What about YOU REDUXgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
It is about time we resurected the What about You thread, so, if exerything goes acording to planhttp://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000B0N
the above is a link (NO Not a HOT link, I haven't gotten that far in the HTML primer elswhere on this bbs) to the previous thread.
What we'd like you to do if you haven't done so in the old thread, is give us some idea where you have come from, when you became Y2KAware, What you expect for the next 14-26 months.
Name is optional, but please use the name you are posting as, OK???
As an example, I'll use a wandering dummy who just walked in...me.
But first, lets post a couple of scales to use. (Appologies to BuddY, Robert, etc but I thought I'd use Cory's (I know they aren't his) Estabrook and Edwards scales
0: No problem. Nothing will happen. (LaLa Land). 1: Minor problems, 3-5% of businesses perish. Minor recession. Government slows perceptibly. 2: Some problems, 5-8% of businesses gone, government creaks. Good-sized recession. 3: Significant problems, ca. 10% of businesses perish, government shudders. Large recession. 4: Heavy problems, ca. 15% of businesses down. Government partially ineffective. Large recession plus - think of 1982 + 1979 + 1974. 5: Severe problems, 15-20% of businesses down. Depression, 20% unemployed. Some parts of global economy very shaky. 6: Partial collapse of global economy. Big depression. National gov ineffective, local ones shaky but functioning. 7: Total collapse of global economy, major loss of infrastructure. 8: Reorganization at regional level, some pre-industrial reversion. 9: Limited civil and international warfare, widespread loss of life. 10: Opportunistic military conquest leading to nuclear winter. Dave Eastabrook.
Edwards scale: > The Edwards survey goes something like this: 1-- it ain't going to happen. 3-- serious downturn, 80 hour workweeks until 2001. 5-- TEOTWAWKI, start hoarding now. One additional factor, the Edwards scale is open ended. You are allowed to vote 6, 7, or 8. Phil Edwards Devisor of Edwards Beermat Scale of Y2K Disaster Projection
OK::::::
Chuck da Night Driver (or "Chuck dnd" or "etc" You get the idea!) I am a night driver for one of the executive sedan services in Cleveland (city not needed but nice!). I have been a Systems Analyst, Retail Manager, EMT, EMT-P (Paramedic), Volunteer with the Red Cross in multiple capacities, Ham Radio/SKYWARN operator, SAR (Search And Rescue) Team member in the Adirondaks (NY). I have a BS in Political Science, and an MBA in Info Systems from a little Engineering, Hockey and Business School in Northern NY (Clarkson Univ), and have spent a year out of my misspent youth travelling among (F)friends and living in an intentional Quaker Community called New Swarthmoor, while learning about things so esoteric as Nonviolent Civil Disobedience, Street theater, certain levels of Christianity, etc. [Those of you who have read my posts and sense a bit of schizophrenia, please try to remember that this would have been 28-30 years ago and allow for growth in different dierctions!! ;>) ]
On the above scales i see myself as being Estabrook 4.5 - 6 and Edwards at about 4.5. I also will reserve the right to a sliding 7-10+ (Estabrook) if the dislocations last more than about 3 weeks, and if there is serious looting. If this happens, the infrastructure may well be lost, and we then have TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) or a quick throwback to about the 1850's or 1880's.
SEE HOW SIMPLE AND PAINLESS THIS CAN BE!!
Also, anyone who HAS answered these ??'s and would like to modify their answer, Plaese Feel Free!!!
Chuck
-- Chuck a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 12, 1998
What about you?
-- Buddy (DC) (buddy@bellatlantic.net), November 12, 1998.
That link you gave was What about You #2 Chuck. I guess it'll work though. I'm reposting the table below from the "Diane Scale" thread. I think Cory H. is a member of WDCY2K... ________ I didn't realize that the Wash, DC Year 2000 Group had already made up a scale which I think is superior to mine.Here it is:
Table 1. Levels of impact in the WDCY2K survey
SCALE IMPACT OF YEAR 2000 PROBLEMS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES 0 No real impact 1 Local impact for some enterprises 2 Significant impact for many enterprises 3 Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies 4 Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents 5 Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks 6 Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies 7 Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions 8 Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law 9 Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread social disruptions and martial law 10 Collapse of U.S. government; possible famine Source: http://www.wdcy2k.org/survey/
Oh yeah, I guess I'll call it...Cory/Eastabrook scale...3 Edwards scale...3.5 WDCY2K scale...6
-- Buddy (DC) (buddy@bellatlantic.net), November 12, 1998.
