Ed,(posted 8143 days ago)I agree with you as far as the consumer market goes. I don't think it's going to happen quite as fast as some industry types think it will but I can see the day when there is little or no film-based photography in this market.
As far as the fine art market goes, I think it will exist for quite some time albeit on a much smaller scale. Classes at arts centers are full up as soon as registration starts - there will always be new b/w fine arts photographers just like there are always new painters and sculptors.
So maybe in 15 years Kodak will only be offering Tri-X, Plus-X and Tmax 100 from their new 'state of the art facility.' Ilford may only be offering Delta 100,400 and 3200. But companies like Bergger and others that will spring up to service this market will be providing materials. It's a lot cheaper and easier for a small company to service a market of, say 200,000 world-wide than it would be for a company the size of Eastman Kodak.
Or maybe I'm just being optimistic.
*sigh*