructionist. He has publicly and clearly stated that he wants to bring down the system. If it happens, it will fulfill his own prophesies. The Y2K preparedness industry is pulling in a lot of money. Their predictions of gloom are very self serving. The single most destructive thing that can happen because of Y2K are panics or the public losing confidence in the banking system, division of labor, government, etc. This is sad because the public will not lose confidence because of the facts of the situation. They will lose confidence because of lies and twisted interpretations coming from the Gary Norths and Ed Yourdons out there.

The content of this site is entirely the creation and responsibility of its owner. The owner of the networked system upon which this site resides does not in any way endorse this page and is not responsible for any of its content. You are visitor number .

This page last updated 2-16-99.

Want to contact me directly? Occasionally I'll check my mail. Email me at gn_is_an_idiot@yahoo.com. However, please post comments about this site's content to the public forum so that everyone can see what you think.

-- Online2Much (hard@work._), February 22, 1999

Answers

Time for a few helpful links...

Assessing Fortune 500 compliance:

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Computech/Issues/hbela9902.htm

Fortune 500 completion dates for remediation:

http://www.flybyday.com/Y2K/

Good news? "No Problem - Or Is It":

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/DSA/VP/vp9906.htm

Government misses September 30, 1998 deadline:

http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1005/fcw-newsy2kshort-10-5-98.html

Chicago area responding slowly to Y2K:

http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,SAV- 9901010066,00.html

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

Fortune 500 completion dates for remediation:

http://www.flybyday.com/y2k/

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

Gee, I wonder if FEMA, the Red Cross et al knows this. They must be relieved that "None of their major predictions have come true; none of their future predictions look remotely possible." Looks like we can all jump back in the stock market, give away our supplies, and go back to sleep. (Can you sense the sarcasm here?)

-- Online2Much (hard@work._), February 22, 1999.

Was listening to Bob Brinker of Moneytalk yesterday and the tone in his voice wasn't all that joyful. He's expecting a big sell off and a bear market in the near future. There was a stockbroker that called his program yesterday who is selling his seat on the stock exchange for $900,000 because he sees the handwriting on the wall. The stockbroker went back to school and got a degree in computer programming, said that's where the high paying jobs of the future will be. My point...these two individuals are in the know and close to what is going on. Usually Bob Brinker is always upbeat about the future, but I didn't hear that from him yesterday.

-- hearditontheradio (heardontheradio@listen.com), February 22, 1999.

Online2Much,

"a radical Christian Reconstructionist" One must have a boogeyman to fucus on.

In 70 AD the Romans were set to sack Jerusalem, the Jews had several victories over the Roman Army and were confident they would break the seige and chase the Romans off. Finally the Romans gave notice that the population had three days to leave else die.

The Christians in the city recalled a warning regarding the destruction of Jerusalem and fled. The Jews stayed and suffered a massive defeat and the destruction of their beloved city.

Not gonna post the references (Bible stuff) but if anyone wants the specifics they can send an email and I will send it to you. Just a few short Quotes and all can be checked out in history.

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), February 22, 1999.

For the record...

I didn't post this because I agree with it, I posted it because I thought it was odd that the GN parody site was taken down (except the discussion forum) and replaced with the above message. I find it hard to believe that anyone could think that because a few companies have "made it", and a couple of industry associations have released glowing (self reported) reports, that the entire Y2K issue has been solved.

-- Online2Much (hard@work._), February 22, 1999.

Heard it... Thanks for the Brinker update. I can't catch him much lately (he is broadcasting at a very inconvenient time locally), but as of 2 or 3 weeks ago Y2K or bad news didn't seem to be on his radar. Did he connect the upcoming big sell/bear market with Y2K? Is he predicting a "gift horse" buy back situation anytime prior to 2000?

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), February 22, 1999.

Statement By
Joel Willemssen
Director, Civil Agengies Information Systems
Accounting And Information Management Division
U.S. General Accounting Office
Before The Subcommittee On Government Management,
Information, And Tehcnology Of The
Committee On Government Reform And Oversight
U.S. House Of Representatives
January 20, 1999

-- Arnie Rimmer (arnie_rimmer@usa.net), February 22, 1999.

Boy, did this come up at the right time! Let us all take a look at this genuine Cory Hamasaki chart, shall we?

http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Vault/1157/jo-anne.htm

Now note that we were supposed to have an "8" in January. Hmm, that means almost as bad as December 1999. And over half as bad as his prediction for January, 2000. In fact, January and February combined right now are a '13', January 2000 is only a '14'. Guess Cory has decided Y2K will be a 'bump in the road'. Or you have to admit his predictions so far are full of S**T. Take your choice - no middle ground here - either we have already seen it almost as bad as the worst or CH was wrong!