Where to start? (Keep it brief!) OK but...Grew up in St. Paul, MN (it was Minnesota then.) Catholic military high school, drafted after graduation; walking tour of Europe at a bad time, Hurtgen Forest in Dec. 1944, (noisy, hungry, scared); back home 1945, GI Bill at the Univ. of Minnesota (Eng. Lit., ha), seven years wandering. Worked at the Nevada Probing Ground during one of the test series (Teapot). Got to see all the shots from a few miles away. Indescribable! Hope I don't see any more.
One thing led to another, married 1957, still with it. Four kids, six grandchildren so far. Design draftsman, first structural, then special trackwork. Ret. 1990. Copy of "Remnant Review" on Y2K showed up in the mailbox last April. Thought about that. Thought a lot about that. Got into hunting up stuff on the Net. Still having cognitive dissonance episodes-- nahhh-- it can't be that bad! -- but they're less frequent. Same lack of success getting others to consider Y2K.
Estabrook-- in the 7 to 9 range. It'll vary by region and locality. Edwards-- 4.5 & up -- who can tell. Same qualification.
One thing I'm sure of -- we can't revert to the modes of 150 years ago quickly! That infrastructure is gone. Even under relative social order it would take considerable time to restore. Think harness-broke horses, mules, truck gardens, wagons, coal furnaces, wood stoves, steam trains, streetcars, stores in walking distance, ice boxes, (ice!), local dairies, steel mills, blacksmiths, inner cities-- good grief, Charlie Brown!
I figure something will be worked out. Hope whoever works it out has the grit to do it differently this time. It'll take a while.
A book to take to the bunker-- to be read by candle light-- Oswald Spengler, The Decline of the West
Speaking of bunkers -- it does seem really clueless to format your survival around a fortress and weapons. What do you do with the bodies? Can you survive a siege? So you've got 6,000 rounds-- eventually they'll be used up. There'll always be another bunch coming down the road. Each one gnarlier than the last. Sooner or later somebody will remember fire arrows. Fageddaboudit.
-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 12, 1998.
Aargh. Make that "Nevada Proving Ground."
-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 12, 1998.
Hi! been lurking for 6 months, got y2k born in May, my Dad gave me a gary north remnant report! Been searching and preparing ever since. Im a computer integrator, trainer and web developer working on defense programs for DOD. Im 49 with 5 boys (2 at home), 3 grand kids and a wonderful wife who is in denial but supportive of my preparation efforts. She is oriental and doesn't read english very well and like a lot of women just doesn't want to here about how bad it will be. We live in N california, have our home up for sale (may have an offer tomorrow) and are hoping to buy a sierra mountain home. I am afraid for my kids and grandchildren that their future may not be very bright. My take is an eastabrook 5-6 and an edwards 4. My company is a fortune 500 and is a year behind, dod is a total mess but the real critical systems will be ready due to the requirements for any new expenditures on DOD systems can only happen if the system is y2k compliant or under contract for y2k. Preciate everyones input and insight. See ya on the other side. Papa Bear
-- Papa Bear (it.guy@usa.net), November 13, 1998.
My name's Leo, and you can guess at my surname from my email address. I'm an 18 year old in Sydney, Australia- just finished the HSC exams, which were relatively useless to me since I plan to study in an American Ivy League college anyway (to that end I've done the SAT 1 once, scored 1400, have subsequently scored well into the high 1500s on practise papers. Why am I so immodest? Generally because I hate being thought of as a kid and thus see the need to show that I'm NOT dumb. Plan to study marketing/film production at college, then get an MBA; I'm already learning my second language and intend to be fluent eventually in maybe a dozen. In high school, had a reputation as an entepreneur; I was the first guy in our year -by about 4 years- to get a job when at 10 I became a paperboy, and I've since made a couple of thousand dollars through various schemes/scams such as copying video game CDs in 1996, exporting fireworks from Canberra (can be bought in shops) to Sydney (where they can't be) at a 200% gross and 145% net profit, and more recently making souped-up 486-33s for people to play network Doom on (sold 12, profit $800). Plan to make some money out of y2k, although I haven't yet found a way I can do and still live with myself- I am NOT going to scalp generators to people in Dec 99! (So now that I've established myself as a teenager with an inferiority complex...) :) I became aware of y2k a while ago, but it was only on the weekend that I learned it could affect more than a couple of automatic doors and personal computers. In the last 6 days I've been gathering all the information I can, implementing it into what I already know (I like sociology and history; demographics are cool ;) ), and confidently predicting disaster. My predictions:Estabrook- 9.5. I can't see a nuclear war happening, but I CAN quite easily see 90% or more of the American population die.
Edwards scale- 7.
