Heating oil prices in Maine began trending up right after the CDC. The "colder than normal" winter argument is completely bogus -- except for a brief spell of cold and snow in late Jan/feb, winter has been relatively mild in New England. In fact, didn't I read just today that this winter is yet another record-breaker for warmth in North America? OPEC supposedly began cutting back production early last year, after oil hit $11 a barrel. The big increases, though, didn't hit until Jan/Feb of this year, when supposedly deliberate cutbacks combined with a much higher-than-normal number of refinery problems. Possibilities:(posted 9655 days ago)OPEC is actually making a production quota stick for a change and reaping the benefits.
The oil fields and refineries are having real y2k problems, can't admit them for legal/economic reasons, and so they're trying to make a virtue of necessity.
The Hubbert Curve is kicking in. North Sea fields have peaked already. Is it possible that the Saudis and others are also seeing problems already? Seems unlikely, so maybe they're just trying to make the supply last as long as possible. Delicate balancing act -- cut production, make up the loss on higher prices, but without kicking off a major recession or increasing the use of alternate energy sources, all while holding off/paying off the fundamentalist mullahs to stay in power. Not a good time to be a Saudi prince.