Of course I am just going to hear that this is 'OLD NEWS'. So sorry Charlies - that is the nature of the prediction biz. Old NEWS is what counts - and CH fell flat on his face.

AND - this kind of blows off the lid on the guys who have called me a liar for bluntly stating that many Y2K predictions have failed. SEE THE PROOF. FOLLOW THE LINK. Or just read weather report #87.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 22, 1999.

Paul,

Maybe a bad prediction (or predictions) has made you stop preparing for Y2K, but it hasn't stopped the American Red Cross, the National Guard or FEMA from preparing.

Don't forget about the other bad predections as well, such as the U.S. government being finished with its remediation by September 30, 1998, or most of the business world and banks by December 31, 1998. Even the Federal Reserve Board isn't compliant yet, although they seem close...

http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9902/09/feds.y2k.idg/

[snip]

The Federal Reserve Board, which clears bank-to-bank payments and automated payments such as electric bills, has certified 98% of its mission-critical systems as year 2000-compliant, with the rest due to be completed by April 1, a spokeswoman for the Washington-based agency said.

[snip]

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

Paul,

Here are two other failed predictions: that after having missed the September 30, 1998 deadline, the government would be finished by March 31, 1999. And there's the prediction or estimate on what Y2K remediation would cost the government. The figure tripled between February 1997 and November 1998...

http://www.newsbytes.com/pubNews/124805.html

[snip]

He said the GAO now estimates more than $7 billion will be required to insure Year 2000 readiness among so-called mission-critical systems throughout federal agencies. Walker added that the Mar. 31, 1999, compliance date likely will see a good deal of stragglers.

"Sixty-one percent of mission-critical systems are Year 2000- compliant on average, but averages do not disclose significant differences...within the agencies," Walker testified.

Bennett's concern that Senate Appropriations does not sponsor a blank check policy for compliance was contrasted by comments from committee member Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., who said that with "11-and-a-half months (to go until) the Year 2000, we need to see that whatever funding is necessary is provided."

"In November 1998, (the GAO estimated) about $7.2 billion, triple the aggregated original estimate in February 1997," Walker said. "And we simply don't have enough data to say whether more will be needed."

[snip]

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

If we look at ALL the facts objectively I think we KNOW who the big fat idiot is....and it ain't GN.

-- Eye on Y2K (bugscaresme@mellinium.com), February 22, 1999.

Kevin - are you throwing up straw men or what? Comparing the position of the Red Cross to that of Cory Hamasaki is silly - it comes off like comparing an elephant to a mole.

Red Cross position ___ Stock disaster supplies to last several days to a week for yourself and those who live with you. This includes having nonperishable foods, stored water, and an ample supply of prescription and nonprescription medications that you regularly use. See Your Family Disaster Supplies Kit for suggestions.

http://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html

Whole Red Cross Y2K site at above link.

Now lets look at Cory Hamasaki and preparing for Y2K.

What are these plans? Write hundreds of thousands of checks by hand? Print foodstamps using Quicken? Let the pensioneers go hungry. My Plan-C is to hide out on my pal's 100+ acre farm, live in a 12x30 foot shed with 12 other people, clenching an SP1

I will admit up front that old CH does not try to recommend anything for anyone. I think he is scared of lawsuits. But there is his PLAN C - of course writing that as a well known 30 year veteran mainframe (funny, now he gets reported as an OS2 geek some places) won't scare anyone - course not.

Anyhow, I hate to give it, but here is the link to all his scary stuff

http://www.vistech.net/users/rsturge/cory_launch.html

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 22, 1999.

Its amazing how these kinds of discussions always seem to degenerate into whether one's "faith" in Gary North, or the U.S. Government, or whatever, should remain intact after seeing previous predictions that have gone wrong.

Ask yourself this: Based on the evidence -- and certainly Gary North's www.garynorth.com web site is loaded with evidence, forget his commentary and religous views -- do you believe that there is at least a significant probability that we are going to be in deep yogurt by Jan 1, 2000? And do you believe that preparing as if this will happen is a prudent thing to do, because "it is better to have and not need rather than to need and not have"?

Nobody knows what will happen with Y2K -- not Gary North, not Cory Hamasaki, not John Koskinen. You pays you money and you takes you chances. And its getting very late in the game to even be debating this obvious truth.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), February 22, 1999.