If this was only a computer problem and we had a great society where everyone was reasonably helpful, then I'd say Estabrook 3 or 4, at worst 5, and Edwards 2.5. But this is happening at the worst possible time- at the same time as both a depression and a socio collapse are imminent. This is going to trigger both, and it is going to accentuate both -they'll all accentuate each other- and the Second Amendment (which we in Australia do NOT have, incidentally and IMO fortunately; of course, hypocrite that I am I'll be armed with at least one reliable automatic rifle WTSHTF, but that's because I'll be in the US) will act like petrol on the fire.
I can't see society reverting entirely to that of the last century. I can see most people living in some way like people had then, living off agriculture and simple tech. However, there is going to be a lot of old stuff sticking around- I see it as perfectly plausible there'd be a radio station intact somewhere, and enough people would have irreplaceable radios to be able to listen to it/them. I also think electricity would be at least a minor factor -bike generators at least. Where anyone is powerful enough to look beyond survival -regional governments, for instance- I think the primary focus would be on restoring technology, probably (at first) to make rifle and pistol ammo, or repair engines to run on methanol. Eventually -slowly- things would fix up. This assumes that conflict has been kept to a reasonable level. I see it as possible that combatants will eventually decide that "old tech" is a valuable resource that should be captured, not destroyed.
-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), November 13, 1998.
First, I'll try to fix the italics. Second, (I'll try to do this right) I think this is the link you were looking for:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000B6V
-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 13, 1998.
Jon, you're a good teacher yourself!!!
-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 13, 1998.
10Q 10Q 10Q!!! 10Q Gayla!!SHEESH!! 18!! Precocious lil' guy!!
CR, standing in semi-jellous awe at the gall!
yes -5 sp!!
-- Chuck a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 13, 1998.
Lets see, education, B.A. in English Literature, Secondary Teaching Credential, M.B.A. in Management (Marketing emphasis), Life Experience, or should I say, many lifetimes, in this one.Started out as a starry-eyed high school teacher, disillusioned fast. Traveled. Moved to career counseling with a non-profit organization. Traveled. Worked for Pepperdine University (that Christian school), and earned an M.B.A. Traveled. Started in the online industry back in 1982 as a consultant and later Director of Operations for an S.F. Information Broker doing competitive intelligence research. (Those were the days when the internet was still AARPA net). Traveled.
Founded a software development company in Silicon Valley, too early, with not enough funding. Had a silly idea that people were afraid of on-line and needed to be safely shown how to use it. Searched online information services, on a 320K baud modem, with free passwords on Dows Jones New Retrieval, Dialog Information Services, CompuServe, and helped beta-test GENIE. (Every one of those info-databases had their own off-the-wall, esoteric, nasty search command structures. BIG pain). Developed an industry first offline sampler demo disk for Dow Jones, which increased subscriber usage and was nominated by the IIA Information Industry Association for an innovative marketing award. (Coded the darned prototype demo myself... never again). Spoke/prognosticated at online industry conferences. (Even remember a tacky exhibit booth for a start-up company called America Online, with an obnoxious newcomer, telling them they were all wrong. Go figure). After collecting enough arrows in my bleeding back, I traveled again.
Did a bit more with competitive intelligence research projects. One for Bank of America and CitiBanks ATM s/w supplier -- interestin info. More travel. Then consulted to and ended up full-time as Director of Sales and Marketing with a CD-ROM joint venture between SONY Corporation and that almost forgotten other computer pioneer, Gary Killdall. (The CPM guy Bill Gates stole the IBM account from, hence spawning a worldwide DOS empire and now returning to a courtroom near you with buggy Windows, the non Y2K compliant PC software). Working, as a woman, for the Japanese was also a major pain! Spoke at lots of CD-ROM tradeshows. Felt incredibly tired and relieved when the companys President and marketing staff got laid off.
Then came one of those lifetime turning points, late in 1987. I was unexpectedly hugged by an Angel. It caused me to re-examine my life and my assumptions. Also contracted for consulting assignments with both Apple Computer and Microsoft Corporation -- had to get special dispensation to do that. Then my dad died. Dropped everything about my former life (unplugged my modem) and just studied metaphysics, sacred geometry, angels, syncronicities n other interesting stuff. Been at it for 11 years. Traveled and had lots of metaphysical adventures. Lots of stories to tell. Simultaneously, but in charge of my time off, got involved in computer imaging, mostly for landscapers, architects and interior designers. Consulted to big companies like Southern California Edison and Toyota, and trained users in mostly small businesses on that nasty PC platform. (Still LOVE my Y2K compliant Mac).
