Experts here warn that China
could suffer everything from severe disruptions in power and water to
lesser but still expensive glitches in telecommunications, banking,
public health and transportation. And China's woes could
spill over to Hong Kong, where banks, brokerage firms and shipping
companies with close ties to the mainland are worried about lost cargo
and missing payments. "China is very, very behind in
Y2K contingency planning," said Joseph Sweeney, director of
research at the Hong Kong office of Gartner Group, a research firm
that specializes in the Year 2000 problem. "There's no way many
of their organizations will come up to speed in time."
Yet so little is known about the nature of the problem
here that the experts are often reduced to a digital-age version of
reading tea leaves as they scrounge for clues about how and where
China will be affected. The dearth of data is compounded by China's
computer network -- a mix of 1960s-era mainframe machines and
pirated copies of the latest Windows software running on a variety
of personal computers. Tim Shepheard-Walwyn, the
chairman of the Global 2000 Coordinating Group, a consortium of 300
banks that monitors Year 2000 compliance, said he did not have enough
information even to make a judgment about
China. ============== &n
bsp; It is an ABSURDITY to say that 'not enough is known'
to make a decision about China. Patently
ABSURD. From the SAME article: If the
Chinese banks suffer computer malfunctions, it would paralyze
hundreds of millions of dollars of settlements within days.
One big problem is that an estimated 96 percent of the
software in China is pirated. Software manufacturers generally refuse
to repair products not sold under a license. Faced with buying a
license to become Year 2000 compliant, many Chinese companies simply
opt to leave their equipment alone. But Chen said
there were potential trouble spots. The plant that supplies two-thirds
of Beijing's water cannot be shut down for testing, and Chen said he
did not know whether its computers
were vulnerable. But Pollayannas will always
assert that they do not have enough information. Even a letter from
God would be insufficient. The fact of the matter is that
China is about to dissolve taking a great deal of the rest of Asia
with them, and by extension, the rest of the
world. <http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/05/biztech/articl
es/11year.html>
-- Paul Milne If you live within
five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.
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http://www.deja.com/
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