Seven billion. Once again, get real. I remember clearly that one year (78 I think) in the late 70's HEW lost or could not account for over 3 billion. And we have had 20 years inflation since then. In a trillion plus budget 7 billion is not even a blip on the screen. When it gets up to the level of what the Feds spend on the "war on drugs" then it will amount to something.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 22, 1999.

Paul,

I'm not throwing up a straw man, but, are you? I mentioned the Red Cross AND the National Guard AND FEMA. I also brought up numerous business and government deadlines being missed.

The fact that recommendations by the American Red Cross resemble a "bump-in-the-road" scenario isn't enough to convince me to stop preparing for Y2K. I have many, many reasons for taking Y2K seriously. Here are just a few of them...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000UdL

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

Paul,

Kicking ass and taking down names, I see. Good for you. But I still wonder why you are bothering with these uniformed meme's?

No matter what you tell them they switch topics or ignore true facts or (like meme kevin) go into "link wars" mode; thinking that amassing a pile of "factoids" will somehow bolster their rapidly erroding position. They refuse to accept that they have bought into the insurance sales pitch...now they will do whatever it takes to defend their new-found Y2K religion. I wonder if they ever ask themselves "why do I spend so much time trying to convince myself this thing will be so bad?"

Really, how long can it take to set up one week (or two or even a month) of preps? A day or two? maybe a week? O.K. for someone living paycheck to paycheck it might take a month or more. Big deal.

GET IT DONE...THEN MOVE ON!

Most folks here are in the unenviable position of having to look back in Spring of 2000 and say to themselves,

"Great Coodillymoodilly! I've Wasted an entire YEAR of my life worrying over something I didn't fully understand!..."

Anyway, I hope some of you gloomier folk will have the integrity to Apologize to the Paul Davis' and others on this forum when the time comes...

-- Mutha Nachu (---@getting a good laugh.com), February 22, 1999.

Ok, here's FEMA, link and snip.

http://www.fema.gov/y2k/99036.htm

Atlanta, February 17, 1999 -- The transition to the Year 2000 is not expected to bring major national problems with the nation's infrastructure and the country can avoid localized disruptions if work begins now to make systems compliant, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Deputy Director Mike Walker said today.

Darned if I can find anything on the Army National Guard pages about personal preparations. Most Guard outfits don't have home pages yet.

Look here, the doom and gloom is mostly coming from the web, generally without supporting evidence. If you don't realize this, you need to get out more. I know of no official US govt. agency that has come out with any worse official statement than FEMA or the Red Cross.

And how am I throwing up straw men? You are the guy who mentioned the Red Cross and old CH in the same breath.

And don't complain about the Guard preparing for worst case stuff. I work for the Corps of Engineers and they prepare all year to fight spring floods. Many/most years they don't have any. I would rather they prepared for the possible floods than just ignored them. But they DON'T evacuate the Mississippi river bottoms every spring "to be safe if the worst happens". And a hundred year record flood is a lot more likely than the bottom falling out due to Y2K, IMHO anyhow.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 22, 1999.

Hey, Mutha, how ya been.

I like your post, there. Good points. On some days, Y2K really IS like a Christmas decoration that needs to be put away, already.... ('course, this is only true for those who are finished preparing.)

But what about people who really NEED to prepare (DC residents - particularly lower-income - come to mind, lately?), who won't be warned? Who should be warning them? One good power-out-induced riot in DC and the streets could literally be wet with blood.

Also, it's apparent that you "snapped" (or whatever you did) to Y2K AFTER the Jan. 11 NERC report. Remember, many on this forum became aware of the problem when news of Utilities Remediation was DISMAL.

I certainly can appreciate your viewpoint, though.

And where did the email-address-imagery go?

-- Lisa (lisa@here.now), February 22, 1999.

It's Back!

Sorry to disappoint, Lisa... I've known about "y2k" before it was even called that. Been actively involved in de-bunking Fear Mongering GRIFTERS since June of 98. Others have been involved ALOT longer than that. Power outage for the streets to be wet with blood in DC? You need to listen closer to the news. They already ARE. Its been said DC is better refered to as a "thought free drug zone".

-- Mutha Nachu (---@blazingscarletsunset.com), February 22, 1999.

Paul,

Some statements by FEMA are for public consumption and some are not. Here's something else from FEMA:

http://www.fema.gov/nwz99/99001.htm

[snip]

FEMA Urges Local Communities, Emergency Services Sector & Public to Get Ready Now for Y2K Full FEMA Coverage of Y2K Issues Washington, January 6, 1999 -- Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) officials are urging the emergency management, fire and emergency services communities and the public to get ready now for Y2K.