The Northridge earthquake of 1994 helped shift my livelihood interests to consciousness technology, feng shui and aromatherapy for the past several years. Lived on a mountain top developing my right brain, intuitive self, and learning to follow guidance. Plugged back into the internet a year ago, and now moved off the mountain to, unknowingly, experience Y2K in a larger pond. Oh, goody. (Useful lessons? Breathe, meditate, stay centered, hug trees, trust the Divine, connect with angels both physical and non-physical).
So, Ive been around the block, and up and down the mountain a bit. Im 47, had lots of relationships, havent met my soul mate, and still would like to encounter my twin flame. Maybe once were beyond 2000. *Sigh* -- if the planet gets it.
My vote for the Y2K shift is -- create a 5, or better, a centerpoint-- no matter how bad the illusion looks. Afterwards, for those still left, change the way we live and work, create community and global consciousness, honor others, walk softly on mother earth, live in peace and cherish love. For those departing during Y2K, plan to enjoy the adventures awaiting, beyond the other side.
Diane
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 13, 1998.
Just wanted to point out that I like this place. You guys are intelligent people (which is a big contrast with the Gary North forums, if anyone's noticed that?) If I convince anyone that y2k is enough of a threat to look up on the computer, I'm sending `em here, okay? ;)--Leo
-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), November 13, 1998.
Hi, c'est MOI (think piggy) :oLeo! You will be the first champion (pun? what pun?) of a new generation! The world is going to need heros like never before, and you sound like you might be up for it. Yay!
I am (finally!) a stay at home mom, trying to write a novel but finding it hard to concentrate. I have been: college student, soldier, programmer, army dependent spouse, horse minder, donut baker, step-mother, ex-wife, new wife, new mom, telephone soliciter, bookkeeper, care-giver to elderly, telephone installer, k-mart associate, sharp-shooter (army evaluation), student pilot, cook.
Some things I still am, some things I have forgotten to list. Live up in the north part of the northeast, have husband who is a hero in my life, as well as more than a few others (cold weather rescue team leader, (one of those guys who rappels down ice cliffs to save fallen folks), FEMA engineer, officer and gentleman.
My life has not always been happy, at times it's been really awful, even by made-for-TV movie standards. Now I am without doubt the luckiest person I know. I give thanks more than daily.
I think that Y2K will be a 10 if that's as high as the scale goes. I think the best we can hope for is that all of the weapons of mass destruction have non-compliant embedded systems.
-- Arewyn (nordic@northnet.net), November 13, 1998.
I like these threads. It's always good to "meet the neighbors" as it were.Quick Bio - live in NYC, currently the "technologist" for a Design/Ad/ Research/Brand Strategy agency, have been a computer professional for 10 years now. At last tally I have been to 300 companies of various sizes and flavors to work on PCs. While this does not give me the experience to know whether the "big computers" will be ready, it gives me a broad enough understanding of the corporate and governmental animal to be convinced that in the current "system" there is not a single organization that is not completely on the edge all of the time. (if not completely out of control)
I've spent 7 of my adult years living in two "Intentional Communities" (hippie communes?) one in S.F. one in NYC. Have studied various themes in history, psychology and religion, and while I have not specialized, I believe I have a broad enough understanding of the human animal and the civilizations that it creates to be convinced that the idea of "It Can't Happen Here" (which is amazingly prevelant in this culture) is a sad and dangerous delusion.
Eastabrook and WDCY2K 8, Edwards 5.
My aging parents live in a small suburban town an hour from the city. Other family members are all Y2K aware and we are preparing to be there for as long as it takes. I envision all of the neighbors tearing down the fences and shrubs between the back yards to build a multi- acre garden. We can't be in the woods, and I think (hope) a small, tightly knit town like this will be safe. I believe my commune experience will come in handy.
In the meantime, I would like to have a beer or three with any Y2K aware folks in the NYC area. Any takers? I'm buying the first round...
-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), November 13, 1998.