"It is very important that counties, municipalities, school districts and other organizations that have not yet begun to work on Y2K issues, start now," FEMA Deputy Director Mike Walker said. "While some failures will be minor annoyances, some may have more serious consequences." [end snip]

I never said that the National Guard is encouraging personal preparation. I said that *they* are preparing for Y2K. However, here is what the Guard thinks some of the potential impacts of Y2K are:

http://www.ngb.dtic.mil/y2k/impact.htm

[snip]

So, what can Americans expect some of the difficulties to be? Well, they range from minor inconveniences to major disruptions -- the problem is not simply confined to personal desktop computers. Programmable alarm clocks and coffee makers may not work, heating and air-conditioning systems may malfunction and some video cassette recorders may not work. Even some day-date-type wristwatches may malfunction.

On the serious side, some telecommunications systems may malfunction, possibly impacting emergency 911 operations. Worldwide, transportation systems -- air, land and sea travel -- may be affected. Reservations systems may malfunction, radar and other safety-related systems may be influenced and radio communications may be impacted. Traffic lights may not operate properly and toll gates may malfunction, causing massive traffic backups. Police and fire emergency response might be affected, as well as electronic life- support equipment in ambulances and hospitals.

We may find ourselves unable to access buildings equipped with electronic security systems, or stranded in high-rise buildings when electronically programmed elevators malfunction. Large segments of our nation's electric power grid could fail, causing massive blackouts. Water distribution systems could fail. Distribution of vital petroleum and natural gas could be hampered if electronically controlled pipelines malfunction. Even our financial well-being might be affected if automated payroll systems malfunction, banks close and ATM cards fail to work.

All of these possibilities, and many more, might affect our lives for months, if not years, into the 21st century. The "Millennium Bug" is a global problem of immense dimension.

[snip]

There are many reasons for taking Y2K seriously. Another is the many remediation deadlines that have been missed...

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

Mutha Nachu,

To borrow your phrasing, I sometimes wonder why people like you spend so much time trying to convince themselves and other why this thing won't be so bad. Even though I'm not a racist, I wouldn't go to a Neo- Nazi forum and try to change the minds of people posting there.

And, I'm defending a "rapidly eroding position"? I don't think so. I would admit the situation was improving IF most remediation deadlines were being met...but they aren't.

Sure, there's a lot of PR-firm generated "good news" articles in newspapers right now. It doesn't change the fact that out of the Fortune 500, five (5) have completed remediation, and three (3) say they will miss having remediation done by December 31, 1999:

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Computech/Issues/hbela9902.htm

And need I mention again that not only did the government miss its September 30, 1998 deadline, but that it's also going to miss its revised deadline of March 31, 1999?

I like dealing in facts. People who don't take Y2K seriously and argue the point often resort to ad hominen attacks.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 22, 1999.

The US govt. is the largest single enterprize of any sort in the world anywhere. Many single depts. have budgets larger than most countries entire GDP. Of course they will slip and have problems. BUT it is also an 'of course' that most of what they do has very little impact on the life of the average American. (If you want to conclude from this that the govt. is too big, feel free.) When we had the govt. shutdown a couple years back, the country kept right on running. Of all possible Y2K problems the govt. worries me the least. What really needs to keep going are just Military functions (and not all of them - I don't care if the computer at the day care at some AFB is compliant or not), the IRS, and a couple other things. Passing out welfare belongs to the states, and the Social Security system is supposed to already be compliant.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 23, 1999.

Right, Mutha... OK, shoulda said MO' blood in the streets.

-- Lisa (lisa@lisa.lisa), February 23, 1999.

Laughing my head off here - LMAO too, if you haven't read the latest Y2K weatherman report, do it. Ol' boy has done swapped sides. Says Gary North is just wrong. HOHAHOHA.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), February 23, 1999.

That last post doesn't sound the mature adult I know Paul Davis is. Was it really Paul or a troll?

-- (xo@xo.xo), February 23, 1999.

Why shouldn't Paul get a good laugh off you Y2K uninformed? I know I sure do!

HA HAH HAH HA! heh heh heh... stop, please- your killing me here! LOL!

-- Mutha Nachu (---@shimmeringsnowscape.com), February 24, 1999.

Shimmering snowscapes.......................

Hey, Mutha, personal question you don't have to answer: what's your profession? Other than the natural one, that is.....

-- Lisa (wide@eyed.wonder), February 24, 1999.

Pssst...Lisa! I would tell you...but then I would have to kill you!LOL!

ta-ta

-- Mutha Nachu (---@coboltbluedeepwater.com), February 26, 1999.