Oh wow, I've just finished reading the old "about you" threads, which I never knew were there! This is awesome. Thanks Gayla! I'm printing them all. Here's my bit: <---revised "bit" to "book" after I finished writing ;-)I'm 37, married to same man 18 years (also have 2 wedding anniversary dates, the first had to be a quick civil one since I was going to be kicked out of the country ;-) ) with 3 kids, 17f 15b 12b. At 17 I left Quebec to come study in the US, I wanted to learn English by living it for better job opportunities in Canada. I had in mind not to stop at English and go to Venezuela for my next stop and learn Spanish, but my plans got nicked in the bud pretty quickly when I met my future husband. Only regret I have is only knowing 2 languages. First kid came soon after when I was almost 20. That sort of slowed down my college studies, but I managed to graduate from nursing school with a lot of determination and falling asleep at my desk (finding time to study was hard, I had to revert to dump everything on my husband's lap after dinner some nights, slamming the front door shut, and go study in the car in a quiet parking lot. Pressure turned me nasty at times...but I was determined(sheepish grin.) Managed to graduate with honors, that got my husband proud and he forgave me everything ;-))
I was fascinated with computers by age 15, had learn some basic programming at school. I wanted to become a programmer then, but was discouraged by teachers and parents. "Programming is for boys". Blah. I indulged myself a course in programming in a business institute 6 years or so ago, was mostly COBOL II, we brushed on C. My 12 year old son is the image of me in many ways, but better. He is what I wish I was/had at his age. He is a computer and programming enthusiast as I am and he's been to programming camp the past 2 summers. We learn C together at home as a mom/son hobby. He's also the one who supports me the most with Y2K in my immediate family. The other 2 kids are more of my non-techie hubby's side, and although they trust in my judgement, they don't understand or grasp the consequences and magnitude/complexity as my 12 year did. The older 2 accept the preparations, but have asked me quiet frankly to shield them from the horrifying details. Like my 15 year old son said "mom, I know you and dad will do what's best for us, but please stop talking about it, it scares me too much and I need to sleep at night and concentrate on my school and social life. I want to live in peace and have fun while I can." Life had become quiet stressful in our house when I woke up to y2k this past march (I was aware of y2k since my Cobol stint, but thought then it'd be all fixed in time) when I read the article in Wired Magazine. I started reading 6-8 hours/day everything I could find about it on the net for about 2 weeks before I started talking to my husband about it. He thought I was nuts and in need of a psychiatrist until early October. Things started appearing in the news and local paper then, and he started paying close attention and reading what I had been printing for him. We've now made some real commitments to preparations. We just bought a small house back in Quebec in good y2k friendly location with water sources etc. and not completely isolated, but with the right kind of people I want to be around when SHTF. I don't believe living in isolation is safe. We'll need good neighbors, y2k aware and prepared to weather this. Plus, I don't believe nukes are pointed at Quebec, or even Canada. That's one worry I don't have to dwell on (don't want to know if they are pointed towards Canada). I was raised in -40 degree winters, so I'm experienced in what we'll need to survive without electricity in the cold winter. Plus I love the snow, I've missed it here in cold and humid snowless Philly. I've always been proud to be self-sufficient, so I guess that carries over with Y2K too. We'll manage somehow, if we're lucky to keep our health in good enough shape.
Well enough of me, I could write a book on nothing (must be a woman thing ;)) My guess is it's going to hit at least 8, gradually. 10's for sure in some areas, and in a lot of countries. US and Canada will be among countries who fare the best at an eventual 8 IMO (why 8? why not, had to pin down one number). But we all could be wrong. It could be worse(I forget who said that). The more I read and learn, the more I find bright minds who predict TEOTWAWKI. In my experience, predictions have almost always been wrong and under-rated/stated. Optimist nature of humans. I'm an optimist too, or I wouldn't be a survivor otherwise, I'd put my head in a gas oven to end it, with what I've learned and know so far. But I'm trying to be a realist here, and honestly say what I think deep down. I keep hope, and I make a conscious effort to stop thinking/talking about it when I become too stressed and start feeling down. Preparation wise, I forgo the generator. Useless if we go to 8+, the problems will last too long then. Going with wood stove and manual kitchen/carpenter tools etc. Stocking on cans for as much foods as possible (Heinz ketchup even comes in a can for example), and stockpiling perishables like flour/grains/sugar last. I'll run buy them at the first sign panic might ensue. I'll stock up as much as my little house's closet and storage space can hold. Haven't studied the seeds yet, don't know anything about hybrid/non-hybrid and what to get. But I can garden, I've done it as a hobby for years and have a green thumb (I never really got much into it, I just bought what my neighbors or friends recommended or what looked good in garden centers and always reaped a bounty.)
BTW, I disagree that this forum is a good cross section of American people. Most here are professionals with high credentials/education as compared to the average, with at least some computer/programming background, or married to one that has some. That's one of the reasons why I think it will be so bad; some coming events will take the average person, the masses outside our "in the know" y2k circles, by surprise, confusion and panic. Panicking people are dangerous, either physically or with decisions they make. The snowball will be off and running down the mountain, unstoppable. But this forum is certainly showing we're "average" in that we're not wacko extremists.
Good luck to all of us. I too wish we could all be neighbors :-)
-- Chris (Catsy@pond.com), November 13, 1998.
Well.. I have been lurking for about 4 months now... Time for me to contribute something...Whats there to know about me..? Hmnn.. I am born and raised in germany and moved to the U.S. when I was 19. Graduated german high school and was done with a business apprenticeship (Yeah, people actually learn a REAL trade over there... hehehehe.) When I had a little falling out with my father... We are both stubborn as mules and disagree on nearly EVERYTHING... Except on which is the greatest soccer team on earth (F.C.Bayern Muenchen if ya have to ask...) I digress... Left the house the next morning... On my way to work had one of those *life* changing moments... Stopped at a dealership, sold my car for cash and hitchhiked to Frankfurt. Bought a plane ticket and there I was in N.Y.City with about $450, "no speaking the english" and nowhere to go... Traveled around the U.S. off and on for about 2 years working different jobs like maid (got a promotion after three days.. moved from Toilet bowls to ashtrays and beds), waiter,various factorys, dance instructor (tango, walz etc..), painter, file clerk, night auditor, front desk clerk,maintenanceman,Director of Sales, Assistant GM (hotel industry is great for bums like me),before finally settling down in Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas.
Worked my way up from feeding big xerox mainframe printers to now being a computer consultant(Networks, NT, Novell, etc.).
Married to a great, patient, kind, loving woman for 4 years now... (Hey.. I love her.. nough said)
Discovered Y2K about 6 months ago... Thought of it as a bunch of hype at first then read more and more about it. Some days I am on a scale of 10+ other days I am on maybe a 3.5 -4. Honestly I really don't know... I do - however trust that the goverment will not get it all under control and fixed as well as take care of all of us.... (someone got to go work and pay taxes and produce goods.. right...?)
I am letting folks at work know about Y2K... At first I was the crazy german... Now they hear more and more in the media and are asking questions...
Love this forum and like the educated and varied opinions here... Bunch of people from very different backgrounds that are mostly highly educated...(what the hell am I doing here..?)
One problem I have is how to raise y2k awareness without putting yourself at risk by having everyone show up at your house New Years Day 00. Well, if someone has any suggestions, let me know.. Besides that let's just plug along, buy another can of tuna every day and hope for the best....
And someone (might as well be me) got to store a bunch of soccer balls... The game must go on after all.... (okay, I let you bring a couple pucks and hockey sticks... but where the heck is the ice here in texas except at Reunion >Go Stars<)
Ohh.. if anybody is interested in getting together over a cup of chocolate (sorry I don't drink) here in DFW... let me know... I live in Arlington...
scholty
sorry for ramling...
-- scholty (scholty@waymark.net), November 13, 1998.
Hi,This is a little long and maybe boring for the non-techies but I wanted to give you all an idea of my background before I give you my two E-ratings.
I'm a transplanted 40 year old Brit from London now living in sunny/foggy San Francisco, been here 5 years, love the country, love England too. I'm a computer professional, a Dinosaur if you will. Left school at 18 and straight in to British Airways IT department as a "Tape Ape" - nothing like starting at the bottom! Hey, but it was great fun, 18, well paid (relatively), cheap flights, saw the world over the next ten years. As a tape ape you would sit at a printer, and as programmes would run the printer would spew out the VSN's (Volume Serial Numbers) of the tapes to load and you would jump up and load the tapes (manually, thread it through the tape drive onto the take-up spool). Got really quick, maybe 4-5 a minute. Usually two or three of us doing it, kept us fit, radio on, time passed quickly. Then it was a series of promotions to printer operator, output distributor, data controller, trainee operator (4 year course - excellent training), and so on up to eventually a shift leader in charge of 15 operators at Heathrow running about 15 different systems.
At 27 I went to Saudi Arabia and helped install the first realtime airline reservations system for Saudia. Promoted to realtime Coverage programmer, learnt Assembler (Aaaarrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhh!!!!). Then on to System One in Miami, Amadeus in Munich, American Airlines in Tulsa, SNCF (the French Railroad) in Lille, back to BA for the latest training, then finally to a major credit card company located in the Bay Area beginning with "V".
The point is all these positions have been with major mainframe systems, using predominantly legacy software, in a bunch of different countries. They have all been working with Realtime systems. These realtimes systems have been patched over the last 30-40 years to the extent that would boggle the mind. New technologhy had been layered over old. There has usually been no consistency in sticking with the same hardware manufacturers for ease of maintenance etc. This will add to the upcoming problems.
Many people have no concept of what a mainframe is - we live in a PC culture after all. What I can see as clear as day is the interconnectivity problem bewteen these mainframes, the networks, satellites, land lines, telecommunications, the power grid etc. etc. - this is what is going to bring the house of cards down.
Visa and Mastercard are now "compliant" - yeah right. This has not been proven, it cannot be proven without live realtime testing with live data in a real world situation. Visa interacts with 100,000 member banks worldwide. The vast majority of these banks will in no way be compliant. Therefore they will be sending Visa bad data, our "compliant" Visa programmes will route or modify this data according to the programme specifications, but the routed/modified data will in many/most cases by innacurate/corrupt. Assuming it gets delivered to the next entity in a corrupt state, that next entity that may or may not be compliant will in turn route or modify the data. The result of this scenario, in my humble opinion, will be total, worldwide chaos in the banking community.
Talking about cultures - the reason myself and a whole boatload of mainly Brits and Americans got to work in these countries in the first place was because there was no local expertise. In many cases, after all these years, this is *still* the case. Even now the data centres (other than AA at Tulsa), are nearly all run by foreign expats. When TSHTF these expats will be gone, vamoosed, why would they stay?
Saudia will be toast.
SNCF certainly. Amadeus/BA/AA have got to fail for the reasons outlined above. Visa too - despite starting several years ago along with Mastercard. Garbage in, Garbage out. That's the way it will work. Not taking into account electricity and telecommunications, if either one fails were done for. The consequences will be catastrophic in my opinion - unless I'm missing something, maybe my logic is faulty?
Working with these mainframes and telecomms sytems it's a wonder that thing work as they do now - next year there will be absolutely no chance.
So what am I doing? Well, I've just resigned. Porsche is up for sale (anyone want a beautiful '79 911SC? No? neither do I - I cn do far more with the maoney). Put my 401K into the safest overnight money market-type account earning no interest - but at least I can sleep at night relatively speaking;-) (I did this 5 months ago - I'm really suprised the markets have held up this long - watch this space!).
Come January I will cash out and pay my tax penalties. The 10% will not be due until, guess what, March of 2000! If there's an IRS around then I'll pay them. So in the meantime I'm hoping that things stay stable enough so I can get some money and start to make a few practical plans in early '99. Also I'm working on my family - my younger brother drives a cab here in the city and he "get's it". He hears things in his cab and is getting very worried. He's a gret source of information in that regard.He is buying physical gold. Lat week he piad $304 for a gold eagle. Today it is $312+... We are both playing a few gold options but probably will not be able to collect even if we are right. My older brother in LA has come around, he trusts my judgement and is taking it seriously now that I've resigned etc. He feels powerless as he's pretty broke and can't afford to do much. That's where I and little bruv will come in - so, to sum up a rather depressing post I'm going for a 10 and a 5.
Great forum this - I've learned a lot, great people, you should be proud of yourselves.
Cheers, Andy
-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 13, 1998.
Welcome, welcome to all lurkers now out from their hidey-holes.....We only bite a little here...and if somebody draws blood, some of us Mommies send them to their rooms....Scholty..you caught my eye...I am almost all german from previous wave immigrants...but something you said really resonates with what we say in our house about education in amerika...you said:
***Graduated german high school and was done with a business apprenticeship (Yeah, people actually learn a REAL trade over there... hehehehe.) ****
My soulmate is a piano technician...went to a trade school...not something encouraged these days in the US...consequently nobody knows how to do anything except punch keys on a computer. We saw on public television in the last year about how apprentices in germany spend a year "sanding"...to learn how...about the process of bringing someone up to snuff in a trade like piano rebuilding...piano making...
Perhaps after Y2K sensibleness will prevail and people will actually be taught things that matter....how to build something...My dad recently said (he is 70 and an inventor, patented)...I worry for your children...no one knows how to build anything...
Scuse me everyone for taking up bandwidth..but wanted to say hi and comment to Scholty. Danke.
-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), November 13, 1998.
Hello y2k discussants...what a motley crew, this place is fun. Who are you and what do you want...what have you got and where are you going with that (in 1000 words or less). I started this life cycle in Detroit, Michigan mid 1957, my name given as Jonathon. The typo was fixed in 1975 but I always go by Jon anyway.
I moved from Highland Park in Detroit to suburban Birmingham in 1965, then to Ann Arbor in 1975 through about 1989. After getting a BS in Computer and Communication Science from U of Mich, I did bioengineering research at an ophthalmology lab there for most of the 1980s. I moved to the SF Bay area and did RK research for a year in 1989, then moved to San Diego area to do iris research and to live in a comfortable climate. My lifestyle preferences are described separately. I branched into website development a few years ago and am only now starting a website of my own. I have a partner with daughter and live in "the city in the country" but closer to the "country" part.
I mostly work as a research procedures analyst, specializing in image processing and geometric modeling in various areas of research. In the later 1970s and early 1980s I worked on several AI projects in computer vision, in the 1980s it was especially epidemiology, statistical studies of Risk Survival, predictive models of surgical outcome, corneal topography, biocompatibility, biomechanical properties modeling using nonlinear finite-element analysis of empirical force-displacement relationships, and analytic tissue mechanics of surgical procedures. In the early 1990s my focus was on statistical modeling of surgical effect of radial keratotomy (cut parameters and patient factors) on short and long term corneal shape (curvature and topography) and visual outcome.
More recently, work has been iris pigment research and melanogenesis, imaging technology, alternative health care methods and models, meditative methods, and models of personality and relationships. Other work since 1994 has been development of office automation, online systems, electronic marketing, website development including content preparation, data-centric website development with SQL and InterDev, PC and LAN setup and configuration, computer telephony integration, and development of photo-optical and video imaging hardware and software. The holy grail is a box in the corner that runs automatically in unattended mode like an income-producing robot, executing sales transactions and depositing proceeds into the business bank account. After I get one of these running, I will set up a farm load of them to increase the revenue stream pipeline capacity. Then I can go back to eye research.
I first heard of the magnitude of the y2k problem in 1996 with a hardcopy of Blind Man's Bluff and a year later with When Cash Is King, and have been researching the subject for much of the last year. I haven't done any online discussions until less than a month ago (too busy) and I'm a newbie on this discussion board. I used to use the Confer II system at U-M on the MTS in the mid 1980s, and at that time became aware of the usefulness of the BBS technology as an asynchronous collaborative communication medium.
The exaggeration and extremism found among the more vocal y2k players generally traces back to an all-or-nothing outlook (either everything is going to be all right or everything is going to be all wrong with X, where X=any component of the infrastructure, economy, or 'the system'). Descriptions such as 'domino effect' and 'cascading failures' conjure up visions of technology collapsing with all components crashing down once and for all. This form of oversimplification triggers fear of threat to progress, and the possibility of chaos becomes a strong motivator toward proselytization. Total failure seems unlikely to me, and in the general subjective scales I am about at the 7.5 position on Y2k severity during the years 1999 and 2000, with worsening due to secondary effects after that. I think the y2k body count (casualty rate) over the next two years will be less than 0.1% of the global population, but that ecology problems will claim 10 to 100 times (or more) this amount of life over the next 10 years. In other words, there are worse threats further around the corner, and y2k is our introduction to the main body of work, y2.00Xk. Community cooperation is the best way to get through the 'naught'.
My view is that the technological 'progress' of science and industry that led to computers has had a hidden development cost, the compromise of earth's natural ecology. This has become significant with population explosion. The down payment on this item has been paid, and we are now looking at recurring charges that are likely to increase. The y2k bug is a wake-up call to move away from reliance on technology (especially the profitably cheap but primitive and dirty methods of burning fossil fuel for mechanical and electrical power) which is necessary because even worse disruptions are to be expected from the imbalanced and toxic planetary ecology. Y2k is getting us ready for y2.00Xk, which will see many greater problems that will make y2k seem like a new years party. The y2k threat (both the real and imagined components) will motivate adaptation toward the information economy and a new spiritual outlook as the old system collapse under their own weight. I expect to see anti-gravity technology and fuel-cell power surface once the electricity and oil cartels experience chronic failures. Earth's population is rising the same way a patch of mold grows in a petri dish: a sigmoid curve that flattens out as the physical limits to growth are reached. The population curve cannot keep going up indefinitely, it has to stabilize and flatten out.
-- Jon (jonmiles@pacbell.net), November 14, 1998.
I, too, was unaware of this "what about you" thread. I first have to say that I love to visit this site. For the most part, everyone here is level headed and deals with Y2k in fairly practical terms.With that said, my background is not impressive. I am in my mid-twenties, attending a local college - majoring in English. I am not a techie, but have sufficient (self-taught) knowledge of the computer industry. I work for a local telecommunications company which is also where I first learned of y2k. The company has been stressing heavily the importance of y2k all year - giving everyone has the impression things will turn out fine and the bug is just something that will take a few minor fixes. Then I get a phone call from a friend telling me to look up y2k on the internet. The rest, as some say, is history.
I would have to go along with Diane on the ratings. Middle of the road 5 and 3. Okay, maybe 6 and 3.5.
Again, everyone's contributions are much appreciated.
-- Christine (a@newbie.com), November 14, 1998.
For those who can't find the other "What about You" threads:"OUR" What about you thread...
-- Buddy (DC) (buddy@bellatlantic.net), November 16, 